فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 116 (پاییز 1395)

The main aim in this research has been to determining the growth regime in Iran based on an open economy concerning the Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) model. This model which has been widely used in Post Keynesian economics is a Kaleckian-Post Keynesian macroeconomic model which is based on effective demand. Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) concerning wage as a cost item as well as a component of aggregate demand have considered both profit-led and wage-led regimes to study the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand. Considering gross operating surplus, compensation to employees, consumption expenditures, investment expenditures, capacity utilization, profit share, nominal currency rate and net exports, the impact of variation of profit share on consumption expenditures share, investment expenditures share and net export share of GDP, was first evaluated in a single equation for 1979 to 2013. Then, the total impact of profit share on total demand was estimated summing up the partial effects. The results show that redistribution in favor of profits results in reduction of consumption expenditures share, increase of investment expenditures share, and also increase in net export share of GDP. Based on the results, the regime of domestic demand in Iran is profit-led, and due to positive impact of profit share on international competitiveness, the total demand regime is also concluded to be profit-led.

The aim this research is the diagnosis of production chains in oil’s regions of Iran. For this reason, by using, input-output table for oil’s regions of Iran,linkages and production chains are identified. The results of research indicate that although oil and natural gas sectors contain 50 percent of region’s output, but it is not a leading sector. In contrast, manufacturing of species of machines is leading sector in oil’s region. The survey about production chains in oil’s regions of Iran indicates that coke and chemicals sector has longest chains in region. Meanwhile, The effects of electrics and bank and insurances sectors on oil and natural gas sector are direct.Moreover.although water and gas sectors in the region,have relative advantage, but they haven’t any role in the production chains in the region.
JEL Classification: D57, C67, R15, R12

We describe a simple model that fits well with Iranian economy, and extends a methodology which Chary at el. (2007) demonstrated. In addition to four traditional wedges, we introduce additional Trade wedge. We then evaluate the contribution of these wedges to the fluctuations in Iran during last three years. Because of international sanction, trading cost increases, and firms have difficulty to importing intermediate goods, which is used in production lines. The significance of which is measured by Trade wedge. The results show that efficiency wedge accounts fluctuations in output. Trade wedge unable to explain fluctuations in output, but by extracting the effect of the fluctuation of nominal exchange rate it accounts for recession in 2013. The fluctuation of nominal exchange rate in 2012 is the cause of increase in trade barrier, and international santions are the cause of increase in trade barrier in 2013.

Exchange rate and national income of countries trading with each other are among the most important factors affecting each country's trade. Considering the political and economic ties between Iran and Venezuela in recent years, the goal of this paper was to investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports of Iran to Venezuela. Data used in this research include annual data for the period of years 1362-1392. The uncertainty variable of exchange rate is calculated through the residuals of generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, while autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) are applied. The results indicate that the uncertainty coefficient of exchange rate is significant and negative in the short-run for exports model. However, in the long-run, it has no significant effect on exports. Also, the coefficients of GDP and exchange rate variables in the long-run are significant for both models at the significance level of 95 percent, while in the short-run, coefficient of exchange rate has no significant effect on exports.

Today, what is the focus of coherent regional and regional markets has been an increasing tendency for the exchange of goods and services is based on modern scientific technology. The use and application of knowledge and standards harmonization of domestic products with favorable global production, among the priorities of the economic policy of export development strategies, should be considered. One of the factors based on the export of high technology has considerable influence in different countries, is innovative initiatives and activities in various areas of science. Development of innovation and infrastructure suitable for use in the supply of national production has an important effect on the export of high technology. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of innovation on exports of high technology-based industries in selected developing and developed countries over the period 2007-2013 with panel data approach. Our results show that positive and significant effect on innovation on high-tech based exports in both developed and developing countries. Governance and human capital variables also show positive and significant effect on exports based on superior technology.

The banking sector has vital role in flow of funds in the Iran’s economy and any defect and inefficiency in this sector can lead to serious distortion in other sectors. On the other hand, banking activities face intrinsically different kinds of risk, and the credit risk is recognized as the most important one. The main goal of this study is to identify and explain the internal factors influencing the bank’s credit risk. Non-performing loans to total loans ratio is used as indicator of credit risk. The empirical evidences have been generated based on a panel data analysis in a sample of 17 Iranian banks during 1385 to 1393 period. The findings imply that the internal factors have a significant role in explaining the non-performing loans of banks.

Although entry of new firms is influenced by regional differences, the impact of location dimensions on entry has been received less attention in the literature of Iran's economy and hence this study tries to examine net entry of new industrial firms with the use of ten demographics characteristics in the regions of country during 2005 to 2013. In this study, econometric panel data methods have been used to estimate the possible effects of demographics variables on net entry of new firms. The results of this study showed a significant and positive relationship between net entry of new firms with variables of employment growth, the growth of bank deposits, population growth and security in the regions. As a political suggestion, government can have an important role in the creation of new firms in those regions by facilitating the access of firms to monetary and financial resources and providing security of regions.

Technological developments in various sectors and consider the speed and accuracy as an integral part of the decision-making process in the age of knowledge economy, has caused the disaster economy an important role in risk assessment and management in national and regional planning. The development of models used in this area, resulted in addition to direct effects of disasters on the economy, given its indirect consequences.
Although a lot of studies have been done in this field in the international dimensions, but this study in terms of thematic and geographic domain, has some innovations that makes it different from other studies. This research, with respect to the position of Tehran in GDP and its vulnerability in occurrence of some disasters such as earthquakes has selected. Using the provincial input-output table (14 parts) extraction of national input-output table with FLQ method updated by Ross method in 1390 (activity by activity given activity technology model), to calculate the vulnerability of the province in terms of the nonoperational risk. The results show that industry, wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles and goods and transport, storage and communications sectors, have higher investment priority compared with other sectors.

Research and development expenditure (R&D) in new literature plays an important role in economic growth. Investment in R&D, increase level of knowledge and enhances knowledge, increase production efficiency and from efficiency channel economic growth improved. Many studies have been done on the R&D not used unit of data for this variable. This is due to a lack of labor and the level of investment in R&D (because of the complexity of calculations and measurements of this invisible variable). In this study first, the series of capital and labor at different periods in the R&D was calculated and then the level of knowledge is considered as an unobservable variable in the production. We develop a multi objective recursive algorithm and estimated the level of knowledge series value during 1974-2013. These calculations by the authors can be very important for future studies in field of R&D. It should be noted that all programming of recursive algorithm developed by the authors in MATLAB software. This package written as form of software and it can expansion for different countries.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the existence of the new non-Ricardian regime policy in Iranian economy. We detected signs of the non-Ricardian regime from quarterly data of 1369 to 1391. To investigate further a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is designed to estimate the fiscal and monetary parameters using a Bayesian approach. Our results indicated a passive monetary policy and an active fiscal policy presence which are evidence of a new non-Ricardian regime. To prove the robustness of our results, criteria such as posterior odds ratio and impulse response functions are used in this research. Based on posterior odds ratio, Non-Ricardian policy has more ability to describe data than Ricardian policy. According to the impulse response function, in reaction to positive government debt shocks, Non-Ricardian policy implementation is more compatible with the behavior of the Iranian economy than the other.