فصلنامه روستا و توسعه
سال نهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 34، تابستان 1385)

Drawing on three predictive methods including ARIMA, Single-, and Double-Exponential Smoothing, this study has predicted and estimated rates of the fishing, wholesale fish prices and levels of the expected revenues for fishermen in the Sistan region during the five-year period of drought, 2000-2004. Time series data were collected from Sistan and Baluchestan Fisheries Corporation and Sistan and Baluchestan Water Affairs Organization. Results of the study indicate that the fishermen have forgone a revenue of about 150 billion rials (US$ 16,300,000) during the period; and they have indeed made simply 0.25 percent of the expected revenues. Since predicting the rates of fishings and wholesale fish prices play a key role in a decision-making process, it was carried out for the years 2005 and 2006, using the above methods. Accordingly, the predicted values for the rates of fishings and fish prices include 2467.7 tonnes and 21330.3 rials (US$ 2.3) for 2005 as well as 2465.2 tonnes and 14169.09 rials (US$ 1.5) for 2006 respectively.

This paper has drawn on the experimental data produced by interviews with 526 inhabitants in 64 villages of the West Azarbaijan, Esfahan, Khouzestan, and Golestan provinces; and the study was conducted in a multi stage cluster sampling method. As research results indicate, the rural youth are different from the other rural age groups in their willings to consume materialistically¬ (using modern living facilities), migrate, and enjoy leisure pursuits by means of the mass media, and make use of television, video, and the press. However, it turned out to be no difference among the various age groups of the villages as far as life satisfaction, vision of urban and rural lives, leisure pursuits in traditional manners, and listening to radio broadcasts are concerned. Admittedly, given both their potentials in rural development and their relative differences from the other rural age groups, it is of a particular importance to focus on the rural youth in research, rural development plannings as well as the media programming.

Environmental unsustainability is a global issue assumed to be of importance to every nation. Success in the conservation of environment, therefore, requires environmental knowledge and communication with people so that learning and adopting of the environmental conservation are simultaneously realized. For this purpose, sustainability indicators are among the primary means of helping individuals, institutions, and communities to make more different and appropriate choices for the future of their environments. Such indicators are not readily responding questions by themselves, but they may direct us to better responses if reliable information is provided over valuable issues on life. The indicators are divided into three categories including distinctive, comparative, and directional. Directional indicators are focused on action rather than numerical symbols. These are illustrated in symbols and, for reasons of dynamism, assume personal, social, cultural, and geographical differences; thus, they are very functional in informing, educating and learning about the environmental sustainability. This paper aims at explaining the directional indicators of the environmental sustainability and thereby drawing their functions.

Disparity is raised as a key feature of third world countries. Decreasing disparity is thus considered as one of the development objectives in such countries. Disparity dimensions are a matter of discussion in various economic, social, political, and cultural spheres. It is of a particular importance to create job opportunities for reasons of its absolute contribution towards reducing poverty and inequality. As study results indicate, creating job opportunities was tended toward the urban regions during the 1966-96 period. Such an employment disparity was reduced over the post-revolution period. Maximum gap in the increased job opportunities occurred over 1976-1986 period, indicating not only no increase in the number of rural employees but also a decreased number of rural jobs. During the whole study period, the urban population share increased and the rural population share decreased. In all sections over the concerned period, the increase in urban population was higher than that of the rural population, so that both the whole population increase in the province occurred in the urban areas and the considerable decrease occurred in the rural population. According to theoretical bases and experimental observations, these developments were mainly caused by tendencies of creating job opportunities towards the urban areas. Concentration of investments in the urban regions and thereby generation of employments in cities caused population to make their major movements to the cities, producing in turn population density in the cities of the province. With respect to the employment contribution to reduce economic, social, and political disparities in the rural/urban regions of the province, a balanced expansion of the job opportunities between both regions is viewed as a necessary measure.

This research aims at studying contributions of rural local markets from buyers/seller's viewpoint as well as their impact on rural people's subsistence and economic condition. It makes use of a descriptive survey method and a statistical society including all clients (sellers and buyers) in the local markets of 30 villages in the Mazandaran province. As shown by research results, there are more than fifteen types of goods supplied in the rural local markets, the seller's average monthly income gained through selling them is estimated about 230 thousand tomans (US$ 250). Appropriate seasons and months to supply the goods respectively include autumn (October/ November), summer (September), winter (March), and spring (June). Only 21 percent of the rural people tend to sell their products either to businessmen/women of the local markets or to the buyers in a direct manner. As mentioned by 90 percent of the customers of the local markets, advantages of purchasing goods in such markets include availability of goods, lack of carrying costs, nearness to living/working places, diversification of goods and their relatively suitable prices compared to urban markets and rural stores.