فصلنامه روستا و توسعه
سال پانزدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 59، پاییز 1391)

Significant increase in trade, international exchange and integration of markets at a global scale is general feature of globalization process, which has been ongoing intentionally or not. The present study examines the way this phenomenon influences economic variables and provides a guide for efficient decision making by policy makers. The study compares the efficiency of vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with vector error correction (VEC) and artificial neural system (ANS) for forecasting, and then applies Iran’s economy time series data and a designed neural system to 1971-2007 period to forecast the Gini coefficient for rural areas for the years 2008 and 2009 in three scenarios. Consequently, by an out of sample forecasting the impact of globalization on income distribution in Iran’s rural community is assessed in a fourth scenario for the period 2008 to 2016. The results indicates the ANS model has a better performance in forecasting the future inequality of income in rural community, also rural income inequality tends to decline with the expansion of globalization.

The main objective of this study is to identify structural changes in Iran’s agriculture up to 2025 based on experts views. The study applies Delphi technique to reach to a consensus among the experts. The statistical population consists of all policy makers in agricultural sector. Through a purposive sampling a sample size of 20 is selected to respond to the main question of research. The experts predict 16 changes for the sector and they reach to a consensus about the type of change - decrease or increase. The changes can be classified in 6 themes: type of crop production, production equipments, market demand, quality of cultivation, size and number of farm plots, and human factor in production.

The main objective of this study is to measure the poverty intensity in rural areas of Iran. The study applies Amartya Sen poverty index, head count index, and income gap ratio index. The results indicate that poverty gap index was equal to 0.248 in 2001 and declined to 0.247 in 2008. During the same period the poverty line had an upward trend for both rural and urban households such that the poverty line has reached to 3317413 Iranian Rls. from a base of 819763 Rls..

The present study examines the climate conditions of the region and extracts drought years to study their relationship with rural economy. Climate indices such as SPI, PNPI and DR are used to calculate drought. The present study is an applied one with an analytical approach that examines the relationship between precipitation, wheat production yield, income and demographic movements. The results indicate that for one millimeter decrease in precipitation the wheat yield declines 3 Kilograms per hectare which leads to decline in farmer's income. Also for one centimeter decline in precipitation the number of migrants will increase by 4. All the relationships are statistically significant.

Human is the main cause of environmental destruction, therefore, human and environmental interactions should be more appropriate. The study of such an interaction necessitates an accurate knowledge of human mind and behavior. To this end, 74 agricultural and natural resource experts from Mashhad county are studied by "transcendental approach" and "five D system". The results indicate that the relationship between mind and behavior is relatively weak and they differ significantly. Since these experts are the guides to the realization of sustainability, it is necessary to train them such that they change their life, mind and behavior and coordinate these two; they examine environmental issues, related information and consequent problems; they initiate the change from themselves; and they change their mind and behavior and develop mutual relationship to overcome the barriers to sustainability.

The present exploratory study is carried out during April to December 2010 period. Sustainability indices are constructed through participatory observation and doing agricultural work with farmers during a one-month period. The results indicated that in Khanomabad village, household farming system is unsustainable economically and environmentally, and semi sustainable socially. The most important predictors of social, economic and environmental dimensions are profit, trust, application of bio and nitrate fertilizers, and frequency of surface tillage. The most important predictors of the whole farming system sustainability are again profit, the application of bio fertilizers and financial exchanges among friends. The study recommends the establishment of a vegetable market and cooperative concerning economic and social aspects, and the extension of bio fertilizers from an environmental perspective.

Rural service centers play an important role in the provision of required services to villages under their coverage. These are the place for generating mobility and tendency to live in rural areas. The study is descriptive and analytical, and statistical population consists of the staff of subdistrict's centers. The study examines 19 demographic indicators including literacy, employment and unemployment, residential, cultural-educational, religious, political and administrative places, and infrastructural services. The second type functional approach and z score are used. The results show that the Central District is ranked first among Marivan county Districts.

The Construction Soldiers Project has been initiated since 2000 pursuing objects such as expansion of extension network, utilization of existing resources related to the function of the Ministry of Jihad for Agriculture and the provision of appropriate environment for training of human labor force in Iran through the mobilization of conscripts. The present study evaluates the results of the project during the period 2009-2010. Farmer's satisfaction with the project and the performance of construction soldiers are assessed in an analytical-descriptive and correlational framework. The statistical population consists of all the farmers under the coverage of construction soldier's advisory services in Kohgilooyeh-va- Boyer Ahmad, Ardebil, South Khorasan, Kermanshah and Mazandaran provinces. The results indicate that the farmers are satisfied with the project and their presence in rural areas is effective for the improvement of agricultural products.