فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 16 (پاییز 1382)

Technology and scientific knowledge developed by higher education play imperative role in the production process of manufacturing goods. Labor forces, in a higher level of education, are able to cause technological changes by which significant rises are occurred in commodity exporting capacity and competitive ability in international markets. The present paper investigates the impact of higher education on Iran’s manufacturing exports, and it tests the hypothesis that improvement in higher education, particularly in long run, can influence positively the non-oil export supply. Specifying an empirical framework and then using data for the period 1966–1999, we employ the Johansen – Juselius co-integration method and Error Correction Model (ECM) to estimate, respectively, long-run and short-run determinants of Iran’s manufacturing export supply. Overall, estimation results obtained reveal the fact that there is a substantial significant flexibility of higher education coefficient in the long-run export model, whereas the correspondent short-run coefficient is not statistically significant. The implication is that the policy makers should consider enhancement in higher education as the human capital role in the promotion of Iranian non-oil exports.

Consumption function explains the relationship between consumption expenditures and income. This study aims to estimate the aggregate consumption function in Iran during 1974-1998. Considering the presence of duality in the economy of Iran, the study deals with consumption function in rural and urban sectors, separately. In addition, another disaggregation has been made to consider the consumption of durable and non-durable goods in those two sectors. The study reviews the consumption theory of Keynes, Dusernberry, Modigliany as well as Friedman. Then it testes empirically these theories in the economy of Iran applying an econometric method using OLS, interactive Cochrane-Orcutt and two step Wallis technique. To avoid a spurious regression it was assured that all variables are cointegrated. Findings from this research show that the aggregate consumption in Iran during 1974-1998 is more compatible with Friedman’s theory of permanent income. Other related theories are not deliberately able to explain the consumption behaviour in Iran.The findings also show that the long-run consumption function in Iran slops up constantly with no intercept. Therefore, in the long run, the marginal propensity to consume in Iran equals the average propensity to consume.

The present paper applied Cointegration Vector Autoregressive (CVAR) Technique to Stone-Geary’s linear expenditure system, in order to estimate the residential demand for water in Metropolitan Tehran. Data used are for 1982-2000 period. Price-elasticity of the demand function is estimated as 8% for the point elasticity, and 12% for the average of duration. The income elastisities are estimated as 13% and 20%, respectively. This shows that the price elasticity of demand for water is inelastic. It is also indicated that the minimum use of water by Tehrani Citizens is 92 liters per-person per-day which is in the range of standard water use.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of real and nominal variables in inflation by using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). This model used liquidity growth, exchange rates growth, inflation rate, expected inflation as nominal variable and real output gap as real variable by employing seasonal data. The results show that the cause of inflation is not just the liquidity growth, the chronic inflation is also related to real variables. The VAR results show that in the short-run, nominal variables such as liquidity growth, and exchange rates do affect inflation rate. In the long run, however, stability of prices depends not only on monetary growth but also on the expected inflation and real output gap. The empirical results indicate that liquidity growth is endogenous and nominal variables are related to real output gap. The paper concludes that it is not enough to rely just on monetary policy to control prices in the Iranian economy and in the long run, real output gap should be reduced.

The low rate of economic growth in resource-abundant countries remains as a paradox for economists and socio-political scientists. There have been various explanations for this phenomena. One of the latest explanations considers the under-development of legal institutions as the major factor, which is indicated by non-cooperative and rent seeking behavior of the interest groups, leading to serious economic difficulties. This paper examines the case of oil boom in the context of modern approaches of political economy. The saving rate reaction is explained within the conflicting positions of interest groups in an oil exporting economy. The "Varacity Effect" is introduced and examined, indicating a counter cyclical behavior for the saving rate in a developing economy, where the rise in aggregate consumption may exceed the effects of resource boom. An econometric analysis of oil exporting economies indicates the experience of varacity effect in all OPEC members after the oil boom. In conclusion, it is argued that initiation of certain institutional reforms are crucial for improving the savings behavior and overall performance of resource-based economies.

Energy is one of the most important factors for economic development and progress. Natural gas having many advantages and providing 43 percent of primary energy in the country has a particular role among other energy sources. Analysis of energy market, in general, and energy demand, in particular, is very important in recognizing the role of energy and its usage in different areas of the country. The study of natural gas demand as one of the energy carriers in household sector is done in this work to find how the structure of consumers behaviour is. Analysis of the household demand elasticity to natural gas prices, per capita income, and average weather temperature help policy makers to provide required natural gas in an optimum form. Achieving this purpose, total and average demand functions of Tehran citizens are estimated on the basis of data during 1985 -1999 seasonally. Finally, income and price elasticities for natural gas are determined.