فهرست مطالب

مجله جغرافیا و توسعه
پیاپی 26 (بهار 1391)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1390/12/28
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • سیدعلی بدری، حسنعلی فرجی سبکبار، مجتبی جاودان، حجت الله شرفی صفحه 1
    توسعه پایدار روستایی بر مبنای نگرشی کل نگر، در راستای تحقق بخشی به ایجاد و استمرار فرایندهای توسعه در ابعاد مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی نواحی روستایی است. پایش چنین رهیافتی در عمل، نیازمند توجه به عناصر و عوامل تاثیرگذاری است که در قالب مجموعه شاخص های پایداری و در یک چارچوب منسجم و به هم پیوسته ارایه و تبیین شوند. هدف این تحقیق شناخت و طراحی فرآیند تحلیل شبکه تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره در سنجش توسعه پایدار و تبیین پیوندهای بین عناصر و عوامل فعال و موثر در این زمینه است که دستیابی به آن از طریق بررسی ویژگی ها، مولفه ها و معرف های توسعه پایدار در یک ناحیه روستایی واقع در محدوده شهرستان فسا از استان فارس با استفاده از مدل های تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره (MCDM) و فرآیند تحلیل شبکه ای (ANP) و با بهره گیری از مدل وایکور انجام شده است.
    در این تحقیق از شاخص های لحاظ شده مربوط به هریک از ابعاد پایداری برای سنجش نواحی روستایی استفاده شده است. بر اساس چنین هدفی، فرضیه تحقیق این گونه صورت بندی شده که بین سطوح پایداری (اجتماعی، اقتصادی و محیطی) منطقه مورد مطالعه تفاوت معناداری وجود دارد. روش شناسی تحقیق توصیفی و تحلیلی بوده و با استفاده از مدل وایکور 250 خانوار از چهار بخش شهرستان فسا مورد بررسی قرار گرفته که در فرایند انجام آن، پس از محاسبه وزن ها با استفاده از تکنیک تحلیل شبکه، تفاوت در میزان پایداری ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و محیطی نواحی روستایی این شهرستان مشخص می شود. یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد این روش برای حل مسائل تصمیم گسسته، بر مبنای انتخاب بهینه ترین گزینه از میان گزینه های موجود بر اساس رتبه بندی از قابلیت بالایی برخوردار است.
    کلیدواژگان: توسعه پایدار، رتبه بندی پایداری، مدل و ایکور، نواحی روستایی، شهرستان فسا
  • فریدون بابایی اقدم، حسین ابراهیم زاده آسمین صفحه 21
    نکته ی قابل توجه در بررسی اجمالی ارقام فزاینده ی شهرنشینی، فرایند تبدیل کاربری های زراعی و بایر به سطوح ساخته شده اعم از کاربری های شهری، فراشهری و صنعتی و غیره می باشد. امروزه، اغلب مناطق برخوردار از توسعه ی کالبدی بسیار زیاد در مناطق مختلف جهان، شهرهای دارای مرکزیت سیاسی و اقتصادی می باشند. مدل های فضایی تغییرات کاربری اراضی ابزار مهمی در جهت تحلیل وضعیت ممکن این تغییرات در آینده نزدیک می باشند.
    هدف از این مقاله در وهله ی اول تبیین میزان و نحوه تبدیل کاربری های زراعی و بایر موجود در منطقه شهری اردبیل به سطوح ساخته شده و در وهله بعدی مدلسازی الگوی آتی این تغییرات تا افق 1400 با استفاده از مدل کلو_اس می باشد. بدین منظور از تصویر ماهواره ای منطقه اردبیل در سال 1367 ماهواره اسپات و تصویر 1386 ماهواره ای IRS جهت تهیه ی نقشه ی کاربری اراضی سال های مربوطه استفاده شده است.
    تحلیل آماری میزان و نوع روابط بین متغیرهای وابسته و مستقل تحقیق با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک در نرم افزار SPSS صورت گرفته است. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از وقوع تغییرات کاربری در مکان هایی با بالاترین درجه مطلوبیت مکانی برای نوع خاصی از کاربری اراضی می باشد که وضعیت آتی آنها در قالب 2 سناریوی تغییرات کم و زیاد ارائه شده است. به نحوی که بیشترین میزان از تغییرات در مناطق جنوبی و جنوب غربی شهر به وقوع خواهند پیوست که محلات مسکونی کوثر، دادگستری، مخابرات، ولایت نادری و کارشناسان را شامل خواهد شد.
    کلیدواژگان: مدلسازی، تغییرات کاربری اراضی، توسعه فیزیکی، مدل Clue، S و اردبیل
  • مجتبی یمانی، سیامک شرفی صفحه 35
    آبراهه ها سیستمی کاملا پویا هستند و موقعیت، شکل و دیگر مشخصه های مورفولوژیکی آنها به طور پیوسته و در طول زمان تغییر می کند. در این پژوهش، مورفولوژی رودخانه ی هررود در استان لرستان با استفاده از روش مقایسه زمانی- مکانی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. با استفاده از عکس های هوایی سال 1334 و تصاویر ماهواره ای سال 1386 بستر هررود در دو دوره ی زمانی و در محیط نرم افزار Arc GIS رقومی گردیده و سپس در محیط نرم افزاری Auto Cad پارامترهای هندسی رودخانه مانند طول موج، ضریب خمیدگی، شعاع نسبی و نظایر آن برای بررسی تغییرات با روش برازش دایره های مماس بر قوس رودخانه اندازه گیری شده است. با توجه به تشابه نسبی ژئومورفیکی مسیر آبراهه به 4 بازه ی تقسیم شده و سپس پارامترهای مذکور و تغییرات به وجود آمده در طول مسیر رود با توجه به شکل و الگوی رودخانه مورد مقایسه قرار گرفته اند.
    پارامترهای هندسی به دست آمده در بازه های مورد مطالعه و مقایسه ی این پارامترها با یکدیگر نشان می دهد که بیشترین تغییرات در بازه ی 1 به علت شریانی بودن رودخانه، فرسایش پذیر بودن سازندهای کنار بستر، افزایش بار رسوبی کف و در نهایت فرسایش کناری رودخانه روی داده است. از طرفی در بازه های 2 و3 تغییرات کمتری دیده می شود اما این تغییرات نسبت به گذشته افزایش پیدا کرده و رودخانه حالت پیچان رودی پیدا کرده است. در نهایت در بازه ی 4 به علت کوهستانی بودن و تاثیرپذیری مسیر رودخانه از عوامل توپوگرافی، الگوی رودخانه مستقیم بوده و فقط در چند قوس، تغییر به صورت خیلی جزیی دیده می شود.
    کلیدواژگان: ژئومورفولوژی، رودخانه، هررود، پارامترهای هندسی، تغییرات رودخانه، استان لرستان
  • مهدی پورطاهری، محمدحسین پاپلی، علیرضا فلاحی صفحه 49
    توسعه تعاونی های کشاورزی در قالب تعاونی های صید و صیادی، گل و گیاه، زنبورداری، دامپروری، جنگل داری، مرغداری و زنبورداری را می توان راهکار بسیار مناسبی در جهت توسعه کشاورزی، ارتقاء سطح دانش و آگاهی روستاییان، بهره برداری از منابع روستا، افزایش محصولات کشاورزی، جذب سرمایه و افزایش فرصت های شغلی محسوب نمود.
