فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 95 (تابستان 1390)

Generally, developing countries are not able to invest enough on R&D; therefore, they try to get benefit from knowledge spillover, as an external R&D. This paper tries to investigate the impact of R&D expenditures and imported intermediate goods, as a proxy for technology imports, on value added of Iranian industries. To that end, we use a panel data set of Iranian two-digit ISIC manufacturing industries, over the period 1995-2006. The results show that both internal R&D and technology imports have a positive and significant effect; and that the technology imports has a larger effect. Any attempt by the government to promote internal R&D and interaction with the rest of the world is recommended.

In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of income gap between 138 countries with USA by using time series model of convergence hypothesis and various panel unit root tests over period 1950-2008. All panel unit root tests don’t reject the null hypothesis of unit root. Univariate unit root tests results show that GDP per capita of South Korea, Switzerland, Austria, Lesoto and Hungry catch up with USA and GDP per capita of Syria, New zealand, and Jordan diverged from USA GDP per capita. The estimation shows that the breaks were clustered around specific dates, such as oil shocks or financial crises. Also,the results show that almost poor countries stay poor and almost rich countries stay rich yet. Only some countries same as South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, India, and China could escape lag deadlock and the countries e.g. Syria, Madagascar, Kenya, and Comoro moved into poverty trap. The distributions of GDP per capita in various years confirmed our results.

Considerable indirect taxes are obtained to finance different expenditures of governments. The indirect taxes have different and to somewhat contrary effects in the economy. This paper investigates on the effects of the indirect taxes on sectors’ products to finance the government expenditures. Using an input-output analysis, the effects of this policy on the cost-push price inflation and employment are examined. To do so, an input-output table of Iran for the year 2001/2 is employed as database. A simultanous consideration to the contractionary effect of the indirect taxation with the expansionary effect of the expenditures financed by these taxes is taken into account. Results of the research demonstrates that excuting this policy leads to an increment in the value of the producer price index (PPI) as well as improvement in the level of employment. However, the size of these effects are different for different sectors of economy.

World financial Crisis Occurred in 2008 affected many countries and caused to slow significantly global growth. Financial crisis is already causing a considerable Slowdown in some developing countries. This paper focuses on the implications of the ongoing global financial crisis and economic downturn for Iran's household income. We emphasize on two channels by which financial crisis spread to developing countries: trade and foreign investment. Using CGE model for analyzing the effects of financial crisis on Iran's household income show shat decline in export and import commodity price affect urban household income more than rural household income. While export decline in price and foreign saving reduce household income, import price downturn, compensate income reduction and as a result, urban and rural areas Income decreas slightly. Using CGE model show that 10 percentage reduction in import and export prices and foreign saving decreas urban and rural households income respectively 1.96 and. 8 percentage and enterprices income decrease by 0.01 percentage. Deepening financial crisis will have significant effects, so that 50 percentage decrease in import and export price and foreign saving decreases urban, rural and enterprices income by 11.5, 7.6 and 1.47 percentage respectively.

This paper estimates a structural cointegrating VARX model with exogenous variables for Iran. The long-run macroeconomic relationships are identified and tested within this framework. We make use of the Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition to analyze the dynamic properties of the model in response to different shocks. We also examine via the persistence profiles, the speed of adjustments to the long-run equilibrium following a system wide shock. The results show that money demand relation and output gap are not rejected within the model. Furthermore, these two long-run relations have well behaved persistence profiles in which the effects of shocks on the long run relations are transitory and die out eventually.

Following changes in economic fields, monetary transmission mechanism has been equipped with different approaches. For example, introducing and then applying the first draft of Basel committee’s capital requirement has portrayed new horizon in the monetary transmission mechanism discussions. While as the first step, it has been emphasized on the static role of bank’s capital; as the second step, it has been focused on the dynamic role of this variable (i.e. bank capital channel). However, after formulation and exertion of new Basel capital accord, the importance of bank capital channel revision is observed. In fact, due to the emphasis of new capital accord on credit ratings in the process of risk assessment and regulatory capital setting; as well as differentiate behavior and characteristics of applicable credit rating methods under this regulation; the importance of bank capital channel expansion via credit rating methods is unexpected. Hence in this article, the aforementioned process has been modeled by emphasis on the dynamic programming of a representative bank behavior in monopoly market. The results affirm the critical role of applied credit rating method in setting regulatory capital in monetary transmission mechanism.

