فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 129 (تابستان 1394)

The aim of this paper is analyzing the effect of government fiscal and budget decentralization on the size of the local states (provinces) and provinces economic development. For this, fiscal, budget and economic data were collected to 30 provinces for period of ten years 1381-1390. The results by using panel data, doing regression and LLc test show that fiscal decentralization and pool income has positively and meaningfully effect on the size of local states (provincial). In addition. Results show that fiscal decentralization provincial practitioner labor and provincial reconstructive budget has been positively and meaningfully effect on economic growth.

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of oil revenue shock on macro-economic variables, in the context of a DSGE model while considering features such as the requirements of infrastructure development and public investment inefficiencies in Iran. The research findings based on RBC model, show that oil revenue shock has increased the consumption, government spending (such as the current and capital expenditures) and have decreased the inflation in the short term, although because the oil shock transferred to demand side, this situation leads to decrease the inflation in medium term. Results revealed that when the oil revenue shock increases, the “National Development Fund” and consequently the share of credit granted to private sector will be raised. Besides, because of the structure of Iran’s economy including large unproductive activities and the crowding out effect of government activity in economy the increase in oil revenue has little effect on growth and development of production in non-oil producing sectors. Furthermore, the research findings also show that when the public investments inefficiency decrease, the investment in oil revenues has more positive effects on macro-economic variables such as public sector production.

Nonconformity of financial rules and means of injection of resources resulted from oil export into government budget are two crucial issues which has been transformed into a significant hurdle with respect to the stabilization of financial policy. During the booming years, relying on the substantial revenues earn through the oil export in dollar, current expenditures becomes more expanded and civil projects start, and due to lack of a proper management in foreign exchange resources, oil revenues are spent for the import of consuming, intermediate and capital goods which contribute to an unstable and non-continuous economic growth. Previous experience indicate that in order to overcome the problem, a wide variety of measure are taken including increasing the foreign exchange rate, cutting civil projects spending, increasing the price of goods and rate of public services, raising taxes which all contribute to the deterioration of budget deficit (as per Olivera-Tanzy effect) and establish stagnation. Majority of studies demonstrate the necessity for designing of fiscal rules in order to prevent the oversizing of government as well as hinder the fiscal instabilities in short term. Such rules can be quantitative indexes aimed at limiting political intervention or procedural rules working toward the improvement of budgetary’s institutional performance and management of public sector. Foreign Exchange Reserve Account, National Development Fund, and goal setting for deficit of operational level are major fiscal rules designed in Iran. In practice, however, they failed to restrict government in utilizing of recourses from oil export. Current study addresses the available fiscal rules and experience of other countries and then proposes three fiscal rules including setting ceiling for budget deficit without oil and its annual reduction, setting ceiling for spending Rials from oil recourses in budget and its annual adjustment and associating the expenditure increase with the growth of non-oil revenues.

Import tax is one of the government revenue sources that the part of this is not given to the government due to tax evasion. Several factors effect on the tax evasion in import that in this study has been identified by using a combination model of artificial neural network and simulated annealing algorithms that enable analyses the nonlinear systems. For this purpose, at the First the four explanatory variables indicative tax evasion in the Iranian economy inclusive tax burden on imports, the size of governments, tax payers’ real income and trade were considered in specified final model. The results from tax evasion estimation by using artificial neural network shows that during the years under review although the tax evasion in import faced with swings but this trend is descending in the period (1350-1390). Also the results from analysis of variance for estimated regression, show that the variables of tax burden on imports and the size of governments with the coefficients 0.236, 0.492 have the significant and positive effect on tax evasion and the variables of tax payers’ income and trade openness with the coefficients (-2.10), (-7.92) have the significant and negative effect on tax evasion. The predicted quantities of tax evasion based on modeling artificial neural network have lesser error respect to predicting based on estimated regression.

Monetary policies are the main instruments of macroeconomic and understanding their impacts is an important step in planning and national and regional development. In this study the effects of monetary shocks in coin price was studied by time series for 1981-2012. For this, GARCH technique was used to modeling and calculates the monetary shock. Also the relationship between monetary shocks, the world price of gold, oil revenues and exchange rate with coins price of Iran were analyzed using the ARDL model. Results show that in long-run exchange rate has negative effect and other variables have direct and meaningful effect on coin price of Iran

Today, a significant portion of economists believe that by using the patterns of institutional development, economic progress brought to the country. But on this path, exact understanding of the principles of institutional economics is very important Since, in this research we try to consider moral principles of institutional approach as well as principles of philosophy in ontology and Anthropology areas. Considering vast domain of institutional economics we will focus on those areas which represent the key differences between this model and the others. It seems that three concepts of evolutionism or social Darwinism, bounded rationality and moral motivations in behaviors have the biggest effect on principles of institutional models, respectively. It seems that three concepts of evolutionism or social Darwinism, bounded rationality and moral motivations in behaviors have the biggest effect on principles of institutional models, respectively.

The formation of the Industrial revolution in the 17th century in Europe is simultaneously with the governance of the safavid dynasty in Iran. In that time Iran is achieving growth and prosperity equal with other powerful communities. But this balanced of power did not last. Iran’s economic situation is deteriorating and bystart development of capitalism in Europe the imbalance between Iran and west is aggravating. In this study, the reasons of fluctuate of the economic performance at safavid era and the causes of no structural changes in the Iran’s economy under the levels of institutional analysis, is investigated. For this target the institutional approach byemphasize on North’s topics about open and limit access orderis used. Results say thatthe lack oflaw, absolute power of the autocratic monarchy and the weakness of civil society, don’t allow open access to political and economic markets at safavid era.Thusthe technological progress did not occur .Alsoinsecurity life of artisans and craftsmen and high transaction costs, prevent the growth of investment and production. While in Europeappropriate fields for the rule of law and open access to politicaland economic markets provided gradually.As a result, theinstitutions for supporting markets created andincentives for investment and industrial production increased.

Looking at the history of studies conducted in the framework of law and economics as long has always pointed to this approach. So that the whole studies carried out in this area, to be included multiple intellectual views. But the turning point of this study that provided the background for the development of this approach over the past, Published institutional economic ideas was in this field. The Commons is one of the founders of institutional economics is that for many years he attracted the attention of institutional ideas and influence of its own economists. The point of this paper is that what is Commons analytical approach to economic issues? Institutional glance what caused the difference in economic analysis? And what are the implications of his ideas in the field of law and economics? This paper is based on textual analysis for addressed this question. Commons with his unique vision of the concept of the institution in the form of collective action could change the economic analysis from the goods to exchange,brought a new approach, that can be as the approach mentioned exchange, to the scope of the knowledge of human. The emergence of economic Institutionalism and legal arguments exchange and costs, on the other hand, using economic methods to analyze the laws and regulations in recent decades, has made this field of study more than before. Due to the importance of the ideas of Commons in this area, the explanation and analysis of the article is based on his ideas. As a result, Commons approach is based on his idea about the prevalence of conflicts, trying lawmakers and courts to resolve these conflicts, the evolution of rights as a consequence of the ongoing processes of conflict resolution and the going concerns as a the context of exchange.