فصلنامه مجلس و راهبرد
پیاپی 93 (بهار 1397)

In this article the process of social capital accumulation and its determinants has been formulated. Based on the formulation, the process of social capital accumulation in Iran has been analyzed using co-integration approach. Social capital formation function was estimated using Johanson method and vector error correction model with data for period 1974-2012. According to the findings of this article, social capital is positively affected by physical capital, income level and human capital in both long term and short term. But for the same period, determinants like unemployment, rate of urbanization and industrialization have negative effect on social capital. Income inequality and inflation only in long term have positive and significant effect on social capital.

From the beginning of eighteenth century punitive moral in the West has experienced two different periods: first torture and then economics of chastisement. In each of these periods punishment has special nature and function. In the first stage punishment was similar to the terrible tragedy of violence and mutilation. In contrast in the second stage punitive reactions completely changed and violence was replaced by reform and rehabilitation of criminals.
About transition from the tragedy of torture to the comedy of reform a legal and criminological analysis has always been present. Based on these analysis transition from violence to reform is considered as Humanization of criminal law. But reforming criminal policy not only failed to reform criminals, but also failed to protect human dignity of offenders. Then we can claim that continuing of reform policy was not because of its reforming character. In contrast there is some hidden functions and reasons that cause continuing of reform policy.

Nowadays, in many developing countries tax incentives are used in order to affect the regional economy; however most investors declare that these incentives comparing to the other investment barriers are not somewhat important. Anyway, determining conditions and a coherent framework for using tax concessions like tax exemptions and examining their effects on investment, employment and production, are serious challenges for developing and even developed countries’ economic policy makers. Iran’s tax system is one of the few tax systems, which includes many forms of tax incentives for a wide range of audiences. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of tax exemptions, article 132 on employment of Iran’s less developed counties for the period from 1996 to 2008 ( 1375 -1387 corresponding to Iranian calendar).
In the present paper, the method used is Synthetic Control Method (SCM). In this method, first, the proper control units are selected systematically via an optimization process. Then, the treatment effects are estimated by extracting a weighted combination from results of control units, and by considering the treated groups’ experimental outcomes in the absence of the Program execution. Results indicate that tax exemptions Article 132 has no impact on employment of Iran’s less developed counties.

Public uprisings and new developments in the Arab world in 2011 which started by the uprising of Tunisian People and then developed into other countries of the Arab world such as Egypt, are considered as important transformations in the surrounding environment of the Middle East, which influence national security of different countries in the region such as Islamic Republic of Iran. Islamic Awakening developments have had deep influences on ranges of global and regional balance of power and have accelerated a set of upheavals in the international system. Islamic Awakening developments in Egypt, due to its specific features, have always been one of the important components affecting Iran’s national security because the Middle East, in addition to encountering regional crises and serious transformations which each regional player adopts mainly conflicting approaches for achieving their own aims and interests, observes the presence of trans-regional powers causing the increase in complicatedness of exchanges in the Middle East. The aim of the present study is to conduct the scenario planning of the future of political Islam in Egypt with the focus on trends and advances of Islamist movements in that country.

The exogenous economic shocks cause countries with a higher degree of vulnerability to be more influenced by them and be less able to reduce the negative effects of such shocks because in most cases, they are beyond control of countries. In contrast, countries with a high level of resilience can repair and reconstruct their economy after facing such economic shocks. In this regard and by considering economic exogenous shocks, especially oil price shocks on economy of oil-dependent countries that are mostly beyond their control, identifying the level of economic resilience and vulnerability in these countries has a considerable importance.
In the present research, there were calculated and extracted resilience and vulnerability indices for the selected oil countries from 2005 to 2012 using the indicators introduced by Brigoglio et al. The results showed that in 2012 economy of Iran, compared to some countries in the Persian Gulf region, had a better performance in terms of economic vulnerability index (a lower level of vulnerability); but in terms of resilience, it is at lower level in comparison with majority of the selected oil-dependent countries: in terms of economic resilience, Iran is in 16th place among 18 selected countries. Based on this indicator, Canada and Venezuela have the most and the least resilience respectively. In vulnerability index, Iran is in 12th place among 18 selected countries. Such a situation in areas of vulnerability and resilience indicates high vulnerability potential of the country against external shocks. By comparing the performance of different countries in areas of resilience and vulnerability we can say that oil income cannot be blamed as the sole reason of low resilience and high vulnerability. It is actually the style and method of management of different sectors of countries, especially management of oil incomes, that determines the level of their resilience and vulnerability. This issue requires special attention of economic and non-economic officials and politicians to resilience and vulnerability of the country.

