فصلنامه تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی
پیاپی 42 (پاییز 1395)

In this study is predicted the groundwater level of Sharif Abad catchment using some artificial intelligence models. For this purpose used of monthly groundwater levels for modeling in the three observed wells located in the Sharif Abad watershed of Qom. To compare the results of the hybrid model of wavelet analysis-neural network (WNN), genetic programming (GP) multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), two criteria of root mean squared error (RMSE) and nash-sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) is used. The results of the study indicated that the WNN models provide more accurate monthly groundwater level predicted in compared to the ANN, GP and MLR models so the nash-sutcliffe coefficient in WANN model for piezometers 1, 2 and 3 are 0.98, 0.98 and 0.95, respectively.

Temperature alteration plays special role as one of the most basic climate elements. So inspection of temperature alteration and anticipation has scientific- applied magnitude. In this study inspection of several cases of statistical characteristics of monthly­ average, maximum and minimum temperature and illumination of their alteration method­, temperatures predictability by ANFIS is evaluated­. Applied data is over 288 months during 24 years of statistical period since January of 1987 until December of 2010 through synoptic stations of Pars Abad, Ardebil and Khalkhal. According to equations of data lineal process­, lineal process of temperatures through all of the stations is positive and­ additive­. Lineal process gradient in minimum temperature is more than other­ maximum and average temperature. Less amplitude more variance and standard aviation and­­ data ­predictability is more. According to present article adaptive Neuro – fuzzy inference system mostly has acceptable function through anticipation of monthly minimum, maximum and average temperature in the stations of Ardebil province.

An AO is an example of teleconnection pattern in the northern hemisphere’s winter. In this study, the effect of AO on the monthly minimum temperatures in the North-East region of Iran is investigated. The required statistics, including statistics monthly minimum temperatures for 17 synoptic stations of the under study area was provided from Iran Meteorological Organization’s (IRMO). Pearson correlation analysis as the main method used in this study Show an inverse relationship between minimum temperatures and most selected stations and AO index.The results of this study shows that there is a significant relationship between the AO teleconnection pattern and minimum temperatures of north-east of Iran during the cold season of the year. This shows decrease of temperature in positive phase of the AO and rise of temperature is negative phase. In terms of time correlation coefficients were calculated showed a significant negative correlation between the temperature of stations and the AO Among the studied stations, the relationship between the minimum and average monthly temperatures in Birjand and Bojnoord station more than other stations, affected by the AO pattern, has been fluctuated and significant correlation coefficients between the minimum and average temperature of Birjand and Bojnoord Stations with AO has been calculated. The effect of Arctic oscillation on mean temperature of the studied area, north-east of Iran, during the three months, January to march, and ,two months, January to February, is very distinctive against any other periods of time.

This study aimed to evaluate the climatic conditions for the establishment of Borujerd city in the design of buildings and streets of the city with an emphasis on radiant energy, an attempt to reduce problems related to cold climate is that in order to achieve this goal of data synoptic station in the city of Boroujerd a period of 23 years, including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and other parameters as maximum, minimum and average is used. This study is cross-sectional study and extensive research studies of all documents related to the concept and the; and the method of data collection in the expression of the status quo and in Analysis of the types of library issues Bamtalh documents, and field research. The main tools of analysis in this study include Oleg bioclimatic models, Gioni and computational methods is the law of cosines In this respect, first using data from synoptic weather station borujerd in chart eco building and open spaces and drawing on its,thresholds and thermal requirements of the building inside and outside and then priorities for the design and construction of climate , urban streets is determined;The results showed that , best orientation for settlement building in Borujerd in order to optimize the energy consumption is south- north after15 west.and best orientation for streets plan in Borujerd according the AS interaction is toward southwest- northeast and after that 60 west in order to avoid permanent ice and snow.

Guidance plan does with economic, structure, social and cultural attitude in Iran and this plan has high effect on rural life. Therefore it is essential that we study guidance plan base of rural managers and rural councils attitude. Investigative method was descriptive, analysis (survey method) and research tools were questionnaire. Statistical society includes rural managers and rural council members. Sampling method in rural managers was census method and rural council methods were random sampling method. Number of rural managers was 31 and number of rural council members was 103 respondents (in councils with 3 members we select 3 respondents and in rural councils with 5 members we select 3 respondents). Results shows that guidance plan have positive effect on structure of village. But in economic and cultural dimensions, there is no effect on villages. Maps of guidance plan were weak. Respondent believe that there are low satisfaction about guidance plan among rural managers and rural council members. It is important and we must notice to it.

