نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال بیست و هشتم شماره 3 (پیاپی 110، پاییز 1396)

In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in ​​order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert team was formed and they selected scenario development method (GBN) as a favorable futuristic planning. So library and field studies concluded by huge volumes of baseline studies, review of dozens of articles and administrative documents in addition to interviews. After recognizing key elements and driving forces, experts accredited these factors by their interactions in four specialized PEST panels, and potential defects were resolved. Then researchers identified two elements of "economic situation" and "cultural integrated management" as critical uncertainties and constructive scenario development axes based on the findings and Cross Impact Analysis. We have been considered level of integrated management (organizational and more broadly) and caused to describe total six inductive scenarios including preferable, probable and possible ones. Meanwhile guidance indicators and advices were described in order to make fields to shape better decisions and policies besed on Astan Quds Razavi vision.

Scientific and technological advancements affect countries in all aspects of human life and terms of socio-economy, culture, politics and environment so increasingly that many plans would be outlined to strengthen the supply and demand for technology. Techno-market is a mechanism that expedites the development operations of theology specially advanced technologies.
Despite the importance of technology to the domestic industries, and recent financings for research and development of new technologies, informal evidence indicates an infelicitous technical cooperation among industries. Nevertheless, innumerous technologies have been developed in various departments as the enterprises need different technologies.
Evidence indicates that the previous experiences of applying techno-market has not been much successful and economic exploitation of technology has not been materialized, either. So present research end eavors to specify effective factors on success or failure of techno-market and present solutions and patterns to develop techno-market functions such as increasing the profitability of enterprise technology exchanges, and helping departments, organizations, and domestic industries appoint these solutions.

One of the most important tools in the hands of managers and experts to make strategic decisions is Methods of forecasting and futures. Despite the development of prediction methods, but less likely to use these methods in predicting social phenomena such as marriage, divorce and population growth are discussed. In this study, using data from marriage and divorce between the years 1992 to 2013 in Ilam province to forecasts, the number of these phenomena using models Box Jenkins, Artificial Neural Network and Adjusted Exponential has been studied for years to come. The results showed that the prediction accuracy Box Jenkins model to predict the number of marriages and Artificial Neural Network model to predict the number of divorces is more than any other prediction methods. The predicted values showed that the proportion of marriages end in divorce in Ilam province between the years 2014 to 2018 following the gentle slope, to reduce the move.

Nowdays, using a process framework for extracting uncertainties and driving forces specially in dynamic and turbulent environment is essental to perform a broad extent of futures studies like strategy design and assessment, scenario planning. In this environment, managers and decision makers require methods for identifying factors that shape the future in the shortest possible time based on the results of previous studies. Traditional methods couldnot meet this requirement. In this paper, a process framework has been designed for extracting uncertainties and driving forces in a reasonable time based on the previous studies. In order to show the practically and usefulness of the proposed framework an empirical study of the oil and energy industry is demonstrated. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed model for extracting uncertainties and driving forces.

Scenarioscripting and development, one of the most important method in futures studies, can be resulted by using logic sequence of events methods like "probability scenario tree ". This method, despite its special benefits, was less valued by researchers and scenario planner.Trees were rarely used as a development tools but in this research, authors attempt to explain a special methods step by step that can set new writing and reading style for future scenarios examined in topics entities.
In this way, contact to scenario is operated successively. Then possible future situations and images with conditional probabilities can be seen as a tree with a distinct routes from root (now status) to end which appear asa scenario.Identified key variables as driving forces of investigated matter and determining different and discrete status of them could make different chronological order of their occurrence apparentand the conditional probabilities from node to node towards the future can be calculated. In this study, the researchers scanned the scientific literature and developed apractice step by step in a case study entitled " Next 5 Years Tehran Stock ExchangeScenarios". Wetried to perform this method and deliver feedback to strengthenit through interviews and questionnairesand library studies too.The results of applying this method in Tehran Stock Exchange shows approval logic on probability calculations method and chronology of events.Events followed from the pre-known chance percent by experts and was so interesting.The advantages of thisexpert-based method are to strengthen the recognition and diagnosis of favorable and unfavorable scenarios with probability of their occurrence, appearing future state mapat a glance, recognizing the transformational interruptionpointsand Milestones in the future, sensitivity analysis and contingency planning. Results and outputs of this method can make fertile field for scenarios based planning and processing by experts, so thatit provides to imagine the future throughdeeperunderstanding and insight in the complex decision-making.

The purpose of this research is the relationship between Futurology with research experience and research self-efficacy of M.A. students of Islamic Azad University of Sari. And it's implementation method is descriptive and correlational. The statistical population in this research consist all 5112 MA. Students of 2015-2016 from Islamic Azad University of Sari. From that 361 students were randomly selected based on Krejcie and Morgan sampling table and applying stratified sampling method. For data collection was used the library and the field method. The data collection tool in this research was three researcher-made questionnaire included research experience, Futurology and research self-efficacy. The content validity of these questionnaires was approved by supervisors, advisors and experts in the field and their reliability was obtained by using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, respectively (83%, 91% and 86%). To analyze the data was used two statistical methods included descriptive statistics (frequency, indicators mean and standard deviation) and inferential statistics (wilcoxon test non-parametric methods, spearman correlation test, strong regression). For analysis was used spss software and LISREL. Findings from the research suggest that the meaningful relationship was established between the Futurology with research experience and research self-efficacy of M.A. students of Islamic Azad University of Sari.

Many researches in recent years show specific effects of different variables on good governance practices. In some, the researchers have shown the great impact of e-governance on good governance and vice versa. This research aims to find the underlying relations among e-governance on good governance. This paper can be categorized to descriptive (based on the nature), library study (based on the data gathering method), fundamental theoretical research (based on objective). This paper uses a quantitative research method by utilizing Kalman Filter as a data mining (prediction) tool. The results obtained from current trend analysis has showed that there is a strong relations between e-governance and good governance proportionally. Scenario-based analysis also figured out that the change in good governance level on the e-governance has more impact than the change in e-governance level on the good governance.