به جمع مشترکان مگیران بپیوندید!

تنها با پرداخت 70 هزارتومان حق اشتراک سالانه به متن مقالات دسترسی داشته باشید و 100 مقاله را بدون هزینه دیگری دریافت کنید.

برای پرداخت حق اشتراک اگر عضو هستید وارد شوید در غیر این صورت حساب کاربری جدید ایجاد کنید

عضویت

جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « مدل های تحلیلی » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

تکرار جستجوی کلیدواژه « مدل های تحلیلی » در نشریات گروه « علوم انسانی »
  • نادر زالی*، سید علی سجادی اصل، سامان ابی زاده

    استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد به دلیل برخورداری از منابع با ارزش و حیاتی و همچنین موقعیت خاص جغرافیایی می تواند به عنوان یکی از قطب های مهم صنعتی کشورتبدیل گردد ولی نتوانسته به درستی مسیر توسعه را طی کند و به عنوان یک استان محروم شناخته می شود. لذا هدف اصلی در پژوهش حاضر شناسایی نقاط قوت و ضعف و بیان پتانسیل ها و تهدیات استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد و ارائه برنامه استراتژیک جهت توسعه آن می باشد. این پژوهش از نظر هدف جزء پژوهش های کاربردی و به لحاظ روش از نوع تبینی می باشد و بر اساس ماهیت داده ها از نوع پژوهش های کیفی است. جامعه آماری آن شامل مدیران ارشد استان می باشد که از این میان 23 نفر به صورت نمونه انتخاب شدند. برای جمع آوری اطلاعات، از دو روش اسنادی و میدانی و برای تحلیل داده ها از مدل SWOT و تلفیق آن با AHP استفاده شد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می دهد، برخورداری از منابع نفت و گاز و منابع معدنی فراوان، موقعیت جغرافیایی و ارتباطی مناسب بین منطقه ای به عنوان مهم ترین نقاط قوت و نبود کارخانجات صنعتی و معدنی، ضعف شدید زیرساخت های لازم در مراکز شهری،عدم توجه به سکونت گاه های روستایی به عنوان مهم ترین نقاط ضعف استان شناخته شده است. امکان توسعه فعالیت های باغداری، زنبورداری، قابلیت بالای پرورش دام و پروش آبزیان به عنوان مهم ترین فرصت های و بیرون ماندن استان از فضای شبکه اقتصادی کشور، عدم شکل گیری ارتباط قوی بین سکونتگاه ها، نبود بستر امنیتی مناسب برای سرمایه گذاران به عنوان مهم ترین تهدیدات استان شناخته شده است. که بر اساس این نقاط قوت و ضعف و فرصت ها و تهدیدات، جهت توسعه استان راهبردهای پیشنهاد گردید.

    کلید واژگان: برنامه ریزی استراتژیک, مدل های تحلیلی, راهبردهای توسعه منطقه ای, استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد, تحلیل AHP-SWOT}
    Nader Zali *, Seyed Ali Sajjadi Asl, Saman Abizadeh

    Kohgiluyeh and Boyerahmad province, due to its valuable resources and geographic location, can be considered as one of the important industrial hubs, but it has not been able to properly traverse the development path and is recognized as a disadvantaged province. The main purpose of this study is identifying the strengths and weaknesses of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and Providing Development Strategic Plan. The study, in terms of purpose is an applied one and In terms of method it is kind of explanatory and and on the basis of data nature is a qualitative research. The statistical population includes senior managers of the province from which 23 individuals were selected. Documentary and field methods have been used to data collection. Data analysis has been carried out by SWOT Model, Combining it with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). results of investigating current situation in this province indicate that abundant oil, gas and mineral resources, appropriate geographical and communication location between regionsas the most important strengths, and lack of factories, industrial and mineral workshops, severe weakness in necessary infrastructure of urban centers, and lack of paying attention to rural settlements are known as the weaknesses in this province. possibility to develop activities such as horticulture, animal husbandry and fish breeding are considered as the most important opportunity and staying away from country's economic network, lack of strong connection between settlements, lack of security context to investors have been recognized as the most important threats to this province. Based on these strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, suggested strategies for the development of the province.