    اگرچه در سال های اخیر توسعه و ایجاد تعاونی های کشاورزی مورد توجه برنامه ریزان کشور قرار گرفته است اما تاکنون به طور نظام مند ارزیابی جامعی از ایجاد تعاونی های کشاورزی در تحقق اهداف توسعه روستایی صورت نپذیرفته است. در سال های اخیر استان لرستان به ویژه شهرستان خرم آباد شاهد توسعه قابل توجه تعاونی های کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی خود بوده است.
    بررسی جامع به شیوه اسنادی و میدانی در خصوص عملکرد تعاونی های کشاورزی شهرستان خرم آباد در نزد دو گروه مدیران و اعضای تعاونی ها در سه بعد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و محیطی نشان داد که تعاونی های کشاورزی از دیدگاه اعضاء از نظر مسائل اجتماعی، اقتصادی و محیطی موفق بوده اما از دیدگاه مدیران عامل به ویژه از نظر مسائل اقتصادی و محیطی دارای عملکرد موفقیت آمیزی نبوده اند.
    کلیدواژگان: ارزیابی، عملکرد تعاونی های کشاورزی، مناطق روستایی، خرم آباد
  • مهدی اژدری مقدم، محمود خسروی، حسین حسین پور نیکنام، احسان جعفری، ندوشن صفحه 61
    هدف تحقیق حاضر، پیش بینی خشکسالی های پاییزه ی زاهدان به وسیله متغیرهای ورودی مختلف می باشد. این متغیرها عبارتند از: بارندگی، مقادیر پیشین شاخص خشکسالی SPI و 19 عدد از شاخص های اقلیمی. برای این منظور، میانگین سه ماهه اکتبر- نوامبر- دسامبر شاخص خشکسالی SPI به عنوان متغیر خروجی انتخاب شد. سپس هرکدام از متغیرهای ورودی یاد شده، در تاخیرهای زمانی صفر، 1، 2 و 3 ماهه (به ترتیب میانگین سه ماهه اکتبر-نوامبر-دسامبر، سپتامبر-اکتبر- نوامبر، آگوست- سپتامبر- اکتبر و ژولای-آگوست- سپتامبر) وارد مدل شدند. مدل های پیش بینی نیز با استفاده از مدل فازی- عصبی ANFIS توسعه داده شدند.
    بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، در تاخیر زمانی صفر، بارندگی و شاخص اقلیمی Nino3 به ترتیب با ضرائب همبستگی 0.97 و 0.75 و خطاهای 0.13 و 0.33 مناسب ترین متغیرهای ورودی را تشکیل دادند؛ در تاخیر زمانی 1 ماهه، بارندگی، شاخص خشکسالی SPI و شاخص اقلیمی AMO به ترتیب با ضرائب همبستگی 0.67، 0.72، 0.65 و خطاهای 0.36، 0.35 و 0.39 بهترین متغیرهای ورودی را شامل شدند؛ در تاخیر زمانی 2 ماهه، شاخص اقلیمی SOI با ضریب همبستگی 0.78 و خطای 0.31 به عنوان بهترین متغیر ورودی انتخاب شد و در نهایت در تاخیر زمانی 3 ماهه، شاخص اقلیمی AMO با ضریب همبستگی 0.59 و خطای 0.42 مناسب ترین متغیر ورودی را تشکیل داد.
    کلیدواژگان: پیش بینی خشکسالی، شاخص SPI، شاخص های اقلیمی، مدل فازی، عصبی ANFIS، زاهدان
  • منوچهر فرج زاده اصل، علی باهوشی صفحه 73
    از بین عوامل محیطی که در بروز تصادفات جاده ای نقش قابل توجهی دارند، سهم پدیده های اقلیمی همچون لغزندگی، بارش برف، مه و یخبندان بیشتر می باشد. در این پژوهش سعی شده اثرات شرایط جوی بر وقوع 1756 تصادفات منجر به فوت در طول دوره 20 روز تعطیلات نوروز 1386 در محورهای پرتردد کشور مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گیرد. بدین منظور ابتدا نقاط تصادفات بر حسب کیلومتر از مبدا بر روی محورها نقطه یابی گردید. همچنین اطلاعات هواشناسی، برای هر کدام از ایستگاه ها،پس از کنترل و آماده سازی وارد نرم-افزار GIS گردید.
    تحلیل وضعیت اقلیمی در این دوره نشان می دهد که روزهای 25، 26 و 29 اسفندماه و همچنین روزهای 8 تا 10 و 14 فروردین ماه در بیشتر بخش های کشور شرایط جوی نامناسبی حاکم بوده است. با بررسی تصادفات رخ داده مشخص شد که بیشتر تصادفات در 20 کیلومتر اول از مبدا و در ساعت های 15 تا 18 اتفاق افتاده است. در مرحله ی بعد با توجه به فراوانی تصادفات در روزهای مختلف مشخص شد که در روزهای 29 اسفند، 8 و 9 فروردین و نیز 13 و 14 فروردین میزان تصادفات به طور محسوس افزایش پیدا کرده است. می توان نتیجه گرفت که این افزایش، به غیر از برخی روزها که بالا رفتن حجم سفر می تواند باعث افزایش میزان تصادفات شود، بیشتر به دلیل حاکم بودن شرایط جوی نامناسب در کشور می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: تصادف جاده ای، اقلیم، تعطیلات نوروز، جاده، ایران
  • حمید نظری پور، رشید سعیدآبادی صفحه 87
    در این پژوهش، جهت تعیین فصول اقلیمی زاهدان از مجموعه داده های روزانه و ساعتی پارامترهای حرارتی در قالب 21 متغیر در دوره آماری 35 ساله (1383-1349) استفاده گردیده است. ابتدا پایگاه داده ای از متغیرهای مورد بررسی در نرم افزار مت لب ایجاد شد. با توجه به اینکه هدف از این پژوهش گروه بندی بود ماتریس داده ها با آرایش P تهیه گردید. آرایشP آرایشی از ماتریس پایگاه داده است که در آن سطرها را زمان و ستون ها را عناصر اقلیمی تشکیل می دهند. سپس میانگین درازمدت روزانه ی متغیرهای اقلیمی در دوره ی مورد مطالعه برای هر یک از روزهای سال محاسبه گردید. در این صورت ابعاد ماتریس به 21*365 کاهش و همه سری ها به نمرات استاندارد تبدیل گردیدند. در نهایت، اجرای تحلیل خوشه ایبر روی ماتریس استاندارد شده با محاسبه فاصله به روش اقلیدسی و ادغام به روش وارد نشان داد که چهار فصل اقلیمی متمایز و متفاوت از فصل تقویمی بر زاهدان حاکم می باشد. مطالعه ویژگی های این فصل های حرارتی نشان می دهد که زمستان و تابستان در زاهدان دیرتر شروع شده و دیرتر پایان می گیرد. فصل گرم و سرد طولانی ترین و فصل خیلی گرم کوتاه ترین فصول می باشند. یافتن دوره های اقلیمی سرد و گرم و روندهای ساعتی تغییرات دما در این دوره ها می تواند کمک شایانی به مدیریت مصرف انرژی نماید.
