نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال بیست و هشتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 108، بهار 1396)

Accurate forecasts with zero error¡ regardless of the considered area and topics¡ are very difficult and almost impossible especially in forecasting process¡ in a very complex environment and through the thick cloud of uncertainties and several driving forces who affected the environment¡ and data and information used in forecasting have ambiguous and grey characteristics.The studies also confirmed that some international institutes have provided more accurate forecasts of macroeconomic variables of Islamic Republic of Iran. In the present study which was conducted by quantitative study¡ trying by using real data¡ secondary analysis and documents methods the error of forecasting four international institutes such as The Business Monitor¡ The Economy Watch¡ The International Monetary Fund and The World Bank in the time span of 20 years (1993-2013) has been calculated. And also by using the Gary Markov Method and combined methods presented a new model which has based on statistical analysis it is proven that this model has less deviation and forecast error than the separated forecasts of each mentioned international institute. Finally¡ it suggests a native and reliable model for the functional and operational use in providing more accurate forecast of Iran macroeconomic variables (economic growth rate and Iran''s inflation rate) by two national institutes (Iran Statistical Center and IRI Central Bank).

The main aim of this research is study of relationships between administrative discipline and professional ethics with organizational health in Alborz Payame Noor university staff.
This study is an applied research according to the goals and objectives of the research and the method used in the carrent research is correlational.
The current research statistical population includes all of the employees in Alborz Payame Noor university for measuring the sample size in the carrent research the Cochran's formula was used and regarding the fact that the population size was 260 individuals.
Consequently, 152 employees were selected but dueto possible sample loss 230 questionnaires were distributed among the population. Finnally 203 questionnaires were returned to the researcher. Also for sampling in this research the simple random sampling was used.

From the beginning, Operations Research or decision models have been met with several developments. Futures survey of OR and the necessity of planning for it in literature is considered less. Sporadic activities in the literature haven’t required methodological. This study aims to identify the exploratory scenarios of OR by Critical Uncertainties approach. To develop the plausible scenarios of OR, the comments of domestic and foreign experts were collected by questionnaire with Delphi approach. After extracting the uncertainties, the plausible scenarios of OR were identified by seminar workshops. These scenarios include: solar system, Esfandiar eye, competitor Satraps, Phoenix. Imagination of the single future for all academic departments is away from reality. According to the conditions, each of these futures and a combination of them are imaginable.

Forecasts of cash flows are considered by investors, creditors,firm employees and rating institutions. Investors regard cash flows as the input of their investment models allowing them to make decisions about returns resulted from the divided profit and capital. Creditors are interested in the decisions of paying the firm obligations exchanging with them and the employees are concerned with cash flows in terms of job security and persistence of activities of firm that they are working there. Persistence of activity and the firm ability in timely payment of debts are also highly important for rating institutions. The main purpose of the present study is the investigation of forecasting cash flows among 97 firms from the listed firms of Tehran Stock Exchange from the beginning of 1388 to the end of 1392.To investigate the research hypotheses, it was used from panel data regression model. The results showed that the costs of sold goods and the public and administrative costs have significant impacts on forecasting cash flows, however, sales, change in the payable accounts, change in the receivable accounts, change in inventory, tax and cash flows of the last year have not significantimpacts on forecasting cash flows.

This study is about Export Market Orientation as key of international organization’s success with inter organizational relationship approach. Inter organizational relationships can help companies to use their maximum strengths to appear better products, services and newideas. Success of active companies depends on the organization’s strategic orientation and this success is related to market-orientation. In this research, we try to express the impact of interorganizational relationships on export market orientation and export performance. Statistical data of the research are collected by questionnaire which distributed among the export managers and experts in macaroni exporter Companies in Iran. The techniques of confirmatory factor analysis and the technique of structural equations modelling are used. Results show that inter organizational relationships have a positive effect on export market orientation and export performance. Inter-organizational relationships are motive forces for market oriented behavior in organization. Organization must concentrate on these relations to improve their performance.

The futures is discover and create through language And the issue of terminology and the concepts and appropriate terminology has been a continuing challenge for the field of futurology. The aim of this study philological and conceptual confusion in the field of futurology. This is a descriptive study using library information and critical analysis is done. One aspect of futurology studies, attention to the terminology of the field. In this study the effect of different geographical and cultural origins of the historical process of the formation of words realm of futurology is investigated. By analyzing the similarities and differences as well as futurology literature, general and particular relationships, and the realm of futurology and foresight activities is also provided. Finally, researchers have proposed the term futurology to call this science. This study tried to present an overview of the principles of linguistic philosophy and classification of definitions, a framework for thinking and reflection in dealing with futurology words and their definitions is available to researchers.

The present study aims to investigate the relationship between the organizational resilience and the competitiveness and sustainable competitive advantage in the Bojnord Cement Company. In terms of method, it is a correlation analysis. For data collection three questionnaires were used: "Organizational Resilience Standard Questionnaire derived from McManus’ Model(2008), a researcher-made questionnaire for investigation of Porter's Five Forces of Competition, and Sustainable Competitive Advantage Questionnaire Hill and Jones(2010), which contain 54, 20 and 16 questions, respectively. According to thecollected data, the number of employees serving in Bojnord Cement Company is 600 people. Based on the Cochran formula the number of samples taken into account was 234. Therefore, to summarize data after data collection by statistical software Spss 21 and Lisrel 8.5, first of all the normality of the data was evaluated and the selected scale was confirmed. Results indicated that there is a relationship between the independent variable of organizational resilience and the competitiveness and sustainable competitive advantage; and between two dependent variables of competitiveness and sustainable competitive advantage, with a 0.095 percent certainty. These results confirm the overall resilience as well as the organizational competitiveness and competitive advantage is that a significant amount is calculated 0/9 , That is a significant amount. The test statistic (t-value) is also obtained 10/47 that Suggesting the relationship is so significant relationship between resiliency and organizational competitiveness and competitive advantage there.