    Introduction

     Access to national and regional development is the great ideal of any nation, and realizing this, requires that the planners and policymakers within a detailed understanding of the state of the country and the region select the best models to determine the path of development (Pourmohammadi and Zali, 2009: 33). One of the important tasks of development planners is to assess and identify the development potentials of geographical areas, so that this knowledge can provide the basis for improvement and development of areas (Parizadi et al., 2012: 27). For this purpose, to understand the differences in the level of development of the regions, it is necessary to first examine the current status of each region and then accordingly regional planning can be done to reduce or eliminate the differences (Ismailzadeh and Partners, 2016: 84). Therefore, studying and identifying regional areas and analyzing their capabilities and bottlenecks is of great importance in the process of regional development planning, and awareness of these opportunities and bottlenecks is nowadays a necessity for presenting development schemes and plans (Einali et al., 2016: 60).

    Methodology

     This research is an applied research in terms of purpose, and based on the nature of the data, is a Mixed-method research. The statistical population includes senior managers of the province. The research is a survey research in terms of data gathering, which uses a combination of both documentary and field methods to collect the required data. In order to conduct this research, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the province were identified and these factors were rated by experts including experts in the field of development and the most important strategies were obtained. Finally, according to these strategies, a strategic regional development plan for the province's development was presented. To analyze the data using SWOT analysis and its integration with the AHP model, the most important development potentials and constraints of the province were extracted and strategies were presented to remove development obstacles in the province.

    Findings

    In the present study, using high-level plans such as Provincial Spatial Plan, provincial development document and according to experts in this field, the most important internal factors (strengths and weaknesses) and the most important external factors (opportunities and threats)  presented In the tabular form. Then, considering the variety of issues using Strategic Analysis technique (SWOT), the conditions affecting the developments in the province and their effectiveness were investigated. Then the most important internal factors including strengths and weaknesses as well as the most important external factors affecting the status of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad province in the format of opportunities and threats were identified and evaluated based on the AHP process. Since the questionnaire of this research was paired comparisons, it was not necessary to measure validity and reliability and the accuracy of the responses was calculated by calculating the adaptation rate. Each of the SWOT factors has a number of sub-criteria and in AHP method these sub-criteria are compared in pairs. After the data collection, Expert choice 11 software was used to perform the calculations. Accordingly, pairwise comparison of SWOT factors in AHP format was carried out to plan for development of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province

    Conclusion

    Therefore, using SWOT analytical model results, the approaches and strategies for provincial development planning were divided into four aggressive, adaptive, contingent and defensive strategies as follows: SO Strategy: Aggressive-Action Strategies (Maximum-Maximum): - Proper context for establishing constructive economic interactions with neighboring provinces, especially southern provinces, to create dynamics in the province's commercial sector.-Provincial industrial development in the field of oil and gas as the basic economy of the province.- Facilitating the exploitation of mines in the province taking into account environmental principles and sustainable development and avoiding crude sales and enhancing the value added of the mining sector with the development of mineral processing industries. -Facilitating and serious efforts to accelerate the development of the province's agricultural sector and increase hydro-electric power generation through adequate annual rainfall. WO strategy, adaptive strategy, (minimum - maximum): - Establishment of industrial and mining factories and workshops and development of oil and gas related activities in the province with regard to the capability and availability of mineral and industrial resources in the province and the possibility Development of the province in the field of oil and gas.- Strengthen and properly organize communication networks, both by land, air and rail, in the province, and establish strong links with ports in the south of the country to promote economic and commercial activities at national and transnational levels.-Special attention to rural areas of the province with emphasis on growth and development of activities such as gardening, beekeeping, animal husbandry, aquaculture and establishment and promotion of infrastructure and superior services in urban centers of the province with the aim of attracting surplus rural population and Preventing migration from the villages of this province to the prosperous provinces in the country.  ST Strategy, Contingency Strategy (Maximum - Minimum): - Establish strong linkages between provincial settlements and strengthen transnational communication and economic links with appropriate location across provinces. -Improve the rational and psycho-administrative structure and establish industrial organizations and settlements to secure and facilitate investment, especially in the oil and gas industries. - Optimal water engineering and proper planning to strengthen water resources management. - Improving the level of up-to-date technologies in different areas of the province's development, especially the mining sector, to enhance the province's competitiveness in national and transnational areas. WT Strategy, Defense and action Strategy, (Minimum - Minimum): - Strengthen transport lines, especially rail and air, and enhance the technology level in the province to form strong links between settlements and service centers at the provincial and country level. Serious efforts to establish major conversion industries with the aim of enhancing the dynamics of economic activity and the provincial role-playing in the national economy by providing appropriate plan to facilitate the bureaucracies governing investment and creating a safe environment for the investor. Providing superior services in the main cities of the province as a supportive and influencing population in the urban and rural centers of the province and the management of the province and the future prospects of water resources with the aim of its proper utilization, especially for the more dynamic agricultural activities in the rural settlements.