    کلیدواژگان: فصول اقلیمی، فاصله، تحلیل خوشه ای، زاهدان
  • محمود حبیب اللهیان، محمدحسین رامشت صفحه 99
    با توچه به اینکه کشور ایران بر روی کمربند زلزله خیزی آلپ- هیمالیا قرار دارد و هر چند یک بار شاهد زلزله های مخرب ویرانگری همانند زلزله های بم و طارم و غیره در کشورمان می باشیم، بررسی وضعیت تکتونیک فعال (جنبا) که از جمله عوامل ایجاد و بروز زمین لغزه ها می باشند و ارزیابی تهدیدات و خسارات بروز این فعالیت ها در شهرها از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. رودخانه زاینده رود، بزرگترین و مهم ترین رودخانه دائمی ایران مرکزی است که سد عظیم زاینده رود بر روی آن بسته شده است. بخش علیای رودخانه، در شمال شرق استان چهارمحال و بختیاری و غرب استان اصفهان در مختصات طول جغرافیایی 50 درجه و 45 دقیقه تا 50 درجه و 53 دقیقه و 50 ثانیه شرقی و عرض جغرافیایی 32 درجه و 30 دقیقه و 45 ثانیه تا 32 درجه و 45 دقیقه و 50 ثانیه شمالی قرار گرفته است. این منطقه از نظر زمین شناسی بخشی از زون سنندج- سیرجان می باشد.
    در این پژوهش با استفاده از شاخص های مورفومتریک کمی از قبیل منحنی هیپسومتری (بی بعد) حوضه های آبریز، انتگرال منحنی هیپسومتری حوضه های آبریز، نسبت پهنای کف دره به ارتفاع دره، نسبت «V» عدم تقارن آبراهه ها، شاخص گرادیان- طول رودخانه، شاخص تقارن توپوگرافی عرضی، فعالیت های تکتونیکی و فرایشی در دره ی طولی رودخانه زاینده رود و دره های عرضی سواحل سمت راست و چپ در مساحتی حدود 400 کیلومتر مربع مطالعه گردید.
    بررسی این شاخص ها نشان داد که دره اصلی (طولی) رودخانه از نظر شاخص های «Vf» و نسبت «V» نیمه فعال، دره های فرعی در سواحل سمت راست و چپ رودخانه از لحاظ شاخص های «Vf» و نسبت «V» فعال و نیمه فعال قرار داشت. همچنین نتایج موید این مطلب بود که منطقه ی مورد مطالعه از لحاظ شاخص «SL» در وضعیت غیرفعال بوده و از نظر شاخص عدم تقارن آبراهه ها در حوضه های آبریز، سمت چپ رودخانه نسبت به سمت راست از فعالیت بیشتری برخوردار است.
    از لحاظ شاخص تقارن توپوگرافی عرضی «T»، شمال حوضه از جنوب آن فعال تر ولی درکل از شدت زیادی برخوردار نیست و از نظر دو شاخص منحنی بی بعد و انتگرال منحنی بی بعد، می توان گفت منطقه مورد مطالعه در حالت بالغ مایل به پیر قرار دارد. بررسی و ارزیابی نتایج حاصل از تلفیق کلیه شاخص ها، منطقه ی مورد مطالعه از لحاظ نئوتکونیک در وضعیت نیمه فعال متمایل به غیر فعال قرار دارد.
    کلیدواژگان: شاخص های مورفومتریک، تکتونیک جنبا، ژئومورفولوژی، زاینده رود
  • محمد باعقیده، علیرضا انتظاری، فاطمه علیمردانی صفحه 113
    به منظور تحلیل سینوپتیکی بارش های حوضه های اترک و گرگانرود در شمال شرق ایران، 39روز با بارش فراگیر بیش از 7 میلیمتر طی دوره ی آماری 6 ساله (2002-1997) انتخاب شد. سپس داده های شبکه بندی شده ی فشارسطح دریا مربوط به (65-10 عرض جغرافیایی و 80- 5 طول جغرافیایی) با تفکیک مکانی (2.5×2.5) درجه مربوط به روزهای منتخب بارشی از پایگاه داده (NCEP/NCAR) استخراج گردید.
    بر روی این داده ها تحلیل عاملی و سپس تحلیل خوشه بندی سلسله مرتبی با روش ادغام ward انجام گرفت بر اساس این تحلیل 6 الگوی سینوپتیکی در سطح زمین تشخیص داده شد که بر این اساس الگوهای مربوط به سطح 500 نیز استخراج گردید. نتایج نشان می دهد در الگوهای سطح زمین تقابل یک مرکز پر فشار نسبتا قوی در سمت غرب یا شمال غرب و مرکز کم فشاری در مرزهای شرقی ایران کاملا مشهود است. علاوه برآن الگوهای استخراج شده برای ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل در سطح 500 نیز همواره حضور یک فرود را بر روی ایران نشان می دهد.
    کلیدواژگان: تحلیل عاملی، الگوهای سینوپتیکی، خوشه بندی، حوضه های اترک و گرگان رود
  • عبدالرسول سلمان ماهینی، اکرم حسین نیا، سیدمحمود قاسم پوری، احد توسلی، مهری رضایی صفحه 125
    تغییرات رواناب به واسطه ی تغییر کاربری بسیار زیاد می باشد و اغلب مدل سازی، تنها راه بررسی احتمال بالقوه هر منطقه نسبت به سیلاب است. در این تحقیق از مدل L-THIA برای تخمین رواناب ناشی از تغییر کاربری در چالوس و نوشهر استفاده شد. L-THIA یک ابزار مناسب برای کمک به سنجش اثرات بالقوه ی تغییر کاربری بر رواناب سطحی و آلودگی آب می باشد.
    نتایج مدل سازی رواناب با استفاده از L-THIA افزایش 3/17 میلی متر رواناب متوسط سالانه تنها در طی 14 سال را نشان می دهد که بیان گر افزایش 79/9 میلیون متر مکعب رواناب طی این مدت در منطقه مورد مطالعه است. همان طور که از نتایج این تحقیق بر می آید مدل L-THIAقابلیت قابل قبولی در بیان نحوه ی اثر تغییر کاربری بر مقادیر حجم و عمق رواناب، طبق سناریوهای مختلف دارد.
