فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال چهاردهم شماره 1 (بهار 1393)

In this paper، we design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate effects of fiscal dominance on inflation rate in Iran and solve it by calibration method. In order to getting reliable results، the second-order moments of main variables were compared based on actual and simulated data; and functions of impulse response to model innovations were considered. The results show that the degree of fiscal dominance in Iranian economy is about 92%، i. e.، the independence degree of monetary and fiscal policies is nearly 8%. Therefore، decreasing fiscal dominance may lead to decreasing inflation rate in Iran. In addition، any action for increasing independence of central bank and decreasing dependence of government on seigniorage revenue will play important role in reducing inflation rate in Iran.

This paper aims to study the relationship between intellectual property and patent protection and economic growth in Iran using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique during 1979 – 2010. This model is based on economic growth models in 1990s. The number of patents is used to measure the impact of patents on economic growth. Moreover، we investigate the casual relationships among economic growth، degree of economic openness، foreign direct investment، information and communication technology (ICT) and human development. The results indicate that patent protection has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Furthermore، the casual relationships from degree of economic openness، foreign direct investment، ICT and human development to economic growth are positively significant. Based on numerical results، one-unit increases in ICT، HDI، patents، government expenditure and oil revenues lead to 0. 10، 0. 12، 0. 10، 0. 39 and 0. 21 percent increase in economic growth respectively. Hence، we conclude that the higher intellectual property and patent protection results in high economic growth.

Estimating the size of shadow economy is of special importance in setting macroeconomic variables and fiscal policies. In recent years، the fuzzy inference sets have been used for measuring shadow economy. In this paper، we present eight new fuzzy indicators for modeling and estimating the size of shadow economy. Thus، according to Lucas definition، we divide the shadow economy into four sectors and define two indicators for each sector. After three fuzzy inference phases، we measure the size of shadow economy. Our results indicate that the effect of production household on Iran’s shadow economy size is decreasing; and irregular، informal and illegal sectors impact size of shadow economy. In addition، the size of Iran’s shadow economy is estimated around 13 percent of GDP، on average، over 1970- 2007.

The prevalence of electronic money has affected the volume of banknotes and coins in circulation in Iran. This paper aims to study and analyses the mechanism of e-money impacts on currency volume. In this regard، the effects of e-money issuance and development indicators، such as number of debit cards، number of ATM machines، number of Point of Sales (POS) terminals، number of terminals in bank branches، on the volume of banknotes and coins in circulation are estimated using quarterly data during 2004-2010. The estimation results show that the increase in the number of debit cards raises the volume of currency in circulation. This arises since the debit cards are often used to get money for daily and weekly purchases from ATM machines in Iran. In addition، the number of Point of Sales has a negative effect on the volume of currency in circulation.

Efficiency of economical units especially banks is one of the success factors in developed countries. In this regard، managers of the banks are responsible for the efficiency of them، which is not possible without evaluation of efficiency of the bank branches under the supervision of the managers. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a method for calculating the efficiency of various organizations having multiple-inputs multiple-outputs. This method leads to ordering of efficient and inefficient branches and identifying reference unit (DMU) to attain efficiency frontier. Also، effectiveness of each variable in efficiency of each unit can be determined. In this research، an input-oriented BCC model with envelopment form has been employed. Thus، the statistical data from 17 branches of Refah Kargaran Bank in Lorestan Province was collected during 2010-2011. The results show that there are 11 efficient branches (65% of the branches) and 6 inefficient branches. Inefficient branches were ranked in terms of their efficiency، and AP model was used for ranking of the efficient branches. Finally، TOPSIS was applied for ranking of the branches in order to verify the results.

