جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « کشورهای صادرکننده ی نفت » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

Concentrating on inflation persistence, this paper explores inflation dynamics in 12 oil-exporting countries with Dynamic Non-linear Panel models in 2002-2014. According to results, the level of inflation persistence in linear models is higher than the non-linear ones, so that based on OLS, fixed effects, and Arellano-Bond approaches, it is 0. 727, 0. 655, and 0. 59 respectively. With regard to the results, the estimated sign of inflation persistence is positive and statistically significant; demonstrating that current level of inflation would influence the future level of it. It can be also observed from the paper’s results that in comparison to ordered models, inflation persistence is higher in linear models. Considering heterogeneity and initial conditions, i. e. each country’s initial observed level of inflation, would make the estimations better. Empirical results demonstrate the low possibility of large jumps in inflation, and it tends to move toward higher, rather lower levels. The results reveal that the bigger the gap between existing inflation rate and target rate, the more the tendency of inflation to self-correct and move toward the desired level. Generally, the results show that inflation persistence is non-linear, and it varies depending on range of inflation rate. This means that inflation-stabilizing policies in the short-run would have long-run effects.

A Growing literature deals with an increasing number of aspects of the resource curse. One of the main areas of active research is Dutch Disease، which refers to a situation when a booming export sector increases the relative price of non-tradable goods and services، thus hurting the rest of tradable goods sector. In this study we investigate the relationship between natural resource abundance، Dutch Disease and economic growth in major petroleum exporters by using panel data for the period 1960 to 2008. The findings show that the negative effect of natural resource abundance and deficiency of institutional factors on economic growth remains after controlling for other variables such as physical investment، openness، government expenditure and changes in terms of trade that are important in a growth model. The main findings of this study show that natural resource abundance tends to increase the growth of service sector value added and the ratio of service value added to manufacturing value added in GDP and decrease the growth of manufacturing value added and share of manufacturing exports in total exports. To the extent that the service sector proxies the non-tradable sector and manufacturing the non-resource tradable sector، this provides some corroboration of the predictions of the Dutch Disease. The findings also show that the growth of manufacturing value added، changes in the share of manufacturing exports in total exports and the ratio of value added of manufacturing to services are positively correlated with economic growth. Given the direct relationship of these variables with economic growth، we can conclude that natural resource abundance، combined with structural weaknesses، leads to weakening of the industrial sector as a tradable sector and reduces industrial exports، thus lowering the growth rate of these countries. We can minimize such negative impact by minimizing exports of raw materials، as well as share of such revenues in the public budget، supporting non-oil sectors and creating modalities such as oil stabilization and reserve funds.

The The purpose of this article is to analyze the resource curse or the very inverse relation of dependence to natural resources and growth rate in oil exporting countries. To estimate the model, Unbalance Panel Data is used from 1990 to 2004. The explanatory variables in this model include natural resources abundance Index, corruption Index, physical investment, terms of trade, and Education Index. The results show that oil income, as an Index of resource abundance, is individually not harmful on economic growth, i.e. the direct effect of oil income is positive on economic growth. However, when other explanatory variables such as corruption, physical investment, terms of trade, and education are entering the model, the total effect of oil income on economic growth is estimated as negative because of the oil income effect on the variables and then on economic growth. The results, moreover, show that the physical investment increase, terms of trade growth, and education expansion has a positive effect, and corruption Index a negative one on economic growth of oil exporting countries. At the end of the article, the effect of being present in the OPEC on the member's economic growth is analyzed that the results show the negative results of that on the economic growth of the members.