    این مدل با ارایه ی نقشه ی توزیع مکانی رواناب، امکان شناسایی مناطق حادثه خیز، پهنه بندی سیل و همچنین مدیریت سیلاب را فراهم می سازد. اولویت بندی زیرحوضه های آبخیز برای انجام اقدامات کنترل سیلاب از دیگر قابلیت های روش مدل سازی به کار گرفته در این پژوهش می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: تغییر کاربری، مدل سازی رواناب، L، THIA، چالوس و نوشهر
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  • Dr. Seyed Ali Badri, Dr. Hassanali Faraji Sabokbar, Dr. Mojtaba Javedan, Dr. Hojjat-Allah Sharafi Page 1
    Introduction Sustainable development together with its complicated principles, have been globally discussed for years. The development process which started from1940, has reached to a dead end, therefore from 1980s environmental issues and development have been under a new perspective and special attention has been paid to them. This was the basis for sustainable theories. Acceptance of the definition for sustainable development from the viewpoint of UN Commissioning which a development is regarded sustainable if it enables to meet the present generation demands without neglecting the future potential for meeting the future generation demands, for the difficulty of determining the future generation needs and demands is faced with some problems. Meanwhile, concerning the sustainability measurement, there are no specific and fixed matrixes which enable us to predict them based on them the present and future condition. In most cases, based on the variable conditions of different countries and different historical eras, special matrixes have been used for measuring sustainability both at local and national level. However, since the late of 1990s, a kind of convergence has been formed for better recognition of different aspects and dimensions of sustainable development and since then the economical, social, political and environmental aspects, have been considered and regarded simultaneously in sustainability studies. The aim of the present study is identifying and designing the analysis process for multi-criteria decision making network in measurement of sustainable development and defining the links between the active and effective factors in this regard, these all have been attained through a careful study of the properties and characteristics, elements and of sustainable development indices in a rural district located in Fasa town ship area of Fars province by the use of Multi-criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM) and Analysis Network Process(ANP) and also the use of Vikor model. With respect to the main purpose of the present study i.e. the use of a proper model for ranking sustainability levels of rural areas, in this paper, with emphasis on sustainable development approach, Vikore model has been used for measuring the sustainability level of economical, social and environmental dimensions of Fasa town ship. For this purpose, firstly the frame work for organizing sustainable indices was presented and then through a brief introduction of the methods and models of measurement, based on the considered aims of the study, the characteristics and features of some of them are presented. Then by implementing the obtained results, the level of sustainable development is measured through paired comparison in Super Decision software and using Vikor model.Research MethodologyThe method used in this research is a combination of analytical and descriptive methods by using library and field systems. The rural analytical unit is comprised of rural households and experts, that by using Network Analysis Method and Borda technique, the data obtained from collecting the related questionnaires were processed by SPSS and Super decision Software. For sampling, class sampling method was used, in this method, in addition of the population criterion geographical dispersion of rural districts has also been considered. In this sampling method, firstly, specific codes were assigned to the rural households residing at each district. This process has been performed for all households residing at the selected districts. At the next stage, from each district, based on the required samples, the codes’ number was selected randomly. Then by referring to rural health care centers, with respect to the existing files of the rural households, the required numbers of samples were selected and finally the questionnaires were filled by snowball method. Discussion and ResultsThe results of using Vikor method reveals that this method as a multi- variable decision making method has some advantages, including multi- characteristics optimum theory or non- ranking methods.On such a basis and following calculating the weights by Using Network Analysis Technique and benefiting from Vikor model, the difference of sustainability rate in economical, social and environmental dimensions of rural districts of this township will be determined.Based on the performed calculations, in which S is the distance of I than the ideal solution (the best composition) and R is the distance of alternative from negative alternative solution (the worst composition) and when V>0.5, then Qi index has maximum agreement. when V<0.5 indicates maximum negative agreement, in total if V=0.5 it means equal group agreement. Ranking results shows that Jarghe village of Sheshdeh and Gare balagh based on the related indices with R=0.0764, S=0.292and Q=1 has the highest level of sustainability and Novbandan village with R=0.220, S=0.098 and Q=46 has dedicated itself the lowest level of sustainability and other villages are placed between these levels.ConclusionAlso the overall results indicate that Vikor method for solving the dispersive decision issues based on selecting the best alternative among the existing ones, according to ranking system, has a high capability. Regarding the actions, reactions, and interactions and the interlinks among different criteria and matrixes in different dimensions, for accurate assessment of sustainability, paying attention to different groups and dimensions of sustainability independent from each other and also using the public and professional views is necessary. In this case, the group decision making method by using Vikor method and questionnaire together with combining the obtained data in ANP model has a high efficiency
  • Dr. Feridoun Babaeiagdam, Dr. Hosseinebraheemzadeasmin Page 21
    IntroductionRapid expansion of cities, has led to emerging some problems in physical and spatial locations of them. Urban development in the last decades, caused fractal in urban land use which followed by conversion of agricultural lands to urban built up area. Nowadays, activities concerning the land use are the most important challenges of urban and environmental planners to make healthy locations. However, human activities have an important role as a threat for environment that has some negative impacts such as soil erosion, global warming and different pollutions. In small scale, humankind is the key issue on urban extensive land use changes. In most cases, human role in revolution of natural and agricultural structures has been seen which urban development in Ardabil has been followed from this trend. During the last 20 years, urban development within the urban region of Ardabil has been affected from tremendous increase in both population and physical area. Hence, one of the main issues in these areas is the growing trend of land use change to build up regions in urban fringes. This study will be performed to the aim of describing the decrease of the agricultural lands and increase of build up uses within the project horizon and with respect to the past trends. The remarkable thing in this research is combining the benefits of urban development with environmental values. As a result, in this study three land use types of urban region of Ardabil entitled agricultural, built up areas and water levels were analyzed using historical data, then future patterns of land use has been simulated.Research MethodologyIn this research, in order to determine the factors which affecting on the change of agricultural land use to urban areas, documentary method and interviews with the experts of some related organizations such as Housing and Urbanism organization, Province office, consulting engineers company of master and detailed plan and finally academic centers have been used. In order to simulate the future land use patterns in urban region of Ardebil, together with geographic information systems, the Clue-S model has been used. It should be mentioned that, the process of future land use pattern simulation has followed the hierarchical order, so the first step was defining and indicating the issue. Review and data collection followed as the second step. Conversion of data into the same format as vector, raster, and Ascii was the last step in the process of entering data into Clue-S model. Scenarios definition with respect to the present and future land uses situation, as well as a restriction model and ultimately defining the parameters for running model were provided. For explanation of relationships between land use and factors which affecting them, the cause-effect method was used. On the other hand, statistical analysis of data in SPSS needs to tabular format. Thus, the text files of research variables using Convertor sub model of Clue-S model have been converted to tabular format. For statistical analysis, logistic regression method was used. Running model and calculation of probability maps, was the final step in data processing of research. At each step of the implementation of this model, the spatial pattern of land use will be store in the target drive as Ascii files. GIS packages such as ArcView, ArcGISand Idrisi can be used to see the final outputs.Discussion and ResultsThe setting of converting each one of usages to another one is performed with respect to the relation between usages. These settings are specified in a conversion matrix. This matrix defines that land use types in present situation can be converted to another land use types or not. In this study, it is assumed that changing agricultural and arid lands to build up usages is possible and changing the recent usages and water levels is not possible.Spatial policies and restrictions can indicate areas where land use changes are restricted through policies or tenure status. The CLUE-S model has the possibility to indicate where these area restrictions are located. All files in the installation directory called regi*.* (e.g. region1.fil) will appear in the 'Area restriction' selection box. Active cells should have the value 0, no data cells should have the value -9999 and restricted area cells should have the value -9998.The rock unit, altitude, slope, slope direction, distance from city center, distance from roads, land types, population density and land price are the main driving forces in land use changes of urban region of Ardabil. These driving forces have been selected using stepwise regression by binary logistic method. After running model, it is possible to produce probability maps of land use types. Investigation and comparison of logistic regression results and future pattern of land use in two scenarios shows that in the first one, agricultural and arid lands will be decrease in low rate (less than 0.5 percent) until terminal age. While, the other lands will increase in that period. Therefore, built up areas will have nearly 1 percent of development. Justification for development of this land uses, is the probability of continuing investment in this part as fast as possible. While the increase rate of build up uses in the second scenario is 2% and decrease rate of agricultural and arid uses is about 0.8%. Matching this map with the situation of the existing town ships at the south and south west areas of Ardebil indicates the reliability of these places for the coming years.
