فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 88 (زمستان 1397)

In this paper, we analyze the modified money market pressure index and the factors influencing the probability of a banking crisis with using Logit panel model and dataset include the annual data of banking system from 158 countries (including Iran) during the period 1998 (after the financial crisis of Asian countries) by 2015. In this regard, the Modified Money Market Pressure Index shows most of the selected countries were involved in the banking crisis in 2007. The results of the estimation of Logit model indicate that the cost-to-income ratio of the banking system, the internal credit to the private sector to GDP, and inflation increase the probability of a banking crisis. Although, inflation has an inverse u shaped relationship with the probability of a banking crisis.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the time consistency of optimal monetary policy in the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with considering the heterogeneity of expectations in the. The optimal monetary policy in the proposed theory is based on rational expectations. On the other hand, the homogeneity of economic agents and the way they shape their expectations is a mechanism that has always been taken into account in empirical studies. Some approaches for the standard models have shown that the predictions of inflation and production are not rational, or at least are irrational for some agents and some cases. In this study, we examine the effect of different shaping of individuals' expectations on macroeconomic variables and also investigate the distributional effects of monetary policy. Moreover, the problem of optimal dynamic policy is discussed under the terms of the rule and discretion with using the expectation operators of the economic agents. The results of this study show the monetary policy in the rational expectation approach affects inflation more than production, while in the context of comparative expectations, the real sector is influenced to monetary policy shocks more than inflation. Also, by stimulating inflation, in most cases, inflation has been tacitly higher than the inflation targeting in the five-year plans.

This paper uses dynamic spatial shift-share analysis to examine Production changes in Iran's provinces for the period of 2000 to 2014. This paper differs from the standard shift-share analysis by combining the dynamic shift-share with the spatial shift-share and decomposing the Production changes of selected sectors into four effects: national growth effect, structural effect, neighborhood competitive effect, and national competitive effect. The distances among the main cities of Iran’s provinces are considered in developing the distance based weight matrix for measuring neighborhood competitive effects. The research found that the effect of the structural change in the water, electricity and natural gas, construction communications, other mines, transportation, industry, and agriculture sectors are positive, therefore the share of the above sectors in the country is increasing and in the oil and other services sectors are negative. The highest neighborhood competitive effect among the provinces occurred in provinces of Bushehr, Tehran, Khuzestan, Kerman, Khorasan, and Isfahan while the least competitive advantage belonged to the province of Kohgilouyeh and Boyerahmad neighborhood competitive effect determine the leading sectors of each province. The national competitive effect is negative for all the provinces of the country, so most economic sectors of the country's provinces will have difficulty in attracting capital and production. Furthermore, it is estimated that the value-added growth rate of the provinces during 2014-2021 will be about 5.67 percent.

Theories of conventional economics say that the increase in consumption can increase the welfare (both objective welfare and subjective welfare) of individuals, but recent studies, which have been done by the economists of happiness found the opposite results. In fact, studies in this area show that if people spend their money on experiential purchases, they will get more subjective welfare. But the categorization of costs based on experiential and material leads to a lack of attention to the main motive for the consumption. In order to avoid this problem, in this paper, the expenditures of people is divided into six different groups based on their motivation and then, with the help of observations and data obtained from the completion of the questionnaires by residents over 20 years of age living in Tehran and by using one sample T-test and multivariate regression in SPSS22 software, the effect of the consumption on the welfare of individuals has been studied empirically. The results of this research show that, firstly, the mere use of subjective or objective indicators of welfare alone cannot give adequate insight into the state of the society, because it is possible that under the influence of some variables, these indicators diverge. Secondly, contrary to the beliefs of some economists that more consumption is essential for increasing the welfare of the society, all forms of consumption not only cannot increase the subjective welfare of individuals but also maybe incapable of satisfying the basic needs of individuals. Therefore, it seems that more research is needed in this area.

Tax avoidance has an ambiguous impact on economic growth, and the direction of the impact depends on the economic conditions of various countries. On the one hand, an increase in tax avoidance, through the decrease in the government revenues and its investments can negatively influence on the economic growth. On the other hand, it can lead to an increase in the imposable income and individuals saving which improve investment and economic growth. Considering the effect of human capital on the relationship between tax avoidance and economic growth complicates the relationships. Enhancement of human capital promotes social capital that reduce tax avoidance. Although the increase in human capital is coincident with learning new methods for avoiding the tax. This paper aimed to analyze the relationship between tax avoidance and economic growth by considering the effect of human capital. To do so, we introduce a mathematical model and with solving and calibrating the model analyze the relationship. The results indicate that tax avoidance inversely affects the economic growth in Iran.

In strategic trade policy, governments support their domestic firms in many ways in order to promote their performance in the international field. One of these ways is R&D subsidies. In this paper, the strategic interaction among two governments and two firms which exporting homogenous commodities to the global market is analyzed using the game theory. The interaction is analyzed in a two-stage dynamic game with complete but imperfect information setting, which in the first stage, governments decide about granting or not granting the subsidies to their domestic firms, and in the second stage, firms decide whether allocate resources to R&D or not. The unique subgame perfect equilibrium of the game indicates that governments support their domestic firms and firms allocate some resources to the R&D process. Although this outcome may result in the prisoner's dilemma for governments in developed countries, it is an optimal solution for developing countries such as Iran. The equilibrium is also consistent with the general policies of the resistive economy.

Considering the importance of implementing monetary policy in any economy, its impact on the main economic variables, including production, is very crucial. This paper examines and analyzes the effects of positive and negative monetary shocks on production in Iran using the MS-DSGE model during the period of 1979-2004. The results of this study indicate that positive and negative monetary policies in the recession periods, as well as boom periods, have asymmetric effects on the growth of domestic production. The effect of positive and negative monetary shocks on production is higher during the recession than during the boom. Generally, the monetary shocks are more effective during the boom than the recession. Accordingly, it is suggested that to achieve the economic goals policymakers should implement their policies during the economic recessions.

Traditional theories of international economics insist on the devaluation of the national currency as an effective policy to curb current account deficits. The recent literature, while stressing the vague effect of the devaluation of the national currency on the trade balance, emphasizes on the asymmetric response of commercial variables to exchange rate changes. This study aims to investigate the nonlinear relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance, using a smooth transition regression approach during period 1981-2014. The results of the model estimation, while confirming the nonlinear effect of real exchange rate on the trade balance, indicate that the effect of the real exchange rate variables, the degree of trade openness and the GDP growth rate on the trade balance depending on the regime in which the economy is operating.The results also show that in general the sum of real exchange rate coefficients in the first regime has a positive effect and in the second regime has a negative effect on the balance of trade. Also, the sum of coefficients of GDP growth rate in the first and second regimes have a negative effect on the trade balance.On the other hand, the sum of coefficients of trade openness in the first regime have a negative effect and in the second regime have a positive effect on business balance.

Provided working capital loans by Agricultural Bank have an important role in the agricultural productions growth. Certainly, to reduce the risk of loan repayment in the Agricultural Bank, the policies should be based on farmers' behavior. This paper is aimed to investigate the factors affecting the repayment behavior of the borrowers. So we use Ordered Legit model which ease the grouping of borrowers. The statistical population involves all farmers in North Khorasan province which borrow, through this type of loan (working capital loans for autumn planting), in the period of 1392-93. The sample includes 300 borrowers that are selected using stratified random sampling with proportional allocation.The results of the model estimation show that the effects of annual agricultural income, positive outstanding balance, ownership, history of borrowing loans, education level, and production scale on the loan repayment are statistically significant and positive. An increase in the level of these variables reduces the probability of farmers being in a group that default on some part or whole their loans.