فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال یازدهم شماره 1 (بهار 1390)

Nowadays, the effect and importance of housing and its role in Iran’s economy cannot be underestimated. Housing as a fundamental and basic need for Iranian households is not just a shelter, but is considered as a crucial asset. It has a superior financial value as well. Expansion in urbanization, especially in Tehran, regarding its financial and political importance has contributed to this situation. In this paper, using time interval data between the years 1981 to 2005, the casual relation between variables which affect housing in urban districts through analyzing and monitoring Granger-Hissao, Simes causality test, have been utilized and its impacts are examined in self-regression model. The results indicate that there was a causality relation between price of house, bank loans, number of households and their incomes. Nevertheless, house price had the most impact on instabilities of housing during this period.

In macroeconomics literature inspired by traditional economists, it is said that economic growth and more equal distribution in income, are two opposite targets since moving toward more equality of income, will reduce propensity to saving. Based on the optimum growths models, it seems that the highest levels of growth can happen in a system just when in allocating the resources among the generations the attention is more paid to the concept of justice. If in this process the attention is more paid to the present generation compared to the future ones, the available resources for the whole system will decrease and as a result the economic growth will be stabilized at far lower rates. The more economic justice means the higher rate for economic growth. In this paper we use an optimal growth theory for studying the mechanics of this regularity. Empirical calibration of the model to the Iranian economy reveals that if economic policy makers in a planning period via a scenario can decrease social time preference to a 5%, real per capita GDP, consumption, saving and per capita capital formation will increase by 6.5%, 2.2% and 42% respectively.

The macroeconomic situation, government and central bank intervention in economy accompanied by business cycle consequences resulted from world economy, can stimulate profitability of borrowers and cause high default rates of payments for banking systems. In such an atmosphere, having an estimated model helps us to better understand the relations among macroeconomic variables, the behavior of bad loans and credit risk. In this paper, we study the influence of macroeconomic shocks on the bad loans from 2000 to 2007. At first, we apply an ARDL model, since the exogenous variables of this model have endogenous characteristics as well; we attempt to utilize a VAR model to explain the dynamic behavior of these variables. Impulse-response function is also used as a stress testing factor to investigate the impulse effects of bad loans to economic shocks. Based on estimated models, we study the effects of economic shocks such as loans interest rate, government expenditures, oil price and liquidity on non-performing loans.

Hyper inflation rates impose direct and indirect costs upon society. It has undesirable consequences that are caused by inflation uncertainty. In this regard, the following questions are raised: How do inflation rate and its uncertainty affect economic growth? Does the structural breakpoint affect relationship between inflation and growth rate? In this study the above questions are examined for the Iran's economy in period 1974-2007. For this purpose the regressive model is applied. In this model, growth rate of GDP depends on inflation rate, growth rate of the money supply, growth rate of the real gross fixed capital formation and inflation uncertainty. For the measuring inflation uncertainty Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used. Based on data analysis, structural break point occurs at inflation rate equal to 20 percent. Results show that the impact of inflation rate on economic growth is significantly negative but it minimizes at the rate of less than 20 percent and increases at the rate of more than 20 percent. Moreover, inflation uncertainty has significant and negative effect on growth.

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate on non-oil export covering the period from 1978 to 2006. The method used in this study is Panel data, and these countries are selected as the hosts: Turkey, The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Pakistan. In this research, Gross Domestic Product of the host country, Bilateral Exchange Rate, Price Raito and Dummy Variable are used as regressor for non-oil exports. The result of this study shows that, gross domestic product and exchange rate have positive effect, but price ratio and dummy variable have negative effect on non-oil exports of Iran to these countries. Also Cross Section Specific coefficient shows that exchange rate has positive effect on export to Turkey, The UAE and Pakistan, while negative effect on other countries.

Tourism is an old concept. Since the 1960's economists in the field of development have referred to tourism as an industry. With the turn of the century the tourism industry has become a major source of income and an important foreign currency provider. According to WTO reports this industry ranks third in securing foreign cash at a worldwide level and after petroleum and automobile industry is the biggest industry. Based on the WTO reports the statistics on tourism have been on an expansion path in all areas. Concomitant with this fact, the planning and investing to take advantage of the benefits of this growing industry has been intense too. Countries with old and historical attractions and ancient monuments have been able to attract more tourists. On the other hand countries with less ancient attractions have tried to attract tourists through other means such as unique recreation centers and natural sceneries. After security, the main factor for the development and progress in the tourism industry in each country is a well established and efficient transportation system. Therefore, paying attention to tourism infrastructure and the underlying facilities such as roads and transportations are major challenges that every country must deal with if they plan to really benefit from tourism. The D-8 countries consisting of Indonesia, The Islamic Republic of Iran, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia, Egypt and Nigeria in their first gathering in the June of 1997 in Istanbul, Turkey formally agreed, among other issues, on mutual and bilateral cooperation in the area of tourism. Therefore, this study is an attempt to evaluate the potentials and also set the grounds for the fulfillment of one of the objectives of the D-8 member state's mandate. In this research a simple method of computing tourism potentials among the D-8 countries for the year 2005 is employed. The results indicate that Indonesia, The Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey, Malaysia and Egypt have good opportunities in tourism. However, in most cases such opportunities have not been fully utilized.

By a transient glance at the Iranian government budget, it is found that in almost all years, a large amount of the Iranian government budget deficit is provided by issuing money. Money issuing through inflation and real economic growth, leads to increased revenue for the government. Through increasing the general level of prices and decreasing the purchasing power it leads to the concept of “inflation tax” which is taken from people without their awareness. By real economic growth, more real balance will be demanded for transaction of additional production. In such a condition, the government by paying credit money takes the possession of the goods and services which have inherent value. Regarding the importance of growth in macroeconomic discussions, in this study, the relationship between seigniorage and per capita income growth by using econometrics models has been analyzed. Using time series data for 1966 – 2007 the econometric models have been estimated through CLS approach and threshold level of seigniorage is assessed. The results show that seigniorage has meaningful and negative effect on the economic growth at more than 3.5% but its effect on economic growth less than 3.5% is neutral.