فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 35 (زمستان 1391)

Establishment of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran in 2001 has substantially changed the gas market. It seems that the biggest problem that GECF members face is to promote cooperation and design a model for forecasting future demand and supply for gas. Finding an appropriate mechanism for cooperation for Export of Gas through Pipeline، is complex، given the time consuming، complicated and expensive nature of such activities. In this paper we develop a game theoretical model for cooperation between GECF members for Export of Gas through Pipeline. The results show that while the complex nature of the gas market complicates the issue، forum members can benefit from cooperating with each other in gas exports.

This paper analyzes the impact of increased Energy Prices on welfare of Residential consumers، using an almost Ideal demand system (AIDS). We calculate the elasticity and changes in welfare under scenarios of 2، 3، 4، 5، and 6 fold increases in prices using Compensation Variations (CV) and Equivalent Variation (EV) measures for the period 1974 to 2009. The results of the Marshalian and expenditure elasticities indicate that Natural Gas، Electricity and Oil (Kerosene and Gas Oil) have negative self and cross elasticity of prices. Natural Gas and Electricity have the quality of «luxury» goods. Oil ha the quality of an Essential good. All three energy sources have a net substitute relationship and degree of substitution of Natural Gas and Oil relative to Natural Gas Electricity is higher than the degree of substitution of Electricity and Oil relative to Oil and Natural Gas. The computation of CV measures and comparison with the current amount of subsidy payments by government to residential energy consumers show that the loss in welfare of consumers in 2009 is compensated، if prices increase 6 folds. But the consumers experience a loss in welfare in April 2012، if prices are increased 6 fold.

Benefits of investment in the electricity industry transmit to other activities through several channels. This is done mainly through “the price channel” in free markets and “the capital return channel” in fixed-price regulated markets. In this study we apply a comparative static analysis of economic impacts of investment in the electricity industry in both controlled and free market environments. We apply a CGE model which is calibrated using the 2001 Energy Micro Consistent matrix (MCM) of the Iranian Ministry of Energy. The model assumes a small open economy with imperfect capital and labor mobility between sectors. We found that regulated markets are less efficient than free markets. While under fixed electricity prices، a one unit of investment increases household welfare by 0. 16%، under a free market regime household welfare increases more than three times (about 0. 52%) m.

Different locations of Natural Gas production and consumption on the one hand and the rapid increase in Natural Gas demand other are two main factors that increase Natural Gas trade volume in the world. As a result Natural Gas transit and transmission conditions are one of the most important issues in the energy market. Due to the strategic location of Iran and its oil and Natural Gas reserves the country can benefit from this global trade. This paper evaluates usual ways of calculating transit fees and compares the economic benefit of Natural Gas import from Turkmenistan and its export to Turkey given transit fees and transmission costs. The main factor in Natural Gas import – export is the agreement on import and export prices. In the case of Natural Gas transit by pipeline، the third party can maximize his profit function by bargaining with seller and buyer for higher transit fees while the buyer and seller bargain for lower fees، until a market clearing optimal price is reached. The Results indicate that profits of importing natural gas from Turkmenistan and exporting to Turkey are lower than natural gas transit fees.

In This paper، we estimate the energy consumption function، using the ARDL approach for the period of 1971-2008. The results offer empirical evidence of the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in Iran. There is a long run and stable relationship between energy consumption، gross domestic production (GDP)، urbanization and energy prices. The data confirm a positive relation between energy consumption and urbanization for the long run and short run in Iran. The results of the ECM test، shows that all imbalances in the model، are resolved in the long run، and the correction of short run error takes less than 3 years.

This study attempts to introduce an efficient model for modeling and forecasting the fluctuations of Iran''s crude oil price. In this regard، the study uses weekly time series data of Iran''s crude oil price from January 1997 to November 2011. We examine the existence of long term memory in both mean and variance equations of Iran''s crude oil prices. Our results confirm the existence of this property in both mean and variance equations. Amongst the models based on the information criteria and MSE، the Garch and EMBED Equation. 3model has been selected as the best forecastes Iran’s heavy crude oil price fluctuations.

Urbanization is a feature of economic and social modernization. It is not only a process of transferring labor from rural urban areas but it is also a process of structural transformation of the into economy. Expansion of urban populations and proliferation of cities lead to increased energy consumption which is then translated into CO2 emissio. This article aims to study the impacts of urbanization on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in oil-exporting and non-oil-exporting countries of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) based on the three theories of ecological modernization، urban environmental transition، and compact city theories. Running a model of Stochastic Impacts by regression on Population، Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) and using a balanced panel dataset of 18 countries for the period of 1990-2007، the results indicate that the effects of urbanization growth on energy consumption and on the rate of CO2 emissions vary across the two groups of countries. That is، the impact of urbanization on energy use and CO2 emissions in oil-exporting countries is greater than that for non-oil-exporting countries. This result confirms the theories of urban environmental transition and ecological modernization. The positive relation between the rate of urbanization and CO2 emissions confirms the ecological modernization theory، while، the positive relation between the rate of growth of urbanization and of energy consumption confirms the urban environmental transition theory.

Energy is considered an important factor affecting economic development. Industrial development and increased demand for various types of energy have increased the importance of energy as a whole، and electrical energy. In particular، for the national development strategies and macro policies of nations. This study ranks different power producing stations based upon sustainable development criteria (economic، social، and environmental) through applying a multi- attribute decision making approach of ANP-BOCR. It proceeds to analyze، the ranking of stations through use of super decisions software. The results indicate that combined cycle and nuclear stations have superiority in term of advantages offered. However with reference to costs، combined cycle and hydroelectric stations are most economical. Besides، in term of opportunities offered، renewable stations rank highest. Finally، combined cycle stations have the least risks.