فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 88 (آذر و دی 1383)

The results of performance evaluation in the creation of employment during the recent years indicates that employment goals in the third development plan were not achieved while goals in the area of production and investment growth rates were fulfilled accordingly. The analysis of labor demand models in the third development plan is conducted in order to identify their weaknesses in predicting employment level as well as to propose appropriate models with the aim of predicting employment level the fourth development plan. The models of labor demand functions suffered from considerable problems in regard with statistical data, modeling and estimating methods. This research paper tries to locate and analyze them. After solving the problems of the third development plan model, the paper proposes a suitable model for estimating sectoral labor demand functions. The model is dynamic one. Value added, real wage and employment variables have been included in the model. In the end, the paper estimates the amount of employment policies achievements in the first four years of the third development plan by means of the mentioned model. According to the results, about 70 percent of the goals in the development plan's employment policies were achieved.

Some view globalization as a process that is beneficial, inevitable and irreversible. Others regard it with hostility, even fear, believing that it increases inequality within and between nations. Some believe that globalization offers extensive opportunities for truly worldwide development provided that its even progress requirements are met. They also believe that global economic integration will lead to accelerated growth and reduced poverty. How can the developing countries, especially the poorest ones, be helped to catch up? Does globalization exacerbate inequality or can it help to reduce poverty? And are countries that integrate with the global economy inevitably vulnerable to instability? These are some of the questions covered in this paper

Human resources employment and unemployment issues are regarded as some of the most crucial problems in the world. They have even a more important role in the development affairs of the developing countries because of the imbalances within their socioeconomic, cultural and political structures. Unemployment of the human resources has detrimental effects on socioeconomic, cultural, political and security issues. This paper tries to survey employment status of Technical and Vocational Training Organization's graduates in Tehran. For this purpose, the paper proposes a hypothesis and reviews global views and researches and the indicators that have influence in employment. Then it introduces the trainings offered in the above-mentioned organization. Next, employment situation in Iran is surveyed. Afterwards, the indicators that are effective on employment of the technical and vocational graduates in Tehran are surveyed. Meanwhile, the intensity and orientation of the indicators effectiveness are analyzed in male – female categories by means of Logit econometric model. The indicators consist of age, marital status, gender, final exam, first or second skill level and type of vocational training. Statistical community of the research includes all first and second level graduates of official technical and vocational training centers in Tehran during 1998-2000. This community is composed of 47810 people (36860 males and 10950 females). This number belongs to the independent graduates of official training centers. The graduates that had been referred to the official training centers by high schools or other executive agencies (such unemployment insurance institutes, trade unions, industries, prisons etc.) are not included in the above-mentioned number. The number does not include the graduates of unofficial vocational training centers either. Random stratified sampling method was used in the research. Sectional data during a three-year period were used. The data were gathered and organized in a field study. Questioning and interviewing techniques were also utilized for the purpose. Due to insufficient information about the graduates, absence of a database and difficulties in accessing the graduates, only 480 samples could be observed. Out of these, 38 people had been employed before taking vocational training courses and followed their previous jobs after graduation. Therefore the latter group was omitted from the statistical sample. As a result, the group was reduced to 442 (299 males and 143 females). The results of the research show that education level, age, marital status and final exam grade indicators have positive effect on men’s employment in Tehran. Meanwhile, final exam grade and relatedness of vocational training type to the service sector have positive effect on women’s employment. Yet, whole sample statistical estimation showed that gender indicator had no influence in employment. Therefore, there is no significant difference between unemployment rates of men and women.