فصلنامه تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی
پیاپی 19 (زمستان 1389)

This article, applying a descriptive analytical research method, demonstrates Iran’s geopolitical challenges in entering the international natural gas and LNG market. The article takes a quick but necessary look at the 2030 outlook for the role of natural gas in energy economics. It then investigates the impasses and problems faced by Iran, as the holder of the world’s second largest natural gas reserves, in becoming the predominant supplier, or at least finding and maintaining a stable position in the market, in the Indian subcontinent, China, Persian Gulf, Japan, and South Korea. From this point of view, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s twenty-year efforts to gain access to the Indian subcontinent market, which have been put into operation through the Peace Pipeline project, could have been pursued through a less focal and more geopolitical project. Moreover, on the basis of the findings of this study, the strategy of the decision makers in Tehran to find a position in the CNG market in South Korea, Japan, and China faces some prolonged challenges. Likewise, the Persian Gulf market, as lively and dynamic as it is, is not considered to be a strategic market. However, the European market provides more reliable indicators of a strategic, stable, and expanding market. Nonetheless, Iran up until 2010 is still one of the natural gas importers, and, before planning for its access to the target market, must become one of the natural gas exporter countries.

The regionalization and study of geographical extent of precipitation pattern is important because of its expanded impact with different parts activity of agriculture. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions that known as the principal components analysis, is one of the most efficient ways to extract information from large data sets. The advantage of EOF analysis is that it provides a compact description of the spatial and temporal variability of data series in terms of orthogonal functions, or statistical "models". The efficiency of EOF analysis in the regionalization of autumn precipitation (third month: October, November, December) of half the west of Iran (44-49ْ E and 30-40ْ N) has been evaluated, that its has variety of climatologically and geographical conditions and contains 11 provinces of country. The basis of this research, eight of the first EOF, which account for 90. 74 % of total variance in the precipitation data, were kept and used for the regionalization of precipitation regions. The result of this survey show that because of component each loadings become high with part of the region that its has more homogeneous precipitation conditions, six of the first EOFs could be used as the regional time series of autumn precipitation in the part of middle zagros (Ilam, Lorestan, Kermanshah (exceptionally patagh station), hamedan provinces and mozaffarabad Ghor and Divandarreh stations from kordestan and dehe-Jalal station from Zanjan), large part of the Zanjan province and half the south of Azarbayejan region, Khuzestan province, important part of the Azarbayejan region, Gilan province (exceptionally Lahijan and Koomaleh stations) and Ardebil province respectively. Because of different of autumn precipitation between Lahijan and Koomoleh stations and the other stations of Gilan province, loadings EOF-7 and EOF-8 components have showed high for this two regions in the eastern of Gilan province. The results show that the precipitation regions have been separated desirably that they have proportiated with climatological conditions that they have been dominated on the rigions and in the other done climatological researches have been confirmed.

In this paper, we consider the relation between land cover changes and construction and Inauguration of the Taleghan dam by using Remote sensing techniques. This research implemented by production land cover maps from satellite imagery at 20 years period, with 3 section; before, simultaneous and after making dam in 1366,1381 and 1386 respectively. Thus, consideration of changes in 3 maps implemented by using past classification method and used LQ statistical index for consideration of land cover pattern changes. Result shows that, in 20 year period, pasture's area was stable but its quality was become short due to alteration between pasture and cultivation and grazing land. Also, areas with dry farming and irrigation lands have an oscillation because of migration and renewed return. In this period, built-up areas increased greatly because of constructing villa and promenade in around of the dam. Changes in land use spatial pattern show that maximum alterations, happened in sub-basins around dam's lake and Major River.

Surface runoff drainage is one of the management problems in Rasht City. Also, one of the urban flood factors is drainage channel obstruction through water level rising. The purpose of presented study is to investigate the probability of drainage channels obstruction and site selecting new outlets along Goharrood and Siahrood rivers. So, the rivers bed of Goharrood and Siahrood and their bank terrains were simulated by using HEC-GeoRAs extension and digital map (scale: 1000). Pick discharges with different return periods were estimated by using stochastic analysis. Then, river hydraulic behavior was simulated by using HEC-RAS model. Finally, unsuitable and suitable sites for runoff drainage were identified.

According to the IPCC report, due to increasing greenhouse gases, climate change and global warming is occurring. There are many methods for future climate change modeling and assessment. One of the most important statistical methods is generating daily weather data from General Circulation Models (GCM outputs under different emission scenarios using Weather Generator (WG) techniques. To use the GCM outputs (which have small spatial resolution) on the local scale, it is necessary to downscale GCM's outputs by either dynamical or statistical methods. Because of heavy computational requirements of dynamically downscaling, some efforts have been done to prepare methods with less computational requirements. Weather Generators technique is one of these methods that is capable to extended weather station data to the future by using WG scenarios. In this paper capability of LARS-WG model in simulation of meteorological data including maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and radiation in 3 synoptic stations of Golestan Province including Gorgan, Gonbad Kavous and marave tappeh and 3 climatology stations, including Bandar-e torkaman, kalaleh and Agh Togheh has been studied in the period of 1993-2007. By comparing observed data and generated data, we found that the greatest error has been found in radiation data. Accuracy of the model in simulation of minimum and maximum temperatures is statistically accepted. The greatest errors of radiation, rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were found in gorgan with 0. 6 hr, kalaleh with 6. 1 mm, maraveh tapeh with 0. 5 ْC and agh togheh with 0. 4 ْC, respectively. Finally, it is highly recommended that LARS-WG could be used as a reliable tool for future climate assessment over Golestan province.

Rural developments are systems that have environmental-ecological and economic elements. The elements change to cause transformation of other elements and ultimately whole system. Some these transformations are inner but other some are external. For example: making policy in community, area and national levels. Asaloyeh specific economical region in the Bosher state one of regions that were done great industrial investment in less than ten year. This investment not only have accelerated industrialization process and technological improvement but also to supplied transformation contexts of rural settlements in several dimensions ecology, social-cultural, economical and physical-spatial. However some of transformations are positive but other some have impressed undesirability to villages. Research conclusions’ have displayed that change and transformation is inevitable into rural settlement landscape but this change and transformation must be done truly and intellectual. These issue have required to system that to determined truly what changes range to be will useful for landscape and what changes range is unsuitable.

Today, many planners and develop policy makers notice, tourism as a main element of sustainable development. They try by recognition of areas tourism development capability and dissolve its problems to have more earnings in this section. In this context, the coastal towns of Mazandaran is the most important tourist destination that with a logical and appropriate planning and recognition of its tourism potencies and limitations has a significant Role in these areas development, and lets to national development and diversify of national economy. For this purpose the paper first with a survey questionnaire of Fereidoonkenar ten specialists and experts in urban affairs and listing affective internal and external factors in tourism development or undevelopment by (SWOT), model. Fereidoonkenar strategic assessment of tourism development capability was discussed. After this with weighting and prioritization of mentioned factors, optimal strategies were presented. Analysis on research shows that for emphasizing on decrease of the study areas vulnerability, the defensive strategies (WT) should be the priority in this areas tourism development programs.