فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 116 (بهار 1391)

Real exchange rate disequilibrium may prove destructive to economy of countries. Thus, controlling exchange rates deviation from has always been one of the vital goals of governments. The first step in controlling this variable would be to know the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate. Linear regression models are employed in most researches where real exchange rate equilibrium value is estimated. Yet considering a non-linear adjustment process in the exchange rate, it would be misleading to use the linear models for estimating equilibrium values. In this way, the present article uses seasonal data 1994:2-2008:1 in a non-linear regression framework so as to estimate real exchange rate equilibrium relationship, while rejecting the linearity model hypothesis and affirming the presence of a non-symmetrical process in exchange rate threshold adjustment, the researchers employ Logistic Smooth Transfer Regression (LSTR) in order to estimate real exchange equilibrium model that is estimated a Newton-Raphson algorithm and conditional maximum likelihood function. In the end, the amount of exchange rate deviation from equilibrium level is mentioned for each period.

Ever-increasing dependence of human life on energy has made this factor play a critically crucial role either potentially or actively in the functions of various economic sectors of countries. Therefore, the people in charge of any country should try to make exact forecasting of energy consumption and make correct planning about its consumption in a way to optimally control supply-demand parameters. This study tries to make models and forecasts about energy consumption in Iran’s transportation sector through ‘Fuzzy Neural Network’, ‘Genetic Neural Network’ and ‘Neural Network’ models. Hence, annual data of Iran’s transportation sector energy consumption was taken as output variable of forecasting models while the annual data of population of the whole country, gross domestic product and the number of automobiles were used as the input variables of the forecasting model. Finally, the accuracy of models was assessed by using evaluation indicators. The assessment results indicated that ‘Fuzzy Neural Network’ model was more accurate than other ones considering energy forecasts in the country’s transportation sector. Meanwhile, according to the results of the inputs sensitivity analysis by neural network, Iran’s population input was identified as the input with most influence in energy consumption.

Scrutinizing motivational structure of entrepreneurs could sharpen understanding the formation and the implications of entrepreneurial activities in any society. Considering the wide variety of motivational structure among different countries and outstanding role of such a structure, one might wonder which factors influence it. This article employs data pertaining to 60 member countries of Global Entrepreneurship Monitor and panel data method in a try to study the macroeconomic factors that are effective on the ‘improvement-driven’ to ‘necessity-driven’ entrepreneurship ratio. The findings of the research indicate that the levels of development, economic growth, unemployment, women participation in labor, technical development and public education have significant effect on this ratio in the countries. Therefore, these macroeconomic factors should be taken into consideration in any research conducted with the aim of comparing entrepreneurial situation in various communities or places or in plans devised with the aim of entrepreneurial improvement in the national level.

Present fiscal policy progression will pave the way for the government's debts repayment if the government is in the fiscal stability condition. This paper tries to test Iranian government's fiscal stability on the basis of 1971-2008 data, using multicointegration method. In this method, it is possible to study the cointegration relationship of variables with different accumulation rank order. This study indicates that the government is not in a stable fiscal status in the public budget scale. But if seigniorage is added to the government's revenues, it would result in fiscal stability status. This indicates that Iran's fiscal policy could repay government's debts just through relying on inflation.

Trade Policies are one of the effective factors on the environment and performance of enterprises’ activities. The effectiveness level of such policies in the performance of enterprises, most particularly in their efficiency is influenced by the market competition. This paper tries to measure determining factors of productivity in Iran’s industries while focusing on the competitive degree within the period of protection policies (1995-2001) and trade liberalization period (2002-2007). The findings indicate that market power has directly led to the growth in productivity of industries. Although tariffs cuts have decreased the direct effect of market power on productivity growth (except for low-protected monopolistic industries), the market power has augmented productivity in Iran’s industries through exerting competitive pressure on monopolistic industries, motivating for innovation, introducing efficient enterprises and employing human capitals. Meanwhile, tariff cuts have encouraged the enterprises working in low-protected monopolistic industries to compete with foreign producers and grow their productivity. Yet, tariff cuts have decreased productivity growth in monopolistic industries that have access to medium level of protection. This indicates that the extent of tariff cuts has been more than the amount needed to encourage the medium-protected industries to compete with foreign producers and to improve productivity.

Social capital has recently turned into an outstanding subject in development literature and considering its socio-economic and political implications in our country, and Iran’s 20-year vision document has required its improvement. One of the crucial issues of social capital is its formation and developments whose understanding appears a must and prerequisite to improve it. A brief glance at Iran’s social capital developments reveals that despite phenomena such as revolution, war, extensive influence of religion, and increase of education levels (which are all regarded the factors of social capital increase according to the present theories) the amount of social capital has diminished in Iran. Relying on institutional and discourse theories, this article introduces a new theoretical framework with the aim of analyzing this problem. The findings of this research show that the main cause of changes in Iran’s social capital is the discourse changes and its decrease could be analyzed on this basis.