فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 83 (پاییز 1392)

Abstract Iran always has first rank of pistachio production and exports in the world, but Iran’s share in world markets decreased after that United State entered in this market. It was to the point that in spite of increasing its pistachio exports, its world value share decreased from 58 percent in 2000 to 31 percent in 2008. It shows that Iran's position weaken in international market. Therefore, considering affective factors on the export demand during the past years, could improves Iran's position in the world market. Thus, the greatest importer countries of Iran’s pistachio during 1997-2006 were selected and the Iran pistachio export demand function was estimated with panel data. The results showed that Iran’s pistachio export price and the shock caused by Aflatoxin poisoning in 2004, have significantly negative effect, and the world price and real per capita income have significantly positive effect on imports of Iran’s pistachio. Also, variable exchange rate showed insignificant effects. Therefore, considering investments on production and marketing of pistachio (i.e. suitable implanting, growing and harvesting methods and also considering Aflatoxin poison) could improve export share of Iran in long-run.

Abstract The high honey nutritional value, more than 60 thousand honey producers, first production ranked in the Middle East and thirteen in the world, are the importance of honey production in Iran. The purpose of this paper is to determine the efficiency of honey production and its relationship with the hive numbers in Mazanderan province. Data is collected from the 50 producers by random sampling in 2010. According to results more unites is inefficiencies and the average efficiency is calculated about 80% and the lowest is about 60 percent. The results indicate the efficiency of different units is high. Determining effective of size on efficiency indicate that there are a”U” relationship between efficiency and size. The optimum number of beehives is 407 in every apiary that according to finding, about 84% of beekeepers are less than the above suggested record, therefore it is recommended that policies are concentrated toward larger units.

Abstract Regarding to increased subsidies and their financial burden on the government budget, have forced the government to pay more attention to reduce and to pay them in a targeted system. Hence, due to importance of agriculture and food industry in food security, this study investigates the effects of targeted subsidies of energy carriers on agriculture and food industry. For this purpose, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and social accounting matrix (SAM) for 2001 has been developed. The results indicate that by increased energy prices, intermediate cost in agriculture and food industry will increase and production will decrease deeply, leading to decrease in demand for capital input and investment and increase import of the main food items. According to the results, protection in different ways, such as tax breaks and special lending to improve production methods are suggested.

Abstract In this Article, Formulating macro-econometric model for Iran's agriculture sector has been considered with emphasis on its subsectors. In this regard, economic sectors is dividend including agriculture, oil and other sectors, and four subgroups agricultural sector has been considered including agriculture, animal husbandry and hunting, forestry and fisheries. Equations related to the supply and demand side of agriculture sector were specificated by goods and services, money, labor, foreign exchange markets in the form of equation 68 (58 behavioral equations and 10 equality) and estimated by cointegration technique in tow position, dynamic an static, using data during years 1981 to 2008. Results indicate that there is a long-term relationships between model variables and coefficients are statistically significant and consistent with theoretical expectations. Validation of estimated model has been investigated using a dynamic simulation as within the sample during period 1981-1999. The results of the Tile index calculation for some variables show that the model has been simulated the trends of endogenous variables close to the actual movement in the whole period. According to findings, exchange policies via increasing the nominal exchange rate led to increase the agricultural export in first years and decrease in last years.

Abstract In this study ARIMA and neural network auto-regressive methods for predicting retail product prices of tomatoes were Compared. The data were weekly that included the retail prices of tomatoes during 2009-2010 and gathered from Tehran fruits and vegetables organization. The results showed that non-linear neural network auto-regressive model, in predicting the retail price of tomatoes has a lower error and thus is more efficient than ARIMA.

Abstract The main goal of this study is measuring the amount of support policies and their effects on production growth for wheat. Accordingly, in this study, AMS for wheat is calculated during 1989-2009 and the existence of causality relationship between amount of support and production growth of wheat was investigated by applying Hsiao's granger causality method. Then, long-run relationship between them was investigated by applying Error Correction Model. Result showed that supports growth have not had an effect on growth of production and its yield. Only about acreage, from support growth rate to acreage growth rate for wheat, the causality relationship between them was observed. Therefore, support policies have not could comply the main goal of support policies. So, review in support policies to more attention to increase yield and transmission of subsidies from production stage to other like that marketing, distributing and etc, is suggested.

Abstract The objective of this study is to investigate Iranian exporter's market power in saffron export market. To get the objective, Lerner index as well as saffron export price specification was applied. Lerner index was also calculated using saffron demand function. In export price specification also impact of exchange rate on export price was considered using regression analysis. Export demand and export price functions were estimated using panel dataset of saffron importing countries over 1994-2008. Demand function results showed that 1% increase in GDP makes saffron demand to rise by 2.2%. Lerner index was obtained 0.3 indicating market power for Iranian exporters. Export price estimation also showed market power explicitly such that Iranian exporters are able to set different prices among the markets.

Abstract The main purpose of the study was to investigate protection policies of colza in Golestan province, as the main representative of colza production in Iran during 2003-2007. Using Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM), the effects of government interventions as payments subsidies and received taxes in producing colza have been studied. The results of estimation NPCI, NPCO, EPC indicators showed that the government allocated subsidies to inputs, but impose indirect tax to value added of production of colza during 2003-2006. Also, total effects of government intervention in both input and output markets have benefited producers in 2007. The results recommend reoriented of producers subsidies. Moreover, current and past of protection policies concentrate on development of production using intervention in market structure and making aberration in agricultural input and output price. It is suggested that review producers subsidies.

Abstract Considering the risk in agricultural economics analysis causes the producers to choose and perform appropriate policies and programs in opposition of risk. Onion is one of the main agricultural products in Iran. Farmers’ risk tendencies have been estimated in this paper using a parametric approach and Saha’s Mean- Standard Deviation Model. The data were collected from 233 onion farmers in 2009-2010. To address this we used Two-Stages Random Sampling Method. Results showed that farmers are risk averse and their aversion increases by increasing in risk of enterprises and decreases by increasing in farmer's income. Therefore, policies like agricultural insurance are advised to decrease the onion production risk.

Abstract Regarding to the reduction of poverty and inequality of income distribution is top priority, especially in developing countries; in this paper the impact of trade liberalization and economic sectors growth on poverty were evaluated. For this purpose according to Mathur (2003), effective of different variables on poverty and Gini coefficient using ordinary least square has been surveyed in 1959-2008. Results show that in the long term, trade liberalization can lead to better income distribution and poverty reduction. Agricultural sector is one of the biggest sectors and most of the poor people are in the agricultural sector, therefore agricultural growth and then income in the this sector is very important for success in poverty reduction policies. Also, estimates show positive effect of trade liberalization, per capita income and value added of agriculture sector to reduce poverty. So for poverty reduction, development of agriculture sector compared to other economic sectors and trade liberalization on long time can reduce poverty.