فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 86 (امرداد و شهریور 1383)

This paper tries to survey Irans regional labor market disequilibrium within 1996-2000. According to the results there has been an increase in the amount of disequilibrium of Irans national as well as regional labor markets. Incomplete labor market information on vacant job opportunities in different regions of the country along with high costs of migration have been the major causes of unemployment rates inequality among Irans provinces. In 13 out of 14 provinces with unemployment rates more than national average in 2000, either the active population growth rate has been more than that of the national average or the employment growth rate has been less than that of the national everage. Hence, adopting the policies that lead to the limitation of the active population growth as well as to the rise of employment growth in such regions is regarded highly important. The increase of unemployment rate has caused major concerns in some provinces in a way that if due measure are not taken to tackle their problems, the emergence of unemployment crisis and its detrimental after-effects would be inevitable. The lack of a regional development plan and the labor market mismanagement are considered some of the major causes of in the regional labor market disequilibrium increase. It is expected that Irans fourth development plan would take the issues mentioned into consideration. The preparation of a regional development plan and the establishment of an efficient body for managing the labor market are some of the effective measures with the aim of decreasing regional disequilibrium.

Decent work is a new concept that has recently entered in international labor market economic literature and according to a good number of authorities it is one of the major aspects of sustainable developments that can lead to poverty reduction. On the other hand, International Labor Office (ILO) has Considered Decent Work as the basis of its major framework of activities. ILO intends to encourage the countries to collect the information needed for making Decent Work Indicators instead of traditional focus on gathering the labor force information about employment, unemployment and working hours. This paper defines the decent work and considers it as a comprehensive concept for evaluating Irans employment situation. Then it expresses ILO recommended statistical indicators for evaluating decent work. In the end, it proposes values for some of the decent work indicators that could be calculated in Iran. It should be noted that the definitions and concepts of the items that were referred to while defining the indicators such as employment, unemployment, underemployment and the like follow the latest ILO standard definitions and concepts (Harandi, 2003).

This paper tries to survey and estimate Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) and potential output. It uses the unobserved components model to propose a new method. The model consists of Ukan Law equations and Philips Curve. It uses unobservable key economic variable in the form of unobserved random trends in an equation system of three variables namely unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation rate. The model parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood method and Kalman Filter. Unobserved components are estimated by means of soothing algorithm. The findings of estimation show that the production gap has negative relationship with the deviation of unemployment from Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). The effect of business cycles on unemployment and inflation rates has been negative. This means that if real unemployment rate reaches the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU), the economy will be at the maximum level of production free from inflation pressure. According to the results of the paper, this rate has been estimated 7 percent in Iran during 1989-2002