  • Dr. Mojtaba Yamani, Siyamack Sharafi Page 35
    IntroductionRivers and streams are fully dynamic systems and their position, shape and other morphological characteristics are changing continually over the time. Due to the bank’s erosion and displacement of river banks, every year a great surface of agricultural lands, residential areas and bank facilities are being destructed. Different factors effect on the destruction of river floor and walls, including scour erosion of the banks, erosion and destruction due to entering agricultural drainage and so on. A group of factors such as waterway slope, flow rate, characteristics of bed materials, frequency and flood intensity determines the river morphology based on the time and spatial aspects. In this regard Leopold and Leman divided the rivers from morphological point of view in three groups of direct, meander and arterial. These patterns are also affected by these factors. Among these, meander pattern of the rivers as an effective parameter appears to be essential as a useful parameter to identify the hazards and the ways to conserve the existing resources and capital in different regions. This study investigated the lateral changes of the rivers that in the last years has threaten the communication path, agricultural lands and human structures besides the river banks, Therefore, due to the existence of bank erosion and morphological changes of the under study river, the aim is to study Hor rood River Geomorphology and its changes in a period of 52 years with a focuses on applied fields in different ranges of river engineering schemes. With this objective, identification of effective variables in bed instability for understanding the pattern of the river, changes trend, river path displacement in a long period of time and investigation of the factors and mechanism of bed changes is essential. And it was necessary that critical paths and parts of rivers have been detected concerning the bank erosion on the river. It was adapted by previous studies, calculated geometric parameters and field survey basis.Research MethodologyIn this research, the morphology of Hor Rood River has been studied through the spatial and temporal changes using the quantitative measurements. River plan and its geometric characteristics have been studied through the aerial photographs of military geography organization (1334), satellite images (IRS2007 and Aster2005) with a resolution of 5 and 15 meters respectively and Google earth's maps. To calculate the geometric parameters such as wavelength, sinuosity, radius and central angle of meanders, relative radius, length of the valley and etc in two mentioned period, river path has been drown in Arc GIS software and tangent circles have been drawn on meanders in the AutoCAD software. After these measurements, statistical comparison between the geometrical characteristics of the two time periods was obtained. By the use of graphical directions, the spatial variations of river path have been identified and compared in past and present. In order to better understand and describe of the river morphology and measured geometric parameters Hor rood River has been divided into four reaches concerning with cross sections and morphological characteristics in each reach.Discussion and ResultsFor classification and identification of hydraulic and hydro physic properties of rivers, it is necessary that some characteristics of river has been measured and calculated as quantitative geometric parameters. Geometric parameters such as, 1) wavelength, 2) the central angle of meander 3) meander radius 4) relative radius and 5) sinuosity of the river are some of the main quantitative measurable parameters. In this study, the geometric parameters of the river in 1955 and 2007 time period were measured, compared and analyzed.Central angle probe in the period of the study shows that three of reaches are developed meanders concerning with Kornis classification method and fourth reach changed from developed meander in 1955 to underdeveloped meander in 2007 due to the mountainous region of the reach. But the averages of central angle of this three meanders has increased in comparison with averages of central angle in 1955. Radius changes of meanders show that the radius of the meanders has decreased from 1955 to 2007 except in reach 1. Sinuosity of the river in the period of the study probe shows that reaches number 2 and 3 were meanders and reaches number 1 and 4 were sinuous rivers in 1955. But reach number 1 has changed to a meander reach since 2007. Changes in wavelength and the length of the river valley shows that average changes in the wavelength and valley length from 1955 to2007 has changed to more than twice and its reason can be depended on high power of the river in soft and alluvial bed than mountainous regions. And also the average amount of wavelength in reaches 2, 3 and 4 has decreased from 1955 to2007. The average amount of valley length in reach 3 from 1955 to2007 has increased. But the average amount of valley length in reaches 2 and 4 from 1955 to2007 has decreased. It means changing rate in these two reaches was lower. Changes in relative radius shows that study reaches of Hor rood River are located in each three kinds of bents and their relative radius from 1955 to2007 has decreased. Reach number 1, is located in confined region. Reaches number 2 and 3 are located in free zone and their relative radius dwindle in 2007 declares decreasing in freeness of bents and increasing pressure on bents but bents in reach 4 are located in confined zone. It means bents are confined in mountainous zone. Bed width comparison in 1955 and 2007 shows that bed width in reach 1 has doubled and in reach 4 there was a little change (about 1meter). There were significant changes in bed width of reaches 2 and 3.ConclusionProbe in geometric data of rivers and changes in their shape and regime can shows variation trend in future. Calculated parameters of Hor rood River shows its changes in time series in the study reaches. These parameters show that the most changes has been occurred in reach 1 due to its erodible bed, bed load increase, braided shape and low vegetation cover. Variations in parameters such bed width, number of meanders; wavelength and etc approve the trend of these changes. Although sediment and water discharge have been increased and slope decreased in reaches 2 and 3, there is lower changes. These changes have been occurred just in upstream of reach 2 and end of reach 3 in some bents which encompasses the meandering part of Hor Rood River. This reaches has been supposed to have the most changes due to sediment and water discharge increase and also slope decrease in reaches which are the most important factors in morphological changes in river. But evidences don’t show this issue. Investigations and data incorporation shows fairly strong earth topology in the path of the river is the main reason. Although there is proper condition for bank erosion and morphologic changes in reach 4, the changes are lower and results showed earth strength against erosion, straight path of river and topography effects are the major variables. Thus regarding with river geometric parameters, effective factors in changes of regime and Hor rood River morphology we can infer that changing in reaches 1 through 4 has been decreased but sediment and water discharge have been increased. Overall results show there is no direct relationship between hydrologic factors and morphologic changes and the most effective parameter in morphologic changes and bank erosion of the studied river is river bed and bank material.