Many empirical papers have applied a semi-parametric two-stage procedure named Tobit model to investigate the sources of inefficiency in different industries over the last two decades. Using this approach in small samples has recently been criticized for a possible bias in its results. In very recent papers Simar and Wilson (2007) have tackled this problem by suggesting an alternative bootstrap two-stage model in two algorisms including single and double bootstrap procedures. These algorisms both permit valid inference. Moreover, the double bootstrap procedure provides bias corrected efficiency estimates. The current study as one of the first inefficiency determinant studies over banking system applying Simar and Wilson (2005) procedure is to provide new empirical evidence of this approach. To this aim a dataset of Iranian banking system over 2002-2007 is utilized. The outcomes support Simar and Wilson (2007) in which the results of the conventional two-stage model are likely biased. More precisely, the double bootstrap shows quite different estimates for the parameter and confidence-intervals than the single bootstrap indicating that the bias and autocorrelation are significant problems in the two-stage model. The comparison of the results of double bootstrapped two-stage model and the single- stage panel data model (Coelli 1995) performed for the first time in this study exhibits a close similarity in the determinant factors of the technical inefficiencies and their confidence intervals. This finding support Coelli (2000) in which the single-stage panel data model provides unbiased and efficient estimates of determinant factors of the inefficiencies and their confidence intervals. The findings also suggest that Iranian Banks, by and large, would improve their efficiencies by moving toward privatization, holding less risky assets and last but not least focusing on economies of scale and economies of scope through broadening their sizes and products.

Considering the teachings of alternative economic school(s), a question is always posed on the necessity of such studies against the orthodox intellectual school. This question is more highlighted amidst the fact that the latter enjoys being labeled as "mainstream economics" and most economic and political decisions are made in most universities, academic circles as well as decision-making bodies according to the main trend. This paper tries to find an answer for this question and proposes two arguments for it: Firstly, from the viewpoint of philosophy of science, limiting scientific studies to a certain paradigm is impossible in human sciences and specifically in economics. Secondly, reflecting upon various paradigms not only enriches scholar's understanding of the main paradigm, but it will meet their needs in an attempt to find new approaches and strategies as well when new social, political, economic and cultural concerns arise.

Cinema industry is one of the main elements of cultural development. Development of cinema industry requires the identifying the various social, economic and cultural dimensions. This paper studies the economic characteristics of cinema in Iran. In this regard, it is necessary to identify the determinants of demand for movies and their demand elasticities. The computed elasticities have useful applications in economic policy-making, so that the effective plans regarding cultural and economic viewpoints in the regional and global scopes can be compiled. In this paper, relying on theoretical basics and using empirical studies, the affecting factors on demand for movies have been estimated for 28 provinces of Iran over the 2001-2008; and then demand for watching movies with decomposition of them into Iranian and foreign films has been estimated using ordinary least squares during 1971-2008. The estimation results of panel data model indicate that demand for movie has positive relationship with real per capita income and negative one with real price of cinema ticket. In addition the increased numbers of TV sets, personal computers and VCD and DVD players have the declining effect on the number of cinema attendants. As well, the estimation results using time series data indicate that demand for foreign movies in Iran comparing with demand for Iranian ones is more sensitive to changes in ticket prices and literacy rate.

The main purpose of this research has been to investigate whether inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance as measured by the behavior of inflation, economic output and their variability among the countries employing inflation targeting. In this regard we have looked for empirical evidence in a world sample of 21 developed and developing inflation targeting countries before and after their adoption of inflation targeting and compared their performance to a control group of 33 developed and developing countries which did not employ inflation targeting. We followed previous research procedures by testing for systemic differences in macroeconomic variables such as inflation levels between inflation targeting and non-targeting countries compared to previous levels of that variable. Our evidence as related to the different control groups suggests that inflation targeting generally helps countries to improve macroeconomic performance: - Inflation targeting helps countries achieve lower inflation and less variability - Inflation targeting reduces variability of growth rate - There is no obvious evidence about variability of growth rate