فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال هفدهم شماره 1 (بهار 1396)

This research examines the effect of monetary policies on unemployment under inflation uncertainty in Iran using the annual data during 1974-2011. The basic model is selected according to the simultaneous equilibrium of dynamic aggregate demand and supply. In addition, inflation uncertainty is calculated using the GARCH family models including ARCH, GARCH and EGARCH. The generated data from a novel model is considered as a proxy for inflation uncertainty, and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used to estimate this model. The estimation results show that inflation uncertainty reduces the unemployment rate, i.e. the effect of monetary policies on unemployment is decreased under inflation uncertainty, and there is a significant and positive relationship between unemployment and inflation rates. Henceforth, an increase in inflation uncertainty leads to an increase in unemployment rate, which is in line with Friedman's theory in this field

This paper investigates the effect of reduction in agricultural subsidies in Iran. To this end, the social accounting matrix (SAM) as an analytical model is developed with dimensions of 78 × 78 for the year 2006. Since the amount of subsidies paid to the agriculture sector, based on Total Aggregate Measurement of Support (TAMS), is higher than amount set by the World Trade Organization, hence, in the case of applying for membership of Iran in this organization, Iran should reduce subsidies during a 10-year period, annually by reduction as much as 13600 billion Rials. This paper studies the reduction in agricultural subsidies by 13600 billion Rials. The findings indicate the reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) by more than 57000 billion Rials. One main effect of reduction in agricultural subsidies relates to reduction in output and employment, in such a way this shock results in reducing number of agricultural employees by 86000 people.

Islamic banking includes profit and loss sharing (PLS) and transaction contracts. Transaction contracts have fixed rates of return, which in turn form a base for allocating the financial resources to PLS contracts. In Iran, the rates of return in transaction contracts are determined by Central Bank. In this research, we compute and estimate the rates of return in transaction contracts using the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks and Radial Basis Function (RBF). This research is an extension and improvement of Dadgar and Firoozan (2012) work. Data used for algorithms is the real data gathered from manufacturing workplaces having more than 10 employees. Our results show that two networks are of good accuracy to estimate the coefficients of shadow cost function, and most of them are approximately equal in two networks.
Compared to econometric method, the proposed model has no sampling limitation. This method accounts for all of 14000 manufacturing units in 2007, and consequently the computational errors are much less than those of econometric calculations. According to the results, the estimated rate of return for transaction contracts is 15%. This rate in comparison with the prevailing rate, i.e. 12%, reflects a 20% deviation in determining rate of return, which causes undeniable costs on the economy and allocation of limited resources.

Using Ramsey – Cass – Koopmans optimal growth model and specifying government’ tax behavior, this study analyzes the effect of tax policies on steady-state and optimal dynamic path of consumption, capital stock and output for Iran and a group of East Asian countries. In this regard, after specifying consumption and capital stock dynamic behaviors, a model is calibrated and simulated for the selected economies by using annul data during 1980 -2010. Based on the simulation results for Iran, and compared to East Asian region, reductions in tax rates have no significant effects on steady- state and optimal dynamic path of capital stock, consumption and per capita output. Hence, tax policies are not effective in stimulating the real sector of the Iranian economy. The results also show that reductions in rates of income tax, capital gain tax and profit tax have positive and significant effects on the long-run steady-state path of consumption, capital stock and output, especially in less developed East Asian countries. The simulation results show that reduction in consumption tax rate, in particular across the highly developed East Asian countries, has positive and significant effect on steady-state of consumption; however, it has no effect on capital stock and output.

Optimal performance of an economic system depends on the presence of efficient, strong, and supplementary real and financial sectors. Working together of them is necessary and sufficient condition for the survival of the economic system in general. This study aims to explain the impact of transaction cost on financial development for OPEC members during 1990-2012. In the present study, the effect of transaction costs on financial development is estimated by an econometric model according to Baltagi et al (2007). In this regard, the index of the banking sector efficiency (private credits) is used to explore the development of the banking sector, and stock market turnover ratio (in percent) and Total Value (of shares) Traded (TVT)/GDP (in percent) is used to study the development of the non-banking sector. Explanatory variables include the transaction costs, the government size, the per capita income, and degree of openness of economy. The estimation results using Panel Data indicate that the transaction costs affect financial development significantly; and the reduced transaction costs result in increasing financial development. With regard to property rights, we conclude that guaranteed property rights raise the financial development. Also, per capita income and government size have positive and negative relationships with financial development, respectively.

Exchange rate is the key variable in each economy. This paper tries to examine the effects of volatilities in exchange rate market on selected macroeconomic variables in Iran, and to present some strategic recommendations. Inspiring by Danmola method, this paper uses the variance decomposition and impulse response function based on Cholesky decomposition of Vector-autoregressive method. The findings show that real exchange rate volatility has the most effect on profit rate of the short-run deposits during 2001:Q1-2012:Q4. Following profit rate of short-run deposits, the highest variation in inflation rate is explained by real exchange rate volatility. The economic growth is affected positively by exchange rate volatility (EEV) in both short- and long-run, but it is influenced negatively by EEV in the midterm. On the other hand, trade balance is deteriorated by shocks in real exchange rate with short lags. Our findings are compatible with those of similar studies among developing countries.

In order to allocate capital optimally and to achieve an appropriate level of employment, the manner and extent of impact of capital stock on employment creation should be investigated in different economic sectors. The paper aims to examine the effects of capital stock on employment in Iran’s industrial sector from 1980 to 2011, using a dynamic approach to demand for labor. In this regard, the demand for labor is estimated as a function of value added, wages, capital stock and labor productivity, using an autoregressive distributed lags model (ARDL).
The results indicate that capital stock has positive and significant effect on labor demand and employment across industries in both long-run and short-run, implying complementarity between capital and labor. According to the results of this research, granting more credits to the industrial sector, directing them to purchase new and highly advanced equipment and absorbing foreign investment will lead to create more jobs.

The trade-off between the quantity and quality of children is one of the topics in family economics with crucial implications in fertility and determination of family size. This paper aims to answer this question: does educational quality of children decrease due to increase in the number of children of a typical family? The microeconomic analysis of this matter implies the existence of such trade-off. This analysis confirms that the rising price of demand for child due to the increase in women’s education level leads to the lower quantity but higher quality of children. The results based on 1294 observations from primary school students in Tehran show that an increase in family size leads to a statistically significant fall in average scores as an educational measure and math point as talent measure of students. Additionally, it is shown that women’s employment has negative effect on educational achievement of their children, while higher parental schooling and family income lead to better educational performance of them. How to feed children is the other interfamily feature, which helps to develop mental ability of children.