    Keywords: Strategic Planning_analytical models_regional development strategies_Kohgiluyeh_Boyer-Ahmad Province_AHP – SWOT Analysis}
  • مجتبی رسولی، علیرضا استعلاجی، مجید ولی شریعت پناهی
    وجود سابقه برنامه ریزی توسعه در ایران، نابرابری های منطقه ای در روستاهای کشور مشهود است. بحث نابرابری توسعه در میان روستاها از موضوعاتی است که اخیرا در فرهنگ برنامه ریزی منطقه ای مطرح شده است و هنوز در کشور ما جایگاه چندان مشخصی ندارد. بررسی جنبه های مختلف اقتصادی - اجتماعی، محیطی و... مناطق و تحلیل آنها به صورت نسبی بیانگر میزان برخورداری، سطح رفاه و توسعه یافتگی آن ها می باشد نابرابری های توسعه ای که به دلایل متعددی نظیر دلایل تاریخی، طبیعی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی و سیاسی و... ایجاد می شوند رشد ناهمگون و نامتعادل میان نواحی را سبب خواهند شد. در این تحقیق به بررسی سطح توسعه یافتگی دهستان های شهرستان ساوه در مقطع زمانی کنونی (آمارهای رسمی سال 1390)، با استفاده از 103 شاخص سنجش توسعه در 9 بخش آموزشی، فرهنگی، سیاسی-اداری، زیربنایی، بهداشتی، بازرگانی-خدمات، ارتباطات و حمل و نقل، جمعیتی-اقتصادی و کالبدی از طریق مدل تحلیلی تاکسونومی عددی پرداخته شده است. هدف از این تحقیق شناسایی میزان برخورداری و محرومیت دهستان های شهرستان ساوه با استفاده از مدل های تحلیلی یکپارچه و ارائه الگوی بهینه خدمات رسانی می باشد. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از تحقیق سطح توسعه یافتگی دهستان های شهرستان ساوه در بخش های مختلف متفاوت می باشد. اما در بیشتر بخش ها توسعه یافته ترین دهستان طراز ناهید و توسعه نیافته ترین دهستان شاهسونکندی می باشد. بیشترین دامنه تغییرات و انحراف معیار رتبه مربوط به دهستان های آق کهریز و بیات و کمترین تغییر مربوط به بقیه دهستان ها می باشد.
    کلید واژگان: توسعه یافتگی, مدل های تحلیلی, دهستان های ساوه, مدل تاکسنومی عددی}
    Mojtaba Rasoul, Alireza Estelaji, Majid Vali Shariatpanahi
    Despite the history of development planning in Iran, regional inequalities are evident in the country's villages. The discussion of developmental inequality among villages is one of the issues recently raised in the regional planning culture and is still not very clear in our country. The study of different aspects of socioeconomic, environmental and ... regions and their analysis shows the level of enjoyment, the level of well-being and their development. Developmental inequalities for various reasons such as historical, natural, social, economic and Political and ... will create a heterogeneous and unbalanced growth of the regions. In this research, the level of development of rural districts of Saveh in the current time (official statistics of 2011) was assessed using 103 indicators of developmental assessment in 9 educational, cultural, political, administrative, health, business, services, communications And transport, demographic, and physical, through a numerical taxonomic analysis model. The purpose of this research is to identify the extent and deprivation of villages in Saveh city using integrated analytical models and provide an optimal service model. Based on the results of the research, the level of development of villages in Saveh city is different in different parts. But in most of the districts, the most developed villages of Nahid are the most undeveloped Shahsavankandi village. The highest range of variation and standard deviation is related to the villages of Agh-Kahriz and Bayat and the least change is related to the rest of the villages.
    Keywords: Keywords: development, analytical models, Saveh districts, numerical taxonomic model}
  • عیسی ابراهیم زاده، محسن سقایی، الهام ایزدفر، نجمه ایزدفر
