نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال بیست و هشتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 109، تابستان 1396)

The purpose of this paper is to determine policy priorities in order to reduce traffic deaths in a 10-year vision by concerning traffic deaths scenarios. In this regard, the methods of foresight are used to make policy intelligently and effectively. Therefore in the first step, the historical process is achieved by literature review and interviews with experts. Then, by futures studies methods, factors affecting the traffic deaths issue based on expert opinion has been recognized by using the Joseph Voros model in three levels of events and trends, structures and worldview, and then classified and categorized by cross impact analysis (CIA) method. The outputs of this method are the driving factors, political factors and indicators that policy making and evaluation will be provided by these possible scenarios. The scenario building with three main uncertainties in three levels including the value and discourses, rules and economic conditions, led to the formation of eight main scenario space that among these scenarios, 4 plausible scenarios were selected based on the expert opinions. Then, policies to reduce traffic deaths were formulated based on expert's opinions and according to the overall health policies and Hadun matrix, and were examined by selected scenarios. Assessment process was performed by taking into account three main criteria of social justice, financial constraints and priority of prevention over treatment and finally, the policy of education and cultural policies (first priority), strengthening the punitive laws (second priority) and increasing the police surveillance and control with maximum participation of citizenship (third priority) were selected as sustainable policies to reduce traffic death.

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Today, organizations have special focus on supply chain integration and providence of this. The presence of integration in supply chain is sustainability potency as a strategic source which will cause value creation for chain stakeholders. Sustainability and supply chain management are two importance scope for future research, sustainability development with conservation now generation, has to conservation futurity for their garnishment basic needs too. Sustainability providence is complex subject that include various approach such as environment, social and providence approaches. Obtained through the commitment of organizations to keep and protect environmental, social and economic advantages or benefits and will lead to the improvement and promotion of organizational performance. Thus, the present study aims to investigate impact of sustainability providence on strategic integration supply chain in Iran Khodro's supply chain by using the sustainability model. In the present study, the structural equation method with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (smart PLS-SEM) software was used for confirmatory factor analysis. Finally, the fitness of the presented model with high validity was confirmed and then was used in Iran Khodro's supply chain after being confirmed by industry and university experts. The obtained results were suggested to promote the process of the proposed supply chain integration with providence approach.

Financial market forecasting particularly stock market forecasting is a considerable debate that confront to forecast failure and model break down when structural breaks in trends occur. This paper discusses the modeling to predict stock return under structural breaks and investigate new approaches of forecasting in this condition. This study proposes a taxonomy for research area in forecasting under structural breaks to suggest further studies. We use literature survey as methodology of the research and categorizes the methods, models, and results of the recent researches in stock market forecasting. Consequently, it provides three categories of strategies to forecast stock return under structural breaks. First strategy, called economically motivated model restrictions, uses financial theories as signs to adjust the parameters of models in out-sample periods. Second strategy, known as regime shift, uses a Markov chain transition matrix to model structural breaks in time series. Third strategy applies mix of quantitative models and qualitative surveys to predict future of financial markets. The proposed strategies are applicable in Tehran stock exchange under uncertainty conditions.

In this article we want to find factors which affect on brand extension success, in order we can examine effecting local factors that help FMCG`s Iranian companies introduce their new products whit this strategy. So, the aim of this paper is study the effect of factors such as: "self-connection, quality, nostalgia, marketing activities & brand features" on attitude & behavior of a consumer about a product with an extended brand; & also the effect of attitude on behavior. Therefore, we analyze consumers` reaction about an assume product with Parjak extended brand (low-fit) & a real product with Taj extended brand (high fit). In this descriptive-survey article, for gathering data we use a questionnaire. Findings among others indicate that: Parjak: (which doesnt have extending experience & in this paper it`s extended product is assumed –low fit): "Self-connection, quality, nostalgia, & brand features" affect on "behavior" & "self-connection, & quality" affect on consumer`s "attitude". Taj: (which has extending experience & in this paper it`s extended product is real–high fit): "Self-connection, quality, nostalgia, &, marketing activities" affect on "behavior" & "self-connection, & quality" affect on consumer`s "attitude".

In changing and dynamic world, the managers need to become sensitive to the dynamic uses of brand management. Have to look at marketing issues with a systematic approach to predict the effects of their decisions before occurring in the future by using an integrated tool. Brand equity is a source of competitive advantage that reduces the Company's vulnerability to crises and competitors, then, creating a strong brand and its improvement appears to be the ultimate goal of marketing activities, especially service businesses, which can improve and increase the rate of return on brand investment. The aim of this study was to design and analysis system dynamics of brand equity capable of simulating the effect of variables (brand loyalty, perceived quality, brand awareness, brand association) over time. In this paper, brand equity in Alborz insurance company was designed within a systematic thinking, and using the system dynamic tools, the behavior of variables was predicted on a 72-month by using of Vensim software. The main variables were initially identified. Then, their relationships were completed in the form of causal loops and accumulation- flow diagram. Finally, the model was simulated in the software. Then, through analysis of sensitivity and policy, a valid model by an improved policy structure was obtained, which was used to develop the brand equity improvement scenario. It was clarified in the best scenario that by changing the parameters, brand equity will rise from 61.7% at the beginning of the base year to 84.2% at the end of the simulation.

Context: Scenarios have traditionally been used to describe the possibility of replacing future developments in the external environment, which are then used to assess the current strategy and develop future strategies. However, with a shift in focus away from the market-based paradigm towards a resource-based view of strategies, scenarios can also be used to describe alternatives for internal development paths of an organization. Then, these two types of scenarios can be systematically developed and used as significant features of an early strategic warning system (Future Scorecard). This research tries to provide a systematic approach towards strategic foresight by combining internal scenarios (resource-based view) and external scenarios (market-based view) within a mechanism called the future scorecard that can be used to describe alternative ways of internal development in organizations. By studying existing literature, as well as numerous examples, tries to develop the concept of future scorecard. The findings suggest that the external (market-based) and internal (resource-based) approach to building an early strategic warning system should be combined.
This research tries to provide a systematic approach towards strategic foresight by combining internal scenarios (resource-based view) and external scenarios (market-based view) within a mechanism called the future scorecard that can be used to describe alternative ways of internal development in organizations.
By studying existing literature, as well as numerous examples, this research tries to develop the concept of future scorecard.
Finding and The findings suggest that the external (market-based) and internal (resource-based) approach to building an early strategic warning system should be combined. It also showed that the future scorecard includes performance indicators, change indicators, critical market indicators, and strategy premises