فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 105 (پاییز و زمستان 1386)

Following the Islamic Revolution in Iran, according guidelines of the Constitution, government and Protectionist Institutions such as Komiteye Emdade Imam Khomeini have executed many anti-poverty programs. But after more than 25 years, evaluations shows that despite the allocation of considerable financial and human resources, these attempts didn’t have expected results. This article uses capability approach for analyzing the effectiveness of the Development plans policies and the programs of Komiteye Emdad in alleviating poverty in Iran. This analysis shows that not utilizing of empowering mechanism for protecting the poor in anti-poverty programs and policies was the main weakness of these efforts. This analysis explains that these programs and policies have been designed and implemented based on welfarism approach and have tried to compensate poor groups by transfer payments and subsidies.

The relationship between the function of the public and private section and exploring this relationship has been a long discussion in macroeconomic. In this paper we attempted to consider the effect of fiscal policies on private section investment in Iran. The fiscal policies include a change in the government’s income and spending, In fact, the main purpose of this paper is to study the degree and the way in which the government’s income and spending effect the function of macroeconomic in the field of private section investment. The results of the presented estimate model in this article show that government income of Oil and Gas have positive effect and Tax have negative effect, and it’s spending has positive effect on the investment in the private section. And the budget deficit of government encourages investment in the private section. The method used for estimating the function of the private section investment in Iran is the ordinary least square technique. This research is focused on time period from 1350 till 1384. With due attention to the results obtained from estimate model suggest that an increase in the government spending in fundamental and public affairs and a decrease in the tax incomes of the government (taxes gathered from the new industries) causes an increase in the private section investment.

Referring to the importance and nature of technology and its relations with science, this paper reviews sociological theories of technology. To this end, two paradigms namely, Technological Determinism and Social, Economic and Political Determinism of Technology are critically analyzed. Later, three outstanding approaches to Social, Economic and Political Determinism of Technology, i.e. Constructivist, Techno-Social Systems and Actor-Network Theories, as well as their reasoning in technological sociology are explained in detail.

The aim of this article is to inform on the frameworks, motivations, performance challenges, planning alternatives and real experiences of applying “results-oriented budgeting and management”. This system improves the domain of budgeting and management through increasing the domain and types of information produced. Results-oriented budgeting and management system supplements product-oriented budgeting system and improves measurement efficiency methods, management and budgeting effectiveness. The major challenges on the way of implementing this system are as follows: measuring the amount of results achievement, results cost assessment, variety of tastes for evaluations, analyzing common results among several organizations, and data-processing problems. Motivations and reasons for implementing such a budgeting and management system are as follows: increasing governmental sectors’ efficiency and effectiveness, improving the previously-learned materials, devising better executive policies and programs, and increasing transparency and accountability. The paper cites the experiences of 9 OECD countries to exemplify the applications of such a budgeting and management system. The countries have realized that there is an ever-growing need to increase the governmental activities and outputs, strengthening accountability for activities and results, and increasing efficiency and effectiveness in implementing the programs. As far as these goals affect the public sector management and budgeting, it is expected that implementing results-oriented budgeting and management system would be perused to get enough developed in all OECD countries and extended to other countries in following years.

Global markets have opened their gates to the free flow of products, services, investments and other economic activities and the amount of impediments on the way of trade in global level have become less; moreover, the improvement of communication media have downsized the effect of time and space in commercial transactions. Vast changes in various fields have markedly transformed the nature of economic activities and the international market is potentially subject to any type of economic activity. Yet, any operation in this potential environment for international trade requires that exporters capabilities be improved so that they could realize the requirements of the new situations, get aware of their weaknesses and try to overcome them. Accordingly, a good number of standards are devised to make sure that exporters are capable enough. Likewise, extensive programs are designed and implemented to develop the exporters capacities. This paper tries to evaluate East Azarbaijan provincial exporters capabilities through the use of the techniques concerned as well as to suggest solutions for improving their capacities through analyzing their weaknesses and strengths. This paper is composed of the following parts: Introduction, a review of the domestic and foreign studies, theoretical review of the related literature, research methodology, leather production situation in East Azarbaijan, Evaluation of the provincial leather exporters capability level, and Conclusion. Result of the related field studies reveals that East Azarbaijan provincial leather exporters capabilities level is 7.2, which is lower that the average number. According to the methodology the average capability level number is 11.5.

On the basis of Iran’s National 20-Year Development Outlook, it is considered a must to develop infrastructural steel industry. Evidently, planning for meeting the domestic needs seriously requires focused technical and economic studies. In this way, identifying and projecting Iran’s raw steel demand pattern are regarded of infrastructural importance and priority for any production program. Therefore, in this study, two models for raw steel consumption are estimated according to “trends of variables continuation” scenario, based on 3rd plan as well as according to “goals accomplishment of 4th, 5th, and 6th plans” scenario so as to predict Iran’s raw steel consumption in 2021. These two models make use of “Intensity of Use” method with two differing approaches to predict Iran’s raw steel consumption. The first Model uses the “income” variable to predict and estimate Iran’s Raw steel consumption amount in the classical “consumption function” context and private and state investment as two indicators of “economic structure change” and “government’s performance impact”. The second model, estimates raw steel consumption from the sectors’ point of view; this model considers the performance of the major steel-consuming sector, i.e. petroleum, industry, mines and construction. According to the findings of these models, raw steel consumption in 2021 will be 55.7 and 45.8 million tons respectively providing that goals of 4th and 5th Development Plans are achieved. Meanwhile, according to these two models, the amounts are predicted to be 44.7 and 41 million tons if the variables growth trend would be according to 3rd Development Plan.