فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 83 (پاییز 1396)

Problems of Urbanization expansion and unbalanced growth of cities have attracted the great attention of city planners and decision makers. This paper determines the effective factors on the growth of cities and investigates the role of poverty in the process of urbanization. In this regards, we consider four groups of factors that include economic factors, social and cultural factors, geographical factors and infrastructural factors. In this study, we use data from 336 cities for the period of 2007-2016. The population growth model is estimated with spatial error model. Because of the heteroscedasticity in our spatial model, we have used Kelejian-Pruch (2010) estimator.The results show that there are spatial effects in the model for population growth in the cities of Iran. Poverty, unemployment rate, and specialization index from economic factors and fertility rate, average age and the level of the education from social and cultural variable factors are among the most important factors affecting the population growth of the cities.

This research aims to assess the effect of unconditional cash subsidy transfer (which is instead of energy subsidies) on the labor supply of Head of household in Iran. I use data from the household's Income and expenditures survey of Statistical center of Iran for 2010-1012. I conduct the policy evaluation by a Difference-in-Difference strategy. In this regard, according to the household situations in receiving or not receiving the cash transfer, I divide the households into treatment and control groups. With using Dif in Dif estimators (ordinary least square, instrumental variable and Heckman's sample selection) I examine the effects of the policy on allocated hours on first and second jobs. The findings show that there is not the remarkable significant effect from cash transfer to the time allocation decision among Iranian household heads.

This paper aims to study the positive and meaningful effect of jihadi management on realizing of the resilient economy. According to the necessity of these days (Resilient Economy, do and act), in this paper, we provide a descriptive and survey research about the relationship between jihadi management and resilient economy and also management problems of the country (jihadi management) in social security organization in Isfahan. In this order, the database built-up from 70 people sample (managers and Elites) which selected by simple random sampling method. After data gathering, to analyze data and extract structural equation, we use the smart-PLS software. The results show that the impressionability coefficient between jihadi management and resilient economy is 96 percents that confirm jihadi management (as an independent variable) describes 96 percent of resilient economy changes (as a dependent variable).

After the privatization of state-owned companies, new employers tend to adjust their labor force in order to reduce ongoing costs and increase the company's profit. In order to persuade the employees to accept voluntary retirement and leave the firm, employers may offer a reward to the workers who are eligible for voluntary retirement but are not eligible for mandatory retirement. The purpose of this paper is the calculation of minimum bonus of encouragement retirement and analyzing the amount of mentioned minimum bonuses in Iran and using this for a case study in Telecommunication Company of Iran. In this regard, we calculate the minimum bonus for voluntary retirement in two game theory models that called "encouragement retirement with mandatory retirement age" and "encouragement retirement with maximum work experience." The calculations show that eight variables of mandatory retirement age, recruitment age, life expectancy, work experience, minimum work experience under a maximum rate of pension, wage, pension and expected rate of interest rate affect the amount of the bonus. In addition, we choose the model of “encouragement retirement with the mandatory retirement age” to apply a practical model in Iran. This practical model includes the effect of gender, tax exemption, and relief. The results show that in general one cant comment about comparing the mentioned minimum bonus for persuading to retirement only based on the gender. The existence of tax exemption and relief increases the mentioned minimum bonus Then encouragement retirement instruction of Telecommunication Company of Iran is analyzed in the shadow of the applied model for Iran. Analyzing the instruction indicates the selected model for persuading to retirement is improper. Additionally, these instructions neglect the effect of the influential factors such as mandatory retirement age, recruitment age and life expectancy non-deductible items of insurance premium and difference between hard and hazardous jobs with ordinary jobs.

This research is to design a New Keynesian DSGE model in an open economy which could be capable of Calculating optimal monetary policy rule in the face of different shocks (oil revenue and technological shocks), according to the dynamics of the current account and exchange rate fluctuations. In this study, after designing the model, Current account is derived and the model coefficients are calculated through the Bayesian approach. Then the three principals are introduced to the model and dynamism of the variables is investigated in the form of impulse response functions. The optimal policy rule is the policy, which minimizes the welfare loss function in the face of every shock. The results show that the optimal policy rule in the face of oil revenue shock and technological shock will be inflation and exchange rate rule and inflation targeting rule respectively. Finally, the immediate response (In the initial moments after entering shock) of the current account and the trade balance increased in the face of oil shock with the use of the rule of inflation and exchange rate comparing to the other rules.