Environmental Geopolitics is a discourse of critical geopolitics that studies the Ecological changes and the Geography of Environmental threats in the form of the industrial world’s security policies in the destruction of the environment and the effects of the global system on the Environmen, In the form of political discourses.
In the critical studies about ecology, governments and organizations have the biggest role in the misuse of renewable and nonrenewable sources. The indicative for this claim is that the Caspian Sea as a result of several factors at the moment has become one of the most polluted aquatic ecosystems in the world.
This article is descriptive-analytic and based on reliable sources in order to find answers to the questions that what are the main sources and the most effective geopolitical factors of the Caspian Sea’s pollution.
The results show the Caspian’s pollution arises from multiple sources on land and sea, and each of the five littoral states contribute to it. For geopolitical reasons , specifically, lack of a stable legal regime (main factor), closeness of the lake (its physical form), having materialistic and commodity-like attitudes towards its resources by coastal countries and underdevelopment and dependence of certain coastal countries to Western technologies are the most important geopolitical factors affecting the Caspian pollution.

Security is one of the most important public goods in each economy that its existence is a necessary condition for economic growth and development process. Theft is one of the crimes leading to decreased sense of security in society. In order to reduce the amount of theft, it is necessary to identify roots of this crime. The economic factors are one of the most roots of theft. The goal of this paper is to investigate the economic roots of theft in Iran during the 1984-2014 period.
For this purpose, using regression analysis, we studied about the impacts of economic factors on the per capita theft.
The estimation results of the research model indicate that the variables of per capita income and income inequality have a nonlinear and threshold impact on the per capita theft. That is to say that these variables to a certain degree of income and income distribution inequality are because of low level of income and high inequality in income, have significant positive impacts on the per capita theft, but after crossing the threshold levels of per capita and Income distribution inequality and achieveing better per capita income and income distribution, these variables have significant negative impacts on the per capita theft. Also, inflation and unemployment rates have significant positive impact on the per capita theft in the society.

The legal realism school believes that, without regard to the social conditions, there can be no satisfactory understanding of the science of law and the insights and other findings of the social sciences must be incorporated into science of law. It is desirable for the legislator and the judge to be aware of the social and economic conditions associated with their decisions, as well as the socio-economic effects of it and to be equipped with other social sciences. One of the influential theories within this school is the "Rosco Pound" social engineering theory. He considers the jurist as "social engineer" and law as "society engineering". "Pound" believes that it should seek to create a system of values that can be used to measure conflicting material, and value and balance between them. Balancing the various materials after going to extremes in various historical periods, today is the subject of modern criminal law. The Iranian legislator has pursued three main points in connection with the leniency institutions such as the Institution of Sentencing Deferment in the Islamic Penal Code 1392 (2013); Providing Social Defense, Correction, and reconciliation of the criminal and protection the victim. In the present paper, this institution is analyzed in the context of theory of [legal] Interests with a criminological approach and is examined the rate of success of the legislator in balancing between various materials.

This article has surveyed effects of financial rules on oil fund's performance and seeks to make a meaningful contribution to the literature on the use of oil funds in oil dependent countries, by proposing that what differences in financial systems, caused differences in performance in Iran's and Norway's oil funds? oil dependent countries, generally, face two basic problems: Revenue stream is volatile and uncertain, and supplies of these resources are finite.
Resource-dependent countries have several policy options available to deal with revenues from commodities. One mechanism that has been used, is the creation of an oil fund. These funds cannot be a substitute for financial and macro-economic management of the country, but can be the correct basis. Importantly, fund renewable sources alone cannot motivate savings oil revenue or to prevent excesses in consumption and waste them. If these funds are not well integrated in the budget can complicate financial management, lead the inefficient allocation of financial resources and help lack of transparency. Thus creating a fund should not consider simple solution to a complex problem.
Enjoying a treasury for all the government sources, transfer of the real budget surplus to oil fund, the pivotal role of central banks in managing foreign currency assets and limiting non-oil deficits as a complementary mechanism to the oil fund are four necessary specialties for an integrated budget.
Iran's foreign currency reserves account as a stabilization fund, was created in 2000 and the National Development Fund as an inter-generational fund in 2010. Norway oil fund was established in 1990. Disintegration of the financial system in Iran and Lack of unique management of public resources, has caused the amount of resources and state spendings not to be clear, impose some costs to the country's oil fund that are not documented in budget and finally, Iran's oil fund not be successful. Review of Norway Norway's financial systems, show that its oil funds are integrated in the financial system and the unified budget of the country.