The impact of trade liberalization on welfare of trade partners has been the subject of various economic studies، but components of welfare and their decomposition is considered by this study. The study of Huff and Hertel (2000) and the global trade analysis project constitute the theoretical basics of this research. First، by using the graphical approach، the distortion in labor market is investigated within a closed economy with two producing sectors. Than by using a mathematical approach، welfare effects will be decomposed using single and multi regions models. It is shown that various components affect welfare changes resulting from policy shocks. The effects of reduction in tariffs of imported agriculture commodities from Iran to WTO are examined. The results show that the Iran’s welfare rises because of positive contribution of allocative efficiency، terms of trade and tariff revenues. The changes in aggregate labor demand، investment and technology progress are the important elements in welfare changes due to trade policy، but in static models such as GTAP، these components are fixed، however the theoretical analysis shows that they may lead to welfare.

Nowadays، the issue of service quality for service-provider organizations specifically banks is of considerable importance. The service-provider organizations (specifically governmental banks) are aware from the necessity of getting satisfaction of customer and assessing quality of services. In this research، we evaluate and analyze the gap of expected and current service quality. In fact، the gap between customer´s expectations of bank services and customers perceptions is assessed based on the hierarchical service quality model (HSQM)، which has been introduced by Brady and Cronin in 2001. To do this، customers of Keshavarzi Bank are given as statistical population and a sample with 384 people is extracted from Tehran Keshavarzi Banks using Krejcie-Morgan Table and Cochran formula. The results show that just in two dimensions of HSQM namely «waiting time» and «valence»، there is no significant difference between expectations and perceptions، but there are gaps among expectations and perceptions in the other dimensions.

The topic of this paper is development crisis from anthropologists’ perspective. This crisis challenges the current development discourse and reveals the necessity of alternative discourse for development. Current development arrangements are not responding for international community; in addition، differentiations and labels (for example “developed” or “underdeveloped”) have fossilized because of dual crises of paradigm and economy; and they need to new versions of social and global formulations. Studying of anthropological consequences of development crisis، its critical idea، and similarities of Islamic revolution discourse with anthropologists approach is the main purpose of this paper. So، we use descriptive - analytic methodology with discourse approach. Finally، we criticize anthropology، pure conceptualization of development crisis in terms of political and economic terms، establish an alternative approach for development، and found new development discourse against the dominant hegemonic discourse of development. The post-development discourse is a movement about the domination of modern development sciences، which focuses on local independence، culture، and knowledge. In this paper، the local and pluralistic movements are proposed for strengthening of alternative discourse of development. In the end، we conclude that Iranian religious discourse and anthropologists’ post-developmental discourse present alternative discourses for development by deconstructing and reexamining of modern development model.

In this paper، we analyze the determinants of Intra-Industry trade (IIT) between Iran and her trading partners، i. e. European Union، ECO، GCC and ASEAN countries using dynamic panel data and GMM during 1997-2009. This study uses country-specific characteristics such as economic size، per capita income، foreign direct investment، geographical distance، and trade imbalance as explanatory variables. The results indicate that economic size، per capita income، and geographical distance explain most of IIT between Iran and her trading partners. According to econometric findings، the economic size has high and positive correlation with IIT، however per capita income affects negatively IIT. Thus، differences in aggregate demand and supply should be considered in selecting trade partners. The similarity in income structure leads to same demand structure and expansion of trade volume. In addition، geographical distance and trade imbalance has negative effect on IIT flow in Iran.

The substantial share of informal employment in Iran، on the one hand and the growing use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in analyzing economic policies by central banks and eliminating the flaws of these models، on the other hand، necessitate designing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with dual labor market based on Iran''s economy. To do so، the current study divides labor market into formal and informal sectors. In addition، it classifies firms in formal and informal ones regarding the type of the production function and labor. The annual data used in the model are collected from the Central Bank and the Statistical Center of Iran during 1974-2010. After calibrating and solving the model with numerical method، the shock effects of total factors productivity، government expenditure، oil revenue، and money growth on real variables of the model have been analyzed with and without nominal wage rigidity. The results of the study suggest that the informal sector of the labor market in different business cycles acts as a buffer with countercyclical shift. The money is not neutral in the short run due to lack of rigidity in a model of monopolistic competition، so money supply affects real variables of economy.