The aim of this study is to estimate the resilience and economic vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability is a structural feature that increases the weaknesses of a system during adverse shocks. Economic resilience is defined as the ability of economic policy of a country to withstand in the face of shocks and recover from the effects of themIn this article an attempt has done for evaluation of main macro-economic objectives, economic situation and also to determine Iran's status between the seven greatest rival countries in the region in the six indices by Constructing Composite Indicators.
The result of the composite economic indicator reveals that Iran's status was fifth between the selected countries in 2000 & 2005 yaers, but this status has depreciative trend to sixth rank at 2010 year. Finally Iran's status has an improvement to fourth rank at 2015 year.

In this paper, we estimate the size of economic rent in Iran's automotive industry over the period 1386Q1-1394Q4. For studying the economic rent empirically, measure the economic rent directly is the most important problem. Then Researchers use different proxies for this variable. In order order to estimate the economic rent in the automotive industry, we use two groups of variables, including the cause's variables that include: Loans, Tax, Size of government, Oil revenues, GDP, Receivable accounts from group companies and affiliates, Cash and balances with banks, pre paids, received long-term trade accounts and notes, Inventories, Exchange rate, Inflation and reflect variables include: Sale, accumulated Profit and loss, Cost of goods sold. For this purpose, with using different variables, various combinations of variables are examined. In the optimum model which is selected base on fitting model criteria, all variables are statistically significant. Moreover, results of this paper show that changes in economic rent in the Automotive Industry during the years 1394-1386 encountered by leaps and bounds.

Security and crime and their influencing factors are one of the most interesting topics for policymakers and macroeconomic planners. The existence of insecurity in different areas causes the adverse effects such as reducing of new investments and consequently, lack of motion in the country’s development path. Given the importance of this issue, this study attempts to examine the impact of economic growth on crime rates (here, theft has been considered as a proxy for crime) in Iran's provinces over the period of 1379 to1388. Economic growth has been evaluated as real per-capita GDP in regions (provinces). However, the nine ordinary robberies have been introduced as a manifestation of the crime. It is also integrated with TOPSIS method. Using a panel data regression, we analyze the impact of economic growth on crime (with mentioned interpretations) in the different regions of the country. The results show a significantly negative impact of economic growth on the crime. Based on these results and in terms of policy, it is necessary to consider the issue of economic growth in all regions of the country (particularly balanced economic growth) in order to reduce the amount of crime (theft) for the future security.

Foreign trade growth and development of commercial relations, through importing the cheaper intermediate inputs and learning from the transfer and diffusion of knowledge lead to greater competition among the domestic industries. Therefore, by the expansion of competition, domestic enterprises use efficiently the existing resources and improve their productivity.
Despite various plannings for the industrial sectors in the Economic, Social and Cultural Development Programs which are targeted toward increasing the country’s value-added and employment level, the policymakers mainly focused on the development of export industries and encouraging the exporters while the most of Iranian industries strongly dependent on imported raw materials, intermediate and capital goods.
This paper studies the impact of the imported competition from Iran's most important trading partners on labor productivity by using the dynamic panel data estimator. In this regard, we use data from 131, 4-digit manufacturing for Iranian industries during 1992-2012. The results show that impact of imported competition on labor productivity is greater in the trade with four developed trade partners rather than four developing trade partners. In contrast, trade liberalization and the size of the industry, as a measure for the size of the domestic market, had a negative impact on the labor productivity.

Enough information in market and timely and fast reflection of information in prices, closely related to market performance. Therefore, efficient markets must be sensitive to new information, so that if new information became public, stock price changes according to direction of this information. Since investors information not symmetric in the stock markets, study information asymmetry in firms can be provide better analysis of market conditions. Therefore this study tries to measuring information asymmetry by using a measure of probability of informed trading (PIN), in selected firms in the Tehran Stock Exchange and in the period of 1389 to 1394. In this regard, first presented informational environment of these firms with annual information asymmetry, and then has been investigated the impact of information asymmetry on stock return variation with daily data. Results show Saipa, Bahman Group and Tosee Melli Investment have better informational environment and Khorasan Steel, IRI Marine Co. and Isfahan Oil Ref. Co. have highest level of information asymmetry. Also results show information asymmetry in the same period, leading to resonance daily return variation in the selected firms, but information asymmetry in the previous period, leading to formation cautiously expectations in stock trading and had a reverse effect in daily return variation.