    امروزه با توجه به گسترش و رشد فعالیت های اقتصادی و اجتماعی در ایران و جهانو به تبع آن لزوم جابجایی سریع مردم، کالا و خدمات در نتیجه افزایش روز افزون تقاضا، بخش حمل و نقل هوایی را یک ضرورت اجتناب ناپذیر ساخته است. از طرفی، ایجاد و گسترش فرودگاه ها نیز نیازمند فضای قابل توجهی در مجاورت شهر ها بوده که این امر مستلزم برنامه ریزی و سرمایه گذاری مناسب می باشد. در عین حال تولید سفرهای هوایی از طریق فرودگاه های مختلف متاثر از عوامل گوناگون خواهد بود. این مقاله با استناد به داده های آماری در خصوص تعداد مسافر ورودی و خروجی جابجا شده توسط هواپیمایی جمهوری اسلامی طی سال های 1384- 1380 به طور ماهیانه از فرودگاه اصفهان، توریست های وارد شده به مهمانخانه های اصفهان طی سال های فوق، رتبه بندی استان های کشور بر اساس فعالیت های اقتصادی و صنعتی و جایگاه اصفهان دراین رتبه بندی، وجود نقاط حادثه خیز جاده ای که به استان اصفهان ختم می شوند و مسافت بین اصفهان و سایر شهر هایی که از این مبدا به آنها پرواز صورت می گیرد و غیره، به تجزیه و تحلیل آماری یافته ها با استفاده از روش های آماری رگرسیون خطی، تحلیل واریانس، سری های زمانی و مدل جاذبه پرداخته است. هدف اصلی در این مقاله پاسخ به این سوال مهم بوده که چه عواملی در تولید سفرهای هوایی به فرودگاه اصفهان تاثیرگذار و موثر بوده است؟ برای یافتن پاسخ، مدل های تحلیلی برنامه ریزی تولید سفر و حمل و نقل هوایی مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل یافته ها با مدل جاذبه برای فرودگاه اصفهان، بیانگر آن است که تاثیر عامل فاصله در تولید سفرهای هوایی نسبت به سایر عناصر تاثیرگذار حدود است. همچنین نتایج حاصل از تحلیل مدل واریانس، در خصوص تولید سفرهای هوایی فرودگاه اصفهان و در پیش بینی کلی مدل رگرسیون خطی بر اساس سال های گذشته، مشخص گردید که عوامل اقتصادی، فعالیت صنعتی و جذب توریست مقصد، بیشترین تاثیر را در تولید سفر هوایی به این شهر داشته اند. نهایتا در پیش بینی حجم مسافر فرودگاه اصفهان تا افق زمانی1390 مشخص گردید که حمل و نقل هوایی از طریق فرودگاه اصفهان در مسیر های اصلی سیر صعودی و در سایر موارد سیر نزولی خواهد داشت.
    کلید واژگان: حمل و نقل هوایی, مدل های تحلیلی, تولید سفر هوایی, تاثیر عامل فاصله, فرودگاه اصفهان}
    I. Ebrahimzadeh, M. Saghaei, E. Izadfar, N. Izadfar
    Intro duction Provides airport, were. Because of the nature and frequency of flights of aircraft at the time and lack of continuity, noise pollution will not cause problems for society. In addition, low population density in the vicinity of airports and air traffic light, the occurrence of an accident would prevent dangerous for urban communities. The extraordinary growth of air traffic has increased the likelihood of negative reactions. But the spread and evolution of the aircraft, the most profound effect on the relationship between urban communities and the airport is laid. Increasing the size and speed of the aircraft equipment required to increase their landings and changes in construction and combination bands in the airport is functional. It also increases the power output of aircraft engines cause noise pollution is inevitably the case (Safarzadeh and Mahmoud, 1383: 84-82). 2- Theoretical Bases Theoretical and research literature Focuses on developed countries. However, research on Transport and air travel is done mainly in these countries. Extensive research in this area and so on airlines and liberalization of air transport in America and Europe in the past two decades has taken place. In particular, air transport and its functions, Gvtz (1992), Graham (1995), have done extensive research. Among the countries in which research Developed by, and Boone Lynbak (1995) about the role The government plays an important airline in the release of nascent non Industry plays in East Asia, have been discussed. Jane and Fnjyvn Analysis are made. Hooper (1998-1997) experiences and perspectives Competition and the de-airlines in India review and Rymr (1999) Spatial structure of air transportation systems in Asia and the Pacific Rim In connection with the long-range systems to consider and ultimately International Pgmh (1999) Historical