فهرست مطالب

مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی - پیاپی 33 (تابستان 1391)

فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 33 (تابستان 1391)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1391/05/17
  • تعداد عناوین: 8
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  • Kazem. Yavary, Mehdi Zolfaghari Page 1
    Electrical energy is one of the most important sources of energy in Iran and has a special role in economic decision-making processes. Correct planing to meet electricity demand over time is dependent on having a sound assessment of evolving needs. In this paper, we design a new estimation model that is a comdination of linear and nonlineal models. This model is used to assess the trend of electricity daily demand and its determining factors. We then proceed to forecast electricity daily demand using the ARIMA, Radial Basis Function Neural Network and Wavelet Transform methods together for single and ten steps in time periods. The results indicate that the suggested combined model has better performance in forecasting daily electricity demand based on Forecast Accuracy Evaluation indicators.
    Keywords: Forecasting, Electricity Demand, Wavelet Transform, Radial Basis Function Neural Network, ARIMA
  • Davood Behboodi, Samad Hekmati Farid Page 31
    This paper evaluates the Welfare effects of reform of the energy subsidy system on different deciles of households. This study uses Household Panel data from Statistics Center of Iran in the 2000-2007 periods in 10 expenditure deciles, in order to estimate the demand function for different facets of energy using the Almost Ideal demand system (AIDS). The results show that with increasing prices, calculated Compensation and Equivalent Variations of bottom deciles account for a higher share of household income and therefore they lose higher welfare than top deciles.
    Keywords: Subsidy, Compensation Variations, Equivalent Variations, AIDS, urban Households, Expenditure Deciless
  • Hassan Heidari, Lesyan Saeidpour Page 53
    This paper investigates the dynamic long-run and short-run relationship among GDP, energy consumption, nonoil exports, gross fixed capital formation and employment in the case of Iranian economy, using the annual time series data for the period of 1967 to 2007. We applied Bounds test approach to the relationship proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Moreover, we used Bai and Perron (2003) and Lee and Strazicich (2003) tests to respectively determine endogenous break points, and equilibrium values of the variables under consideration,. The results of Bounds test confirms existence of a long-run relationship among variables. The speed of adjustment to restore equilibrium for the cases where GDP and nonoil exports are considered as dependent variables are 0.50 and 0.69, respectively. The resulting values of the long-run coefficients suggest a positive impact of energy consumption, gross fixed capital formation and employment on GDP, with coefficients of 0.26, 0.24 and 0.53, respectively. In addition, GDP is found to have a positive impact on nonoil-exports. The above confrims that energy plays an important role in Iran's economic growth.
    Keywords: GDP, Energy Consumption, Non, Oil Exports, Bounds Test, Iran
  • Z. Salimian, M.Kordbacheh, M. Sadeghi Shahdani, V. Mokarizadeh Page 85
    Successful removal of energy subsidy is contingent on a sound assessment of its implications for electricity generation. While it is easy to calculate the direct increased costs of higher fuel prices on electricity generation, indirect increases in costs of other inputs, e.g. labour and capital, is more difficult to identify. It is natural that taking into account these indirect cost increases, raises the total expected cost of each kilowatt of electricity. In this paper we use an expanded input output table model to internalize impact of energy subsidy removal on all inputs used in electricity generation and supply. The study indicates that the cost of each kilowatt hour of electricity will rise to between 1400 and 1700 Rials, substantially higher than foreseen increased electricity prices.
    Keywords: Energy subsidy reform measures, Final electricity cost, internalizing wage rates, Input, output table
  • R. Zeynalzadeh, Z. Sadeghi, M. Dehghanpour, M. Ghaedi Page 115
    There is increased interest in renewable sources of energy due to the finite and poluting nature of fossil fuels. Solar energy is one of the most important types of renewable energy sources and is condidered an important alternative to fossil fuels. This study used life-cycle cost analysis and environmental assessment of photovoltaic systems in the five provinces of South Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Kerman, Yazd and Hormozgan, for both residential and commercial uses. The economic evaluation is done under two scenarios. Under the first scenario all costs are born by consumers, while the second scenario supposes that 50 percent of primary costs are covered by the government and for the rest, the consuner is provided with ten year loans at two percent interest. The results of this study suggest that the use of photovoltaic systems to generate electricity under the first scenario (without government support) has is not economically viable, but with government support (scenario II), the project becomes viable.
    Keywords: Renewable Energies, Photovoltaic System, Life, cycle Cost, Environmental Polution
  • Morteza Behrouzifar, Shaghayegh Bayaati Page 151
    This paper studies the Co-integration between Natural Gas Prices in North American, Continental European and Japanese Natural gas Markets. We analyze the changes of Natural Gas Prices in the different regions using principal components analysis (PCA) and Johanson and Joselius tests method. The study results show us that Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices and those of Natural Gas transported by pipeline in Canada are Co-integrated and have a long run relationship. We also observe that prices of Natural Gas transported by pipeline in Europe are Co-integrated with Japan LNG Prices. The study further indicates that European and Japanese Natural Gas Prices are more responsive to Oil Price Fluctuations than North America Gas Prices. In this study we used monthly periodic data for 1997-2009.
    Keywords: Co, Integration, Natural Gas Price, Johanson, Joselius, PCA
  • Ali Akbar Nikuegbal, Azadeh Akhtari, Mahbobe Amini Esfidvajani, Maryam Attar Kashani Page 169
    The interrelationship amongst energy consumption, economic growth and pollution is an important consideration to be studied for arriving at the objective of reaching growth goals while preserving the environment. The current paper aims to define the long run dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emission (Co2) using the DPE approach and GMM-SYS techniques.The paper uses data collected from 46 countries for the period 1975 to 2004. Since the bidirectional causal relationship varies between developed and developing countries, the data are divided into three categories: lower middle income (ML), upper middle income (MH) and high income (H). The estimated results demonstrate that there is a causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for all the countries in the sample. The results however, indicate that while there is a positive causal Relationship from economic growth to carbon dioxide emission (Co2) in the ML, the relationship becomes negative for the MH & H groups. This finding can be seen as confirming existence of the Environmental Kuznets curve, through the decreasing trend of co2 emission intensity as incomes increase. However, the existence of the Environmental Kuznets curve is not confirmed when we use DOLS technique to review data for all countries. We are rather confronted with an N curve relationship in this case.
    Keywords: Granger causality relationship, Environmental Kuznets curve, energy intensity
  • Maryam Keshavarzian, Sara Kamali Anaraki, Mehrzad Zamani, Ali Erfanifard Page 199
    This paper predicts oil demand for road transport across 154 countries by using available data to project demand up to 2020. Oil demand for road transport accounts for more than 50% of total world oil demand. Vehicle ownership (in 1000 population) is estimated using the nonlinear Gompertz model by pooled time series cross-sections data for all countries of the world. Different saturation levels for countries and over time are estimated by using demographic and geographic variables. Oil demand is estimated as the product of vehicle stock and “oil use pervehicle” under two scenarios, In the “policy scenario” alternative fuels and technologies and new regulations are deemed to affect the oil demand. Oil demand for road transport for the sample of 154 countries is expected to be 14748 million barrels in 2020 with a 50% increase of the vehicle fleet under the business as usual scenario. However, if measures are taken to reduce per vehicle use fuel use under the "policy scenario", total demand will only increase to 11601 million barrels demonstrating a 20% savings.
    Keywords: vehicle ownership, Gompertz function, saturation level, road transportation oil consumption