فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 131 (زمستان 1394)

During the last few decades, the study of the effect of non-economic variables in the economy has become a prominent subject matter for the researchers. One of the most important issue in these cases are the effects of elections (as a political phenomenon) on the economic variables, which in the economic literature is referred to as the political cycle. Thus, in this study, by using panel data for 29 selected countries (in two groups including the developed and developing countries) during the period 1994-2011, we attempt to evaluate the effects of political cycles (indicators include: the year of the election, the minority government, coalitions, government ideology) on the unemployment growth rate. To investigate this, generalized least square (GLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques have been used. Based on the results, candidates of each country irrespective of their ideology (left wing or right wing) try to gain a greater number of people's vote by increasing
job opportunities, reducing unemployment and promoting the business environment. Furthermore, the variables of the minority government and coalitions have significant influence (respectively positive and negative effect) on the growth of unemployment rate in developing countrie (unlike the cases of the developed countries).

Low and stable inflation rates are essential to promote economic growth and welfare of the people. Therefore, many countries pursue their policies within the framework of inflation targeting to achieve low and stable inflation rates. Monetary policy implementation based on inflation targeting is a framework that has been adopted by many countries since 1990. To implement such framework, a series of structural and policy-making reforms should occur in many sectors of the economy. This paper concentrates on policy-making reforms and, by applying SVARX model, attempts to identify and introduce policy-making reforms appropriate to inflation targeting framework. The results of the paper show that SVARX model with inflation, liquidity growth, budget deficit growth and economic growth as endogenous variables, and exchange rate growth and two dummy variables, for controlling the effects of eliminating subsidies and inflation expectation break, can present policy-making reforms appropriate to inflation targeting framework.

Iran’s vision statement 1404, maintains that the nation needs to uphold its productivity and innovative spirit in order to enhance the economy’s competitiveness. Having considered the implications of the vision statement 1404 for the country’s sustainable development, in this paper, an attempt is made to measure Iran’s energy efficiency compared to the neighboring countries and some other nations, in the time period 2007-i2012. Using the well-known Data-Envelope Analysis methodology (DEA), we investigate whether the country has succeeded in closing the gap pertaining to the energy efficiency goals determined at the Vision Statement 1404. The study shows, however, in the time period under consideration, energy efficiency in Iran and some neighboring countries, have in fact deteriorated, due to some policy deficiency, particularly universal energy subsidies. The result clearly implies the need for a set of consistent and pro-efficiency energy policies in Iran, endured in the medium and long-run, in order to establish a reasonable path to energy efficiency level envisaged in vision statement 1404.

This paper examines whether in the analysis of the impact of monetary policy, the exchange rate can play a role along with the interest rate as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy effects on economic variables or not? For this purpose, the general dynamic stochastic equilibrium models were used in the form of a New Keynesian small open macro-economy; accordingly, in this study, the Bayesian approach has been implemented to obtain the estimates of parameters and conclusion in this model. To this end, Dynare was used, which is a general and suitable tool for Bayesian estimation in the context of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. This model was designed for the economy of Iran, considering oil-based economies and the currency substitution existence. Then, its calibration and simulation were conducted with Iran's economic data for the period 1995-2011. The results from model validation, univariate and multivariate recognition of Markov Monte Carlo chain and analysis of the model impulse responses show that in Iran's economy, the exchange rate plays a role along with the interest rate as a monetary transmission mechanism.

In this article we present a dynamic programming model for oil production in Iran. To this end, we represent our model in the form of a Bellman equation in which the function for discounted profit as the objective function is formulated as a Bellman equation, and hence is viewed as a dynamic programming problem.Specifically, in order to show the liquids flow in oil tanks, we use differential equations; we also examine the liquids flow in tanks and the effects of water and gas injection in oil tanks on the average production of oil wells, and the impact of increase in production from oil tanks on future production by analyzing oil tanks simulations, and then we derive a dynamic production function model as a restriction for our problem. Therefore, we interconnect the petroleum engineering models with the economic optimizing models. The results indicate that the optimal level of oil production in Iran is much higher than the actual level of production; and it implies that oil production is not merely influenced by economic issues, but is also affected by various factors, such as political issues. Moreover, we will focus on analyzing the effects of various discounting factors and expectations in the period of technological substitutions in oil market.

Endogenous development, as a capability of a society in mobilizing domestic resources, along with the transition of traditional material economy to knowledge-based economy, have radically changed growth theories. The endogenous development, which originally was a guidance tactic for national decision makers and planners, has been attracting attentions in economic development at local level from the late 1990s. The main purpose of the article is to explain the endogenous development and to identify a new approach to endogenous development in the field of planning; these require us to identify the necessities to apply institutional approach. Henceforth, by analyzing the changes occurred in economic thoughts and the emergence of intuitionalism in development, and also by emphasizing the role pf endogenous development in these processes, the theoretical principles of traditional vs modern view to local development will be revealed. The findings indicate that employing the institutional approach in planning for endogenous development, advances the interactions between government and people, and improves bottom-up relations, and people’s control on government decisions; moreover, it helps to form an integral approach with regards to local development, which is the very aim of any endogenous development.

Although the scheme and foundation of institutionalism is based on the concept of institution, but there is no common understanding and definition of institution; in fact, with their fundamentally distinct perceptions and approaches, different theoreticians have defined institution in different ways. Therefore, through a descriptive-analytical method, the present study seeks to conceptually classify the definitions generally proposed after the revival of institutional economics by reviewing them. Most of the definitions proposed in recent decades may be classified under behavioral, equilibrium, structural, normative, and rule-oriented concepts. An assessment of the above said interpretations shows that structural and normative approaches regarding institution are defective expressions of the rule-oriented one, while behavioral and equilibrium definitions face problems such as lack of comprehensiveness, logical fallacy, mixing nature and capacity, weakness in expressing institutional changes and conflict with the assumptions of new institutionalism. Therefore, defining the institution as a rule, despite all criticisms pertaining to it, is preferred over other approaches.