نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 9 (تابستان 1397)

Iran and Saudi Arabia are two influential pillars in the strategic Area of the Persian Gulf, which, in turn, have significant roles in developments in this region and even surrounding regions. Currently, because of different reasons, relations between two countries have moved towards being cloudy and divergence and an uncertain future for the two countries is imaginable. In this research, with a foresight view and aim to identification of indicators and divergence factors in relations between two countries and endevour to obviation these factors and progress in development of diplomatic friendly relations between two Islamic countries and supplying their national profits in time horizon of 10 years, and toward answering this question that “ what are the most important effective indicators and factors in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in time horizon of 1407 ?” , in the first step with studying of previous academic histories and records and with using the opinions of 14 experts, 73 indicators affecting the relationships between two countries have been obtained, and in the second step with formation of expert panel, similar indicators have been merged and 35 indicators have been identified, and after that with using the Friedman model, 15 important and affecting indicators have been identified, and in the end, with using the future studies software micmac and Crossover Matrix Analysis Method, 5 effective key factors in the future of relationships between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been identified

Wargaming is one of the techniques of futures studies that prepares military commanders to predict future threats and how to make decisions in different situations. The wargaming decision support system is used to optimize the use of manpower, equipment, and to choose the best solution against the opponent's strategy. The decision making process in the wargaming system includes decision makers and players, environmental factors, objectives, strategies and criteria. In this article, the decision making process in tactical and operational wargaming scenarios is described. To this end, the model of fuzzy zero sum games in the decision support system of tactical and operational wargaming is examined. In this model, linguistic variables are used to set the game's payoff table. By using alpha-cuts of fuzzy numbers, the payoff matrix of game with interval elements is obtained, and the expected payoff is written as interval and depend on alpha . By calculating expected value of expected payoff, payoffs as crisp are written. After evaluating objectives and criteria, a mathematical programming approach is proposed for each player. By solving these problems, optimal strategies of players are obtained. Finally, the modeling of a wargaming battle scenario is illustrated and the use and resolution of these models is described.

In the present era, the framework of the discourse of war has undergone major changes; this has led the strategies of the enemies, especially the United States, to shift towards intelligent approaches in the context of soft war and the armed forces of Iran have been one of their special targets in order to offend Iran's regime. This paper aimed to identify potential Soft War scenarios against the armed forces of Iran, as well as to explain the key factors and drivers behind it through the use of scenario planning and conducting interviews with 10 political-security elites in an expert panel. At the end, four probable scenarios of “schism and conflict," "sanctions and apostasy," "deception and projection," "transformation and influence," and 12 key factors and five major effective proponents were identified; solidarity between armed forces and various levels of society, solidarity and trust between commanders and government officials, religious identity and revolutionary beliefs, solidarity and trust among the personnel of the armed forces, especially the solidarity among its various components, and the religious, cultural, behavioral and social transformation are the most important factors influencing the scenarios. The most important drivers influencing key factors were economic, managerial, social, cultural, political, and ultimately  science and technology, respectively.

New emerging threats in the international environment have made essential future-oriented developments in the armed forces. The organizational culture convergent with this strategy is the most basic prerequisite for its advancement. Accordingly, the present study seeks to provide a model of the culture of future-oriented development in the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the statements of the Supreme Leader. This research is a practical and is done through mixed method (qualitative-quantitative). The construction of the model was carried out qualitatively by using the qualitative content analysis. The model testing has been done quantitatively using structural equation modeling (confirmatory factor analysis) by PLS software. The findings of the research show that the culture of future-oriented development consists of six main dimensions: opportunism (opportunism and opportunity utilization), new-borning (flexibility and dynamism), humanism (the importance of human capital and the development of human capital), spirituality (revolutionary values and religious values), Meritocracy (cognitive and behavioral competencies), and unity (intra-organizational and inter-organizational unity). Developing these cultural dimensions can facilitates effectiveness and successfulness of organizational development plans in compliance with future strategies of defensive organizations.

Passive defense studies are a pivotal process in which various analysis and rating techniques are used to provide an informed decision framework. In fact, the main objective of the research is to evaluate the location criteria of the 5th armed forces of Kerman, with the emphasis on passive defense, from the point of view of military experts. The type of research is applied and its method is descriptive-analytical. Data and data were collected using documentary and field methods (questionnaires). The statistical population consisted of 20 military experts serving in the zero caliber of Kerman, which are randomly selected using Delphi technique. In order to analyze the data, SPSS software utilizes the Kolmogorov Smirnov test and one-sample T-test, as well as to prioritize and measure the importance of the criteria using the DEMATEL technique using excel software. The findings of the research showed that the five-point karman zero garrison is a desirable situation in terms of assessing the focal point dimensions with an emphasis on passive defense in the 5th Kermans Zero Barracks. Also, the evaluation of military barracks placement criteria was emphasized by the military experts' point of view of access index with the highest value of 795/15 and the security index with the lowest value of 211/14, the natural-geographical-environmental index with the 0.24-most effective factor And the physical-space index of 0.208 are the most influential factors.

Threats in the future war scene. For this purpose, by examining the literature of previous studies and studies, a total of 14 primary factors related to the type of threats were identified. To confirm the identified factors, a questionnaire was distributed among the experts of experts and experts to 241 people. Finally, 230 questionnaires were collected. Then, the reliability of the questionnaire was assessed by Cronbach's alpha test and content validity in qualitative and quantitative form using two relative content validity and content validity index. The results showed the validity and reliability of the questionnaire. In order to screen the key factors, the questionnaire validity of the questionnaires was evaluated. In total, 8 factors were selected as the most important and final factors. Then, using the exploratory factor analysis method, the identified factors were classified into two types of classes and tools. In the next stage, a paired (fuzzy) questionnaire was designed and distributed among experts. Finally, 15 completed questionnaires were compiled. Then, the prioritization of the threats was done by Fuzzy AHP and Topsis. Finally, the results of cyberspace and warfare and artificial intelligence in weapons were given priority, respectively, with the presentation of practical suggestions for the studied community.