  • Dr. Mehdi Pourtaheri, Dr. Mohammad Hossien Papoli, Alireza Fallahi Page 49
    IntroductionIn the recent years, agricultural cooperatives have played an important role in rural development through development of agriculture. Researchers are of the opinion that under normal circumstance agricultural cooperatives in the shape of fishing, animal husbandry, aviculture, forestry, beekeeping, flower and plant, play significant role in the provision of services that enhance agricultural development. They described agricultural cooperatives as a medium through which services like provision of farm input, farm implements, farm mechanization, agricultural loans, agricultural extension, members education, marketing of farm products and other economic activities and services rendered to members. Regular and optimal performance of these roles will accelerate the transformation of agriculture and rural economic development. So it seems that the agricultural cooperatives are considered to be the most important organizations that pay attention and try to support the rural development in general and the agricultural development in special through the activities and services achieved for the sake of farmers. Agricultural cooperatives have contributed greatly to the development of modern national and systematized agricultural production-base, helped enhance self-sufficiency of major staple foods, and strengthened farmers’ household economy by facilitating market access and competitiveness, adapting their operations to agricultural technological innovations and encouraging democratic decision-making processes, leadership development and education. In the recent years, Lorestan province, especially Khoramabad has witnessed a remarkable development of agricultural cooperatives in rural areas. Although the development of agricultural cooperatives have been attractive in this township, but there is no comprehensive assessment of creating the agricultural cooperatives for achievement of goals of rural development. So, the overall purpose of the study is to investigate whether cooperatives have contributed to positive change in the economic, social and environmental conditions among the two groups of cooperatives managers and members. Research MethodologyThis research is applied-developing in scope and the methodology is descriptive-analytical. The data were collected among the two groups of cooperatives managers (15 managers) and members (123 members) by applying systematic random sampling technique. The scale was developed with 24 items for members and 18 items for cooperatives managers on a 3-point scale. Questions were closed and mainly focused on the economic, social and environmental dimensions, accordingly to the research goals. The selection of these items was based on previous researches and literature review. Reliability based on Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the final scale resulted in a robust value (0.8).Data from questionnaires analyzed by use of One-sample T-test, in SPSS software. Discussion and ResultsCooperatives are defined as “an autonomous association of persons who unite voluntarily to meet their common economic and social needs and aspiration through a jointly owned and democratically controlled enterprise. Poverty, infrastructural backlog and illiteracy are amongst the most serious factors that inhibit growth of cooperatives in Iran. The present socio-economic challenges facing the poor, particularly in rural areas, encourage people to form cooperatives even if there is no demand for their produce in the marketplace. An agricultural cooperative is considered as one of the important economic and social organizations in rural societies. It plays an important role in the agricultural development and also has a significant role of rural development and poverty reduction as well. Perhaps the most striking finding of this research is the corroboration of one of the major inferences drawn from the qualitative method concerning the importance of agricultural cooperatives in rural development by the statistical results. The results of the one-sample t-test showed that kind of agricultural cooperatives are strongly influenced in rural areas, but the social aspect of agricultural cooperatives had the largest impacts on members. Thus confirming existent literature, and adding new information at the same time, it has been found that social impacts are superior to economic and environmental impacts from view point of members and cooperatives managers. The findings of this study suggest that agricultural cooperatives play a vital role in the socio-economic development of poor rural villages. Agricultural Cooperatives create self-employment and sometimes also temporary employment. In this regards it seems that agricultural cooperatives contribute to members livelihoods by providing some income and food for the families, Also provide space and time for socialization. So, agricultural Cooperatives are depicted as the engines of employment creation, poverty reduction and income generation at rural areas. Although, the study reveals that agricultural cooperatives are a profitable venture in the study area but it appear opportunities still exist for increasing income if the constraints identified by the members and cooperative managers are addressed. ConclusionThe scope of this study was relatively small (fifteen cooperatives) and local (located in the rural areas in the Khoramabad in Lorestan province) and the results therefore are based on a particular defined study area. The results show that agricultural cooperatives have influenced positively on the socio-economic and environmental conditions in rural communities. These results further show that with government’s commitment to working with cooperatives, they can yield greater returns for the people, the government and the nation as a whole. Some of the contributions that different kinds of agricultural cooperatives have created employment creation, income generation, as well as better socio-economic living conditions among members. Agricultural cooperatives are therefore a suitable alternative to eradicate poverty in the rural areas. The results show that from view point of members, agricultural cooperatives are important organizations for sustaining food security and rural development but they have constraints and limitations in leadership and management. The major constraints identified by the members and managers include; inadequate capital, lack of access to credit facilities and low education. The agricultural cooperatives have failed to attract new members. Majority of cooperatives have 7 or 8 members that are a constraint on the base of cooperative’s articles of association. There is significant difference between view point of members and managers about economic, social and environmental impacts of agricultural cooperatives. It seems that the members are satisfied more than cooperatives managers.
  • Dr. Mehdi Azhdari Moghadam, Dr. Mahmood Khosravi, Hossein Hosseinpour Niknam, Ehsan Jafari Nodooshan Page 61
    IntroductionDrought is a complicated phenomenon that arises from lack of rain and increasing of temperature. It may happen in all climates. Unlike flood, finding the beginning, duration and ending of drought is so difficult. It may last for weeks and months to recognize that really the drought has happened or not? Although drought happens fewer than other phenomenon in comparing with other natural disasters, but has dedicated the first rank from the view point of people’s life and financial damages. Zahedan as the capital city of Sistan and Baluchestan province has been located in the southeast of Iran. This province is located in a hot and dry region and has a bad situation from the view point of natural resources. Lack of rain together with time and spatial dispersion from one hand and heavy evaporation on the other hand are the main reasons of shortage of water resources in this area. Researches show that Zahedan has the third rank of drought in Iran with 43% of frequency.Research MethodologyThis research uses three variables including precipitation, climate indices and SPI in order to forecast drought. The entire 1951-2007 precipitation data have been gathered from synoptic station of Zahedan dependent on weather organization. These data did not have many gaps. Different statistical analysis such as spearman and runs tests applied on data for checking independency, trend and randomness. Climate indices gathered from NOAA website as second group of input variables. These indices were SOI, PNA, MEI, Nino1+2, Nino3, Nino3.4, QBO, SW Monsoon, TNA, TNI, TSA, WHWP, EPO, BEST, AMO, AMM, NAO and WP. Finally, SPI index, constituted the third input variable as well as the output one. Drought forecasting performed on the base of autumn average of SPI index. For this aim, models have been constructed using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. So, subtractive clustering method has been used for finding neuro-fuzzy rules and optimizing parameters of membership functions. The Sugeno system with Gaussian membership function applied as fuzzy inference system. Hybrid learning algorithm with epoch of 100 also applied for training of model.Discussion and ResultsIn order to forecast autumn drought, the average of monthly SPI in October, November and December in one month scale (SPI-1) in all years of statistical periods was calculated and considered as the predictable parameter or the same similar outcomes. The length of statistical period is totally 56 years (1952-2007), in which 70% of this period (equal to 39 years) was used for training and the remaining 30% of the remaining period was used for evaluation of the constructed models. Input parameters as mentioned before were climate indices, precipitation and previous time series of standardized precipitation index (SPI).The models were constructed in 4 groups, that each group uses a three months time interval of time series of input variables, including a. Oct-Nov-Dec, b. Sep-Oct-Nov, c. Aug-Sep-Oct and d. Jul-Aug-Sep as input variables time series(with time delays of 0,1,2 and 3 months respectively).For evaluation of constructed models, different standards such as correlation coefficient (CORR), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used. The obtained results showed that each of input variables in one of the said three months intervals has a proper capability for predicting autumn drought. Among the studied 3 months time intervals, the variables which constructed models had minimum error and their correlation coefficients were meaningful at 0.99%, have been selected and presented in the following table. ConclusionIn the current study, the function of climatic indices, precipitation and pervious amount of SPI drought index were evaluated for predicting autumn drought in Zahedan. For this purpose, the amount of three months i.e. October, November and December of SPI index was selected as the output variable. Then each of mentioned input variables entered into models with lag times of 0, 1, 2 and 3 month (Oct-Nov-Dec, Sep-Oct-Nov, Aug-Sep-Oct, and Jul-Aug-Sep alternatively). The models have been developed using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method and finally the obtained results were evaluated.Among the input climatic indices, Nino3 in lag time of 0, SOI in lag time of 2 and AMO in lag time of 1 and 3months had the best results. Precipitation, as the other input variable, had the best results in lag time of 0 and 1. Finally, previous time series of SPI had suitable results just in lag time of 1, for predicting autumn drought.