The first wave of transition to democracy began in Bahrain in 1995 and in 1999 led to a series of reforms from above. But slowness and the lack of serious progress in the implementation of reforms on the one hand and the changes that began in Tunisia on the other hand caused the formation of a second wave of protests against the government in 2011.
Al-Wefaq was the core of the protests on behalf of Shiites in this country who demand democratic reforms and implementing the 1999 National Charter. Political instability caused by the second wave of protests, not only did not strengthen the process of transition to democracy, but also political obstacles on both internal and external levels caused frustration and thus stop the process of political modernization. This article is a descriptive-analytic review of Bahrain's political obstacles in the process of transition to democracy. The main question is what factors caused failure of the second wave of transition in Bahrain? Both the ruling elite's coherence and incoherence of the opposition at local, regional and international levels, the role of Saudi Arabia and America, are among the factors that contributed to the failure of the transition to democracy in Bahrain. It should be noted that the impact of each of these factors, especially at the local level, are not the same.

In this article effects of different institutional levels on absorbing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in countries of south west Asia during 2007-2014 period is analyzed. To do this, Williamson theoretical framework has been used. He believes in analyzing economic performances, four levels of analysis exist that the second and third levels are related to institutional factors.
In this study with evaluation of the characteristics of institutional levels, good governance index is used for measuring the second institutional level and the ease of doing business index is applied for the third institutional level. Then by introducing and estimating the quantitative model in the form of panel data with GMM method, we conclude that the promotion in business environment & also promotion in the four components of good governance index "regulatory quality", "rule of law", "control of corruption" and "government effectiveness" which shows the role of the governments in enhancing security of property rights and creating suitable economic environment are effective in attracting FDI. The results show that institutional reform in the micro or macro level alone couldn’t be effective in FDI attraction so it is necessary to consider not only micro institutional level reform but also macro institutional level‘s components reform which are effective on micro institutional level. Besids, the results show that GDP and exchange rate has positive and significant effects on FDI attracting while inflation rate effect is negative and significant on FDI attracting which is according to the theoretical expectations.

The differential penal policy in order to halt some common principles and standards of criminal law or the ebbs and flows of a criminal policy is particularly distinctive. In this paper an attempt is made to the necessity of developing a criminal policy differentiate cyber crimes in the Cabinet Composition cybercrime, based on differences in outstanding crimes traditional crimes such as differences in the nature, scope and context of the offense be explained and to follow this species of differential penal policy with a descriptive approach and recommended the territory of this category of crime, especially within the framework of the Iranian penal system needs to be identified. Effectiveness and efficiency to combat cybercrime laws are passed, requires a different view on issues such as the definition of the crime, the elements of crime, criminal responsibility and so on. Although computer crimes law passed in 1388 significantly taken a step forward but need further development and improvement.

The participatory production system using its different effects on economic factors, has been one of the favoured wage earning systems, and has been practically used in many cases. But the matter that must be addressed here, is that what is the realtionship between the wage earning participatory production system and the Islamic rules and principles.
After studying Islamic principles and some fiqhi related issues about wage, we will determine the form of participatory production contract in Islam and then will provide evidences about adoptation of participatory production with the Islamic wage instructions.

Foreign trade sector works as main lever of economic growth and development, Therefore it has been drawing much attention in developing countries.The impact of economic sanctions on Iran’s foreign trade Structure is important especially in the composition of imports because it is an essential ingredient of economic growth and development. The main purpose of this study is to assess the impact of economic sanctions on imports composition of Iran (1981-2013). For this purpose, sanctions have been divided in to limited, moderate and extensive sanctions based on the scales provided by Hufbauer that two dummy variables presented in the model, Then, the impact of these dummy variables along with other variables in the import demand function of capital, Intermediate and consumer goods have been estimated by FMOLS. The results showed that both of extensive and limited economic sanctions have reduced import of intermediate goods. On the other hand, capital and consumer goods import have increased during the period of extensive economic sanctions. However, limited economic sanctions have no significant effect on consumer imports.