فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 41 (تابستان 1393)

At the beginning of the 3rd AD millennium، industrially and economically fundamental changes have taken place in most developed and/or developing countries. Economically، concerning the perspective ahead of these communities، one of the most important issues occupying all of their authorities’ minds is energy provision. Meanwhile، optimization of energy systems and use of new energies as the replacement for fossil ones is deemed important. In this study hybrid system optimization was made using the genetic algorithm method، including the energies wind، sun، diesel، and battery. The results showed that in order to minimize the costs of using the hybrid system only the one containing photovoltaic and battery should be used due to high radiation potential.

Climate change is caused by global warming due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is the most important international environmental problem. In 1997، by increasing national awareness about the harmful effects of greenhouse gases، The Kyoto Protocol was formed for controlling the greenhouse gas emissions. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol makes an opportunity for all countries. CDM abates the cost of reducing emissions for industrialized countries and also provides financial resources and new technologies for developing countries. Based on Clean Development Mechanism، The emissions reduction projects provide Certified Emission Reduction (CER)، that developing countries will sell CER to the developed countries، developed countries by purchase CER As part of their obligation، offering that to the Kyoto Protocol. Construction of hydroelectric plants is the major of emission reduction projects and Iran has a high capacity in hydroelectric plants. This study evaluates construction of Gharechilar hydroelectric plants in two scenarios، present and absence Clean Development Mechanism revenue. results indicate that construction of Gharechilar hydroelectric plants reduce about 550 thousand tons of CO2 emission in produce 4/862 gig watt hours of electricity and Clean Development Mechanism revenue cause Internal rate of return (IRR) increase from10. 18 percent to12. 13 percent. Revenue obtained from the clean development mechanism improves profitability of Gharechilar hydroelectric plant project; with improve financial indicators، project attractive increases for investor.

This paper investigates the impact of the crude oil price uncertainty on the growth of Industry and Mine sector in Iran over the period of 1367:1 to 1389:4. We applied Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) Model to generate the crude oil price uncertainty indicator، and MSIA (3) -ARX (4،2) Model to examine the effects of this uncertainty on the Industry and Mine sector growth. Our Results show that crude oil price uncertainty in different regimes of industry and mine sector (recession، average growth and expansion) have a negative impact on this sector. Also، it is shown that under the influence of crude oil price uncertainty، duration of average growth is more than recession regime and it is more than expansion regime، respectively. In general، in the case of uncertainty in the crude oil price، Industry and Mine sector growth is disposed to average growth and persistence of this situation. It is suggested to control the effects of oil price uncertainty on economy by changing macroeconomic policies، creating a saving found for oil revenues، and applying rules for withdrawals from the fund in average growth periods، especially when there is a continuous increase in crude oil price. So oil price increases will be eliminated as a factor of recession and lower growth، and then the average growth regime in Industry and Mine sector will pass to expansion regime with the probability of 15% - calculated in this study.

The relationship between world Energy market and Stock market in per country are very important in studying of stock market’s efficiency، the choice of portfolio and pricing the assets. The purpose of this study is establishing a Conditional relationship between global energy market and Iran’s stock market by investigation the relationship between some risk factors (Oil price risk، Market risk، Skewness and Kurtosis) and stock return. The approach taken in this paper uses a Multi- Factor Model with consider to the direction of markets (Up or Down). We have selected 5 largest energy consumer industries in Tehran stock exchange in period of 1384-90. The results declare that in Up (Down) Oil market، there is an asymmetrical positive (negative) relationship between Oil price risk and Stock return. Also the findings show that the relationship between Market risk and stock return is asymmetrical and positive (negative) in situation of Up (down) in Tehran’s Stock exchange. So we can express that the changes in the global Oil price and changes in the Market return has a big asymmetrical effect on mentioned industries’ return.

Economics development has always been along with increasing demand for electricity. This has led to significant attention to efficiency improvement of electricity production especially in developing countries. In recent decades، many countries introduce competition in power market by restructuring and liberalization policies to achieve proper efficiency level in electricity production. In Iran، substantial reforms occurred in electricity industry structure after establishing power market in 2003. After a decade of reforms in power market، it is necessary to investigate the effect of these reforms on electricity supplier performance، since it will be helpful for progress of electricity industry restructuring and implementing similar reforms in other network industries. The aim of this study is examining the effect of market restructuring on technical efficiency in thermal power plants of Iran. For this purpose، technical efficiency of 35 thermal power plants has been calculated during the period 1999 to 2011 using Stochastic Nonparametric Data Envelopment (StoNED) method، then the impact of market restructuring on technical efficiency has been estimated by applying Panel Data Tobit model. Results indicate that market restructuring has had positive effect on technical efficiency of steam and gas power plants.

Immense reserves of fossil fuels، has caused weak attention to economize energy consumption and has consequently led to energy waste. Also، due to data limitations، timeworn equipments and traditional structure of many industries، little research has not been done in the industrial sector from this point of view. This study uses of structural decomposition approach to survey changes in CO2 emissions in Iranian industrial sectors using tables of input-output in the years 1370، 1375 and 1380. The main factors causing the changes in the emissions are analyzed. Marginal demand has been most important factor of CO2 emissions augmentations in both periods (1370-1375 and 1375-1380). The structural changes in exports have improved، it has reduced industrial emissions. Technology improvement and industrialization، however، has had a mince impact on reducing emissions، but it has improved the level of exports as a factor in the reduction for the period is 1375-1380. During two periods، energy efficiency improvement has been the most important factors in reducing CO2 emissions in the “transportation”، “refining and production of petroleum products”، “production of other non-metallic mineral” and “production of basic metals”. It seems that for more reduction in CO2 emissions particular attention should be paid to this factor.

Oil in both aspects of quantity and the value، is the most important tradable commodity in the world and due to the dependence of economic activities on this energy source، it’s the most strategic global commodity too; so that any change in oil prices can affect the global economy. Therefore the economists are always looking to identify and predict the behavior of oil prices have been. However، the need to find the methods that can predict the oil prices، with less error، is quite clear. In this regard، the econometric methods have made rapid progress and other rival methods have appeared in this field، which the fuzzy logic is one of them. This paper compares two techniques، fuzzy logic and ARFIMA to predict daily North Sea Brent oil prices over the period 1998-2011. To optimize fuzzy method first input membership functions and then output membership functions were optimized. Optimization the output membership functions cause minimizing error. The results show fuzzy logic has more advantages than ARFIMA_EGARCH method.

A good demand forecasting is an essential prerequisite to manage an electricity system. Over the years، many forecasting techniques of varying capabilities have been introduced. The precise extent of their influences، and the interactions between them، has never been fully clarified، although various forecasting factors have been explored in previous studies. Accordingly، this study adopts the Taguchi method to calibrate the controllable factors of a forecasting model. To this end an L9 (34) inner orthogonal array is constructed for the controllable factors of data period، horizon length، and number of observations required. An experimental design is then performed to establish the appropriate levels for each factor. At the same time، an L4 (23) outer orthogonal array is used to consider the inherited parameters of forecasting method as the noise factors of Taguchi method simultaneously. Through an eight steps pattern and using electricity data of Yazd province it is shown that the proposed model will improve quality of forecast and will reduce its expenses.