  • Dr. Manochehr. Farajzadeh Asl, Ali. Bahooshi Page 73
    Introduction Road accident is one of the most important causes of mortality in the world and in Iran. About 24000 people lose their life in road accidents. Several environmental factors have great influences on road accidents that the share of climatic factors such as sliding areas, snow, fog and freezing is more. Different researchers have studied the relation between climatic conditions and road accidents and found significant relations between road accidents and climatic parameters. Noroooz holiday in Iran starts from 21 march and continues for about two weeks. In this period, travel of people increases and consequently increases the road accidents. This study tries to analyze and study the effect of climatic factors on 1756 deathly accidents occurred during the 20-days of Norooz holiday in 2008 in the roads with heavy traffic. Research MethodologyTwo different data sets were used in this study including the accident data obtained from Police database for the under study period, the statistics showed that during this time, 1756 deathly accident occurred in the main roads of Iran. The collected data covers province name, police station name, day and hour of accident occurrence and the likes. The second data set; include the data of 140 meteorology stations for all climatic parameters such as precipitation, temperature, humidity and so on. Then the distance of accident points based on km were specified on the axes. Also meteorology data for all the stations after being controlled and prepared were entered in to GIS soft ware. Discussion and ResultsThe analysis of climatic conditions in this period reveals that in the 25th, 26th and 29th of Iranian month of Esfand (15, 16 and 19 March) and also 8th, 10th and 14th of Iranian month of Farvardin (28 and 30 March and 3 April) adverse climatic conditions were dominated in most parts of Iran. The analysis of the occurred accidents showed that most of them happened in the first 20Km from the origin between 15 o’clock up to 18 o’clock of local time. In the next step, with respect to the frequency of accident in different days, it was cleared that the number of accidents in the days of 29th Iranian month of Esfand (20 March) and 8th, 9th, 13th and 14th of Iranian month of Farvardin (28 and 29 March 3 and 6 April) has significantly increased. Therefore, it can be concluded that this increase, except for the days that the number of journeys were increased, was mainly due to the bad climatic conditions in the country.Conclusion The result of this study indicates that there is a significant relation between climatic conditions and road accidents in Iran especially during travelling by privet cars. The ability of GIS for analyzing the spatial aspects of accidents with combining descriptive data helps to the evaluation of any point of the country for risk analysis evaluation. The method used in this study can be used in other similar studies and it is clear that the accurate analysis of road accidents in Iran requires a powerful online database in order to decrease mortality rate caused by road accidents.
  • Dr. Hamid Nazaripour, Dr. Rashid. Saieed Abadi Page 87
    IntroductionChangeability is one of the characteristics of climatology, and natural seasons unlike the calendar seasons are variable. Therefore, natural seasons have time- spatial changes. These changes are recognizable throughout Iran. Some of natural seasons such as winter and spring are not seen in some areas of Iran, and other seasons like summer are dominant in Iran for a long time. Therefore, summer or winter does not simultaneously occur all over the land as a climatic period. While, certain climatic seasons are limited to small parts, others prevail in land wide. So, distinguishing climatic periods in a region, with regard to climate and surveying the related changing systems are considered as desirable strategy for local and national planning. Also the present research tries to provide a strategy for planning and management of energy in this part of Iran through recognizing the climatic periods of Zahedan. Research and MethodologyFor specifying the climatic seasons of Zahedan, thermal indices from Zahedan synoptic station have been used. These thermal indices including the dry and wet temperatures measured at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21GMT Time, mean dry and wet temperature, maximum and minimum temperature and mean temperatures on a daily scale, which have been obtained from a 35 years period(1970-2004)from Sistan and Baluchestan Provincial Department of Meteorology. First, by using a MATLAB Software, a database, with matrix dimensions 12784*24 was developed, in which, the lines and columns representing, time (12784 day) and climatic elements, respectively. So, after computing the long-term daily mean for each climatic element, a new 365*21 matrix was developed and standardized. The matrix was used as a reference basis for discerning climatic Seasons or thermal types of climate at Zahedan region. The similarity rate of days was computed on the basis of a Euclidean distance and then the similar days were linked by applying the Ward method. The rational numbers of clusters were also assessed by ANOVA test. Discussion and ResultsThe results obtained from this research show that 4 climatic seasons which are prevalent at Zahedan region are distinctively different from those assessed as per the formal calendar. They comprise of 4 distinctive climatic seasons:1- Cold season. 2- Temperate season. 3-Warm season and 4- very warm season. The cold season begins from mid January, prevailing up to mid April. Then, the temperate begins, continuing up to early June. The very warm after that starts continuing up to early October. Another warm season appears after the very warm season, lasting up to mid December. Then, another appearance of the temperate sets up, entailing a cold starts. So, the temperate is a period transient through the warm into the cold and vice versa, with two different appearances in the year. Similarly, the warm is a period transient to the very warm, also with two appearances. ConclusionThe cold seasons or the climatic winter at Zahedan region commences and also ends up later than the calendar winter. This season is not so cold and lasts about 3 months. The temperate season become prevalent before and after the cold and indicating winter tardiness and late commence of summer. In the cold and temperate seasons, temperature changes are extreme during a day. Similarly, the warm also appears before and after the very warm season and then, the temperate climatic season's sets up as a start of the cold climatic seasons, while the warm and very warm climatic seasons are of mild round-the-clock temperature changes.
  • Mahmood. Habibolahian, Dr. Mohammad Hosein. Ramesht Page 99
    IntroductionGiven that Iran is located on the Seismicity belt of Alps-Himalaya and since we occasionally have seen huge and destructive earthquakes such as Bam and Tarom, the investigation and study of active tectonic and assessment of threat and risk of such damages in big cities are very important. Zayandehroud River, is known as the greatest and most famous permanent river of the Center of Iran on which the Zayandehroud dam has been established. Upper part of the river is placed at north east of Chaharmahal o Bakhtiyari province and east of Isfahan province att coordinates of geograhocal longitude of 50◦, 45׳ and up to east 50◦, 53׳ and 50 ׳׳ and geographical latitude 32◦, 30 ׳ and 45׳׳ up to north 32◦, 45׳ and 50 ׳׳. This area is part of Sanandaj- Sirjan geological zone. Research and MethodologyIn this research, the erosion and tectonic activities in longitudinal and transversal valleys of Zayandehroud have been investigated in an area of about 400 km2 using quantitative morphometric indicators, such as Hypsometric curve, Integral of Watershed hypsometric curve, Ratio of width of valley bed to valley elevation, V ratio, river length- gradian in den and topography balance in den. Discussion and ResultsAn investigation of these indicators showed that the main valley (longitudinal) of the river was classified as semi-active based on Vf and V ratio indicators. Also according to Vf and V ratio, secondary valleys in the right and left shores of the river had active and semi-active status. Also, results indicated that the studied area was settled in non-active status based on SL indicators, and also according to dis-balance index, left side of the river was more active than the right side. Results showed that for purposes of topography balance (T), north of basin is more active than the south of the basin with low severity. Study area has an adult and old trend according to hypsometric and integral indicators. ConclusionGeneral assessment from the integration of indicators indicated that the studied area was settled in semi-active to non-active position from neotectonic aspect.