In this research, impacts of climate change on the streamflow hydrological status of the Arazkooseh River are discussed. After Calibration and validation of the LARS-WG, HadCM3 was downscaled under A2 Scenario in three climatology station. Beside, calibration and validation of the SWAT model were done by observed data relative to past period of times. Streamflow values are then predicted using climatic parameters of period of 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 years via SWAT model. The results indicated that the average annual temperature will increased around 0.8, 1.2 and 4.9 °C in desired periods, respectively. Precipitation values will increased 8.8 and 11.2 percent in the early and mid- century and it will decreased with 7.8 percent in the last years of century, correspondingly. The peak of rainfall will moved from month of March to the December. Because of climate changes, streamflow will increase 13 and 5 percent in the near periods. By contrast, in this case, it will reduce around 18 percent in far future. In this case research, the river discharge will increased in autumn and will decreased in spring seasons. Likewise, results of estimation showed that the annual peak flow will shifted from month of March to the April.

In Iran the issue of occurring natural disasters, particularly mesoscale convective systems. They are important on one hand, because of their increasing intimidations and causing damages and on the other hand, because of their increasing abundance, time of duration, and happening. Therefore life cycle, constituton condition and mesoscale convective systems features in west of Iran using satellite and extention area index and thresholds of brightness temperature 221 and 243 K have been studied. After their statistic analysis, based on mesoscale convective system importance, life and daily cycle, behavior parameters, and synoptic conditions of this system life cycle were analysed. Most of the systems have been formed in southeastern Iraq and in western Zagros hillsides. Wile puberty stages (the maturity) and their expandings were increased with the height increase; in turn, declining of the systems began by passing Zagros chain mountains. The system extention area at the system life cycle starting increases with a smooth process; whereas the reduction process of the system extention area at the declining stage was severe and sudden.

There are numerous methods to estimate missing values of which some are used depending on the data type and regional climatic characteristics. In this research, part of the monthly precipitation data in Sarab synoptic station, east Azerbaijan province, Iran was randomly considered missing values. In order to study the effectiveness of various methods to estimate missing data, by seven classic statistical methods and M5 model tree as one of efficient data mining methods, hypothetical missing values were estimated using precipitation data from neighbor station. The results showed that multiple imputation, Delta Learning Rule, and Multivariable Linear Regression (MLR) yield relatively more accurate results with fewer errors. The results also indicate the fact that, developing if-then rules, M5 tree model, as one of modern data mining methods, has been able to give the most accurate results among the mentioned methods with four simple linear relationship and statistical values including correlation coefficient (0.974), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (0.948), RMSE (5.11), and MAE (4.189). Therefore, taking simple modeling process, functionality, comprehensibility, and high accuracy of this method into account, this method is proposed to estimate monthly precipitation missing values.

The purpose of this study is erosion and sediment is estimated in whole of Lay watershed, located in the North Wast of Iran.In this study, the model of WEPP, was provided for simulation and forecast of erosion and sedimentation in the study watershed. The data required for WEPP model are entered in six files, including soil file, management, climate, slope, channel and pounds files. In this study, after determining of work units, the information for developing file were collected. In this region there are, 3 types of soil, 2 managements and 5 channel types. After making the files, WEPP model was run via Geowepp software. It is notable that in this software water erosion and sediment amount was estimated by three methodes of hillslope, watershed and fow path. In these methods sediments estimated were 0.308, 0.215, 0.491 tha-1 y-1, respectively. According to estimated results, the hillslpe with 0.308 tha-1 y-1 was in good agreement with actual amount 0.319 and is suitable for the erosion and sediment of Lay watershed.

Urban segregation has been a problem of many cities of the world. Many researchers have interested in the urban segregation issues. Urban segregation has strongly concentrated poverty and created underclass. Different types of urban segregation exist, including income and racial or ethnical segregation, and depending on the contextual mechanisms within a city. To understand and plan a better community, urban planners needs to know how to measure the segregation and interpret the results. There have been many developments of segregation measures. Some evolved and some remained unchanged. This paper is studied the most used multigroup measures of residential segregation (8 indicators) in Shiraz city and between different socio-economic groups of it by using of the Segregation Analyzer Software. In general, the results show the occurrence of segregation in the medium amount to the high amount and by the calculated values of 0/7177, 0/5785, 0/5474 – 1, 0/5407, 0/3969, 0/3759, 0/3613, 0/3375 in the city of Shiraz. On the other hand, the use of Hot spots Analysis in the study area shows that the greatest concentrations of the socio-economic high group are in almost near the center of Shiraz city and the northwest of city, and for the socio-economic medium group exists in the west of city. Also there is the greatest concentration of the socio-economic low group in the southwest of Shiraz city.