development of air transport in Nigeria tested and Boone (20,000) to access the world of aviation in a home in Ross South Asia has been investigated. Savings in operating costs to consider. The use of analytical models in planning Aviation and Airport also performed relatively well in the research world Is the Bra (1989) in the company of American Airlines Airline Employment problems is a model for allocating aircraft to routes. His goal set has a different flight path of the linear programming model used in this Has been Mvlrvmstrn (1980) A mathematical program for Airlines have offered Flanyg Taygrlayn. Philip and Garkyaryaz (1981), Avslykan (1979), most research on network design, operating on minimizing the total distance traveled or fuel costs have focus. 3- Discussion Region is a range of 40 to 60 km radius in central Isfahan province; the river goes through the generator and flows from West to East (and home town of Consulting Engineers, 1375: 195). Check the status quo of the region shows that this region has one of the most complex environmental problems. Tehran, Isfahan province, the country's most important industrial poles (consulting engineers and town houses, 1375: 15-16).The airport with the roads and highways of the city has a regular road http://fa.wikipedia.org). Gravity model can be the most popular and most widely used model for the process of making the trip, he said. The distance between cities as the main factor in the production process of air travel stress.the Islamic Republic of Iran (www.flighstates.com). The average distance flown between 300 to 400 km and the city of Tehran, Ahvaz and Shiraz is concerned. The average flight time of 66 minutes of the airport to the city of Tehran, garlic, Kish Island, Mahshahr, Ahwaz, Abadan reserved. However, according to statistical data of the airport, the airport's contribution to the expansion of international flights in international traffic. Statistics also show that tourism to attract an effective role in the development of tourism in Iran (Esfahan Airport Management, 1387). The analysis was performed by using the gravity model for the coefficient of multiple determinations (), $ 22 / 0 is. This confirms the impact on air travel at a rate of 22. / 0. In fact, the effective operating distance than other elements (business, industry, tourism, space, ease of travel, etc.) is about.Isfahan are the ends, the number of air passengers to the monthly input and output between 84 to 1380, the production of air travel, using a linear regression model, the following results have been achieved.The origin of the demand for air travel to different cities have Mqsdasfhan. So with the right plan to strengthen these factors can increase the demand for air travel to a place of success achieved. 4- Conclusion 78. / 0 in production is to take effect. Air travel has been in production.Abbas, Isfahan, Shiraz, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Abadan ascending and the routes to Isfahan, Isfahan and Zahedan, Bandar Abbas to Isfahan will deteriorate. The flights from Tehran to Isfahan is a variable in the years 1387 - 1385 years of soaring and in 1389 - 1388 will decline. Suggestions City or school because of economic, industrial and tourism in the country's top stars and has the elasticity needed in this area.
نکته
  • نتایج بر اساس تاریخ انتشار مرتب شده‌اند.
  • کلیدواژه مورد نظر شما تنها در فیلد کلیدواژگان مقالات جستجو شده‌است. به منظور حذف نتایج غیر مرتبط، جستجو تنها در مقالات مجلاتی انجام شده که با مجله ماخذ هم موضوع هستند.
  • در صورتی که می‌خواهید جستجو را در همه موضوعات و با شرایط دیگر تکرار کنید به صفحه جستجوی پیشرفته مجلات مراجعه کنید.
درخواست پشتیبانی - گزارش اشکال