  • Dr. Mohammad Baaghideh, Dr.Alireza Entezari, Fateme Alimardani Page 113
    IntroductionSynoptic climatology term was used for the first time in U.S.A Air force at 1940s decade. Their goal of this field is to analyze the previous frequencies of climatic components and forecast the atmospheric condition based on the computations. Synoptic climatology provides useful tools for the researchers in the fields of atmosphere, environment and geography sciences and at the present it is the most rapid way to recognize the relationship between environmental processes and atmospheric cycles. today, the study of relevant different phenomenon of the climate including draughts, severe rainfalls, pollution and storms and. .. by the use of synoptic methods presents a more acceptable results and more reliable predictions. Aatrak and Gorganrood are the most important rivers in northeastern part of Iran and Caspian Sea catchment area. Wide farmlands and numerous cities and towns with considerable population and also different water structures including bridges and dams are located in this area and being affected by the discharge fluctuations. Since the type and rate of rainfalls has an important and determinant role on the catchment area reactions, knowing the dominant Synoptic patterns may be efficient to forecast pervasive rainfalls or heavy rain falls flood discharge and can be considered and used in different economical activities and planning particularly agriculture, transportation, tourism and. .. Research MethodologyThis research from objective view is of applied research and is of descriptive-analytical method. The main data were obtained from National Centre of Environmental predictions (NCEP/NCAR) data base.. In this research, Environment to Circulation technique is used as the initial principle. It means that circulatory patterns shall provide the criteria which are determined based on the environmental variables. In Synoptic analyses, a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods (using maps and numerical data together) have been used.The processes of classifying and arranging data are performed by the Excel software and also the data analysis process by the use of descriptive and inferential statistic methods, like the factor analysis and clustering have been performed by SPSS software.Discussion and ResultsIn this research, environment to circulation synoptic method has been used in the main initial principle. Among the available stations, Five Synoptic stations were selected with suitable dispersion through analyzing the rainfall data, 39 days with more than 7mm of rainfall which were common in all the stations have been selected as pervasive rainy days. This research has been performed by using daily data of sea level pressure (SLP) which were obtained at the area of 12.5◦ up to 60◦ north latitude degree and 5◦ up to 80◦ of east longitude degree with spatial resolution of 2.5 arch degrees were obtained from National Centre of Environmental Predictions (NCEP/NCAR). For each day a 21* 30 matrix was formed and the data of each matrix (each day one matrix) is reformed by the Excel software in to a row, from left to right and 39 rows together formed a new matrix with dimension 630* 39.The pressure data for the rainy days was summarized by factor analysis technique. After deriving the main factors, factor scores were used in clustering as the main data. The clustering technique classifies all the observations based on their distance, so the similar observations are combined together and more similar observation are combined in the next step. In this research, applied hierarchical cluster analysis by using Ward linkage method in SPSS soft ware was applied on factor scores. Finally the main groups have been formed regarding Environment to circulation curves and based on dendrograms curve of earth surface data, 6 synoptic patterns were derived.ConclusionThe obtained results from analyzing the derived patterns related to earth surface and upper levels of atmosphere are summarized as follows:Regarding to the derived patterns of sea level maps, the existence of a relatively high pressure center in the west or northwest parts of Iran and a low pressure center was identified in east of Iran for the rainy days. The contact of the centers together (which are considered as the transitive systems based on the type) may be efficient to provide the area rainfall mechanisms beside to increase the pressure gradient.The role of the Siberian high pressure decreasing the temperature and increasing the pressure gradient is absolutely obvious for two sea level patterns. Also the north eastern mountains of Iran were efficient to improve the high pressure locally on earth but generally the existence of a low pressure in eastern part of Iran or being located between two low pressure and high pressure center as the under study area was the most important earth surface pattern for rainfalls.The under study area was located in front of or under a trough based on the derived patterns in 500hp level maps in most rainy days which it makes instable conditions and it also provides ascent factor. Furthermore, the existence of a trough on north of Iran was observed in 500 hp level patterns and the main differences are more correlated with the trough axis deviation and also related to its depth.
  • Dr. Abdolrassoul Salman Mahiny, Akram Hosseinnia, Seyed Mahmood Ghasempoori, Ahad Tavasoli, Mehri Rezayi Page 125
    IntroductionRunoff changes is high due to change in land use and often making model is the only way to evaluate the potential of each area to flood. For simulating of watershed land use change effects, many water quality and hydrology models is developed which usually are integrated with a GIS. A model of environmental non-point source watershed area (ANSWERS), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), agricultural non-point sources (AGNPS), protecting the natural environment of the United States (NRCS) and long-term hydrology impact assessment (L-THIA) model are example of this models.This models can be used for impact assessment of land use management and other changes on hydrology and water quality. In this study L-THIA model was used for estimating runoff due to change in land use in Chaloos and Noshahr. This model is a good tool for potential impact assessment of land use change on surface runoff and water pollution and has been developed as accessible and rapid tools for using in long –time impact assessment of land use change. The core of this model based on curve number (CN) which is widely used for estimating the flow behavior in an urban watershed. Using CN equation in the L-THIA is a simple alternative for hydrology complex model that require a lot of data which often are not accessible for more areas. Failure to observe the river privacy and the removing excess sand from the river bottom, upward change in forest land use under the pretext of industrial development in Noshahr and Chaloos cities in addition to disturbance in the upstream Watersheds as result fluctuation in river input, remind us the possibility of flood risk in heavy rainfall. Besides this issues, lack of proper urban development plan and uncontrolled heterogeneous construction in addition to making ugly face of the city, create a lot of costs for local people.For instance the costs caused by traffic and the fertile land further degradation and increased pressure on the environment can be named. On this study, long-term effects of land use change and urban development on hydrology conditions has been studied in Noshahr and Chaloos region.Research Methodology L-THIA model are estimates the daily runoff for different amounts of CN by using daily rainfall data and the amount of CN afterward total values of daily data were sum and the model estimated the annual runoff which shall be considered as the model output. An analysis assessment of the L-THIA can be used with current and past or proposed land use layers. The Results estimate the effect of current and past or proposed future of land use change on the amount of generated runoff. Land use maps for the period of study was extracted from the classification of satellite images, the class of hydrological groups and soil map created from land resources and suitability maps.Discussion and Results Classification of satellite images showed that the highest percentage of change is related to residential landuse. The town have increased from 40.14 in 1987 to 38.32 square kilometers in 2001, Increased 125 percent in residential area lead to decrease in other landuse. The greatest decrease with 48.36 refer to river privacy and the lowest decrease related to forest (82.3- levels) changes Percentage in landuses like agricultural, garden and woodland and bareland respectively is 42.7-, 49.21- 23.23 Conclusion L-THIA presents the result of runoff model as raster map of depth and runoff volume, investigation the runoff depth map showed increased 17. 3 mm height of the runoff in the studied basin in the period 1987-2001. Runoff volume Map is calculated on cubic feet in each cell. Based on cell size (28 mm), runoff volume is increased about 8. 145 cubic meters per cell, including 566. 31 km watershed area, increased total runoff volume produced in this period will be about 9. 7 9 million cubic meters.As a result of this research land use changes during the studied period (2001-1987) lead to increase 125 percent in residential area. Spatial growth of urban due to growth population is natural, but this development can be a threat while reduce river privacy with 36.48% and the gardens and tree filled with 23.23%.The results of the L-THIA model in Noshahr and Chaloos cities with regard to the strong trend of land use change during the study period, with dominance of change in river privacy, tree field and gardens to residential land use increased 1. 23 mm average depth of runoff equivalent to 707. 89 thousand cubic meters per year.Growing residential areas and wasteland along the decrease in tree field, gardens and agricultural areas in the short term, will be necessary the proper scientific management and control, as well as observance of sustainable development in the areas. On the other hand it is important to note that using the same rain fall data in model performance for watershed in 1987 and 2001 clearly indicate the land use role in runoff variation after the remove of rainfall fluctuation. Should be note that the result of L-THIA doesn’t predict the event in the certain year but crate a general insight to long term hydrology effect due to different land use scenario.Using Model for managers and planners provides the opportunity to control and manage the event before incidence. According to result L-THIA model have acceptable ability to expression of land use change impact on volume and depth of runoff according to different scenario. this model with providing runoff spatial distribution map create the possibility of identification the point with high disaster risk and flood zones as well as flood management. Priority of watershed sub basins for control flood is another capability of this method furthermore the results illustrates acceptable performance of L-THIA in management and planning of land use and runoff control in studied area. While the use of this model for other areas with different topographic and climatic characteristics of is recommended, with regard to some limitation in model result it is important to considered to great number not to the exact amount of them.