مجله تحقیقات منابع آب ایران
سال سیزدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 42، زمستان 1396)

In today's world, increasing water needs because of increasing in human population and the advancement of industry and agriculture is inevitable. On the one hand the restrictions and the principle of sustainability in the management of water resources, water supply and all the existing requirements made it impossible. To understand systematic approaching and integrated management of water resources allocation need to know the rules of programming. This method can estimate how to achieve the goals of water resources management. According to the characteristics of different methods used in water resources planning topics, can be concluded that the effective optimization of process issues of water resources management at basin level requires the combination use of a comprehensive simulation model with capability of fixing details at the basin scale and an optimization algorithm with capability of having many decision variables, and appropriate speed to the convergence response of optimization problem and also the lack of need to change the current relationships and equations on the question form. The factors enumerated show the necessity of doing this research, in this regard, the optimum utilization of the water system's tank with the optimum allocation on the basin with the combination of MODSIM model as a simulation model and COA (Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm) as an optimum algorithm, were reviewed. Feature of MODSIM model in direct contact with the COA algorithm can be outlined for this remarkable method.

“Combining the technological and social-behavioral solutions: is one of the most important exit strategies in the water crisis that can be useful in creating infrastructural changes in society members towards water resources conversation. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to analyze farmer's participatory-oriented water conservation behavior (FPOWCB) in the environmental psychological background. The study was a descriptive-correlational research. The research instrument was a questionnaire which its validity confirmed by a panel of agricultural extension and education specialists and water experts and its reliability verified using Cronbach's alpha coefficients (0.75≤α≤0.90). The statistical population was farmers in southern part of Urmia Lake's catchment area (N= 23750) that 378 farmers were selected as a sample using Krejcie and Morgan sample size Table and stratified random sampling method. Regression analysis findings revealed that farmers with individualistic values show fewer participatory-oriented behavior toward water resources conservation than whom with collectivist values. Moreover, these two variables could predict 32.5% of changing FPOWCB. The result of independent t test showed there is a significant difference in terms of FPOWCB between two groups of farmers who participated in training courses related to water issues and those who had not participated in such classes.

The assessment of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation climate model outputs have been become of much global interest. If the skill of the dynamic seasonal climate forecasts prove appropriate skill over the long-term (hindcast period), real-time seasonal forecast systems are able to support decision makers in managing monthly and seasonal time scales. The skill of dynamic models for target seasons depends on both the initialization and lead time. In this research, the output of 8 models enrolling in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) with more than 102 ensemble members is evaluated over Iran. Analysis of the research is for the first 6 months of the water-year when DJF precipitation has the highest proportion within the study area. The anomaly correlation is calculated using PERSIANN-CDR for evaluation of three seasons (OND, DJF, JFM) in different initializations. The bias of NMME models is also analyzed over the period of 1983-2013. The results show that the anomaly correlation of NMME individual models is high over many parts of Iran. The bias between -2 to mm/day is identified over grid points within the study area. The results of the this research addressed the need to develop multi-model ensembles to treat systematic errors, downscaling and providing probabilistic forecasts in 30 river basins in Iran which suit the real-time application of NMME models during a water year.

In most parts of the country a considerable part of the drinking water are supplied by wells and groundwater resources. Water resources which used to supply drinking water are always exposed to different pollutants. Groundwater protection is one of the major concern for decision-makers that supply and distribute drinking water. Therefore, precise calculation of wellhead protection areas is very important, because performing smaller area raises the risk of contamination of wells and considering bigger areas causes disinvestment and capital losses. In this study, by using WhAEM2000 and different methods, wellhead protection area in Damaneh–Daran aquifer of Isfahan province, were estimated. The results indicate that protection area with analytic element method is more conservative than calculated fixed radius method. Thus for emergency, essential and supportive protection areas, 2, 5 and 10 years, travel times may be used, respectively. Accordingly, essential protection area of drinking wells in this region is varying from 15 to 25 hectares for well number 2 of Damaneh and Daran’s number 1 and 2 wells in the direction of groundwater flow, respectively.

Abbandans are constructed wetland which are made up of excavation an area and creating borders of soil around it. They have significant contributions on Mazandaran province farmland irrigation but like other types of constructed wetland, are they able to bioremediat input contaminants? For a period of 9 months and on a monthly basis from Dec 2012 to Aug 2013, 54 samples were collected from inlet and outlet water of three abbandans named Nobbor and Lalle-marz utilized for fish culture and Sar-abbandan, located in north of Sari city. The temperature and pH were measured in-situ and concentration of nitrate, nitride, ammonia and total phosphorus, were measured by Atomic Absorption Apparatus in the laboratory and total nitrogen was calculated from the sum of the nitrogen data. Significant difference was observed on input-output concentration (0.083-0.016 ppm) of total phosphorus of Sar-abbandan (P = 0.016) and fish farming had no bioremediating or polluting effect on outlet parameters (α = 0.05).

Salinity of water resources is a common problem at many river basins all over the country. Helleh River Basin (HRB) with semi-arid climate located at south of Iran is one of such basins, where primary (natural) sources such as salt diapirs and salt formations are the main salinity sources. This paper deals with developing a model for basin-scale water resources salinity analysis. The model consists of two modules of water balance and salt balance where SWAT model takes role as water balance module and the salt balance module is developed in an external programming environment. It is worth mentioning that the original version of SWAT is not capable of modeling soil and water salinity. The model is applied to Shoor River a highly saline river located at upstream part of HRB and SUFI2 algorithm is utilized for calibration and validation. Calibration is based on monthly records of discharge and TDS at Shekastian hydrometery station (located on Shoor River) associated with 1995-2000 time period. Calibration results show that for the best (parameters’) estimation, goodness-of-fit measures of R-squared (R2) and Nash-Sutcliff (NS) respectively equal 0.76 and 0.73 for discharge and 0.63 and 0.56 for TDS. Also validation is based on 2001-2003 time period’s observation where R2 and NS related to the best estimation respectively equal 0.81 and 0.71 for discharge and 0.81 and 0.65 for TDS. Results demonstrate the reliable performance of model for analyzing river basin’s water and salt regimes.

Climate Change and prediction its impacts on Earth’s system is an important issue in order to reduce vulnerability and deal with it. In this context, deep uncertainty is key factor in Climate Change studies. In this study we used the regional risk assessment framework (RRA) to integrated assessment of river basin situation considering in deep uncertainties. In this regard, the Zrebar Lake basin selected as a case study for assessment of proposed methodology. The calibrated SWAT model was used for simulation of the Zrebar Lake basin in the base and climate condition. The downscaled outputs of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios of nine GCM models in three projected periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) entered into the model. After assessing changes in vulnerable factors in Zrebar Lake basin in order to improve the condition of these factors, adaptation strategies were evaluated with regional risk assessment framework. The results show that the mean annual temperature in first projection period 0.3°, in second projection period 0.6° and by the end of the twenty-first century about 1° will increased. Also the mean annual precipitation in three projected periods will increase respectively about 38.5, 66.0 and 87.1 mm. Assessment of climate change impacts on risk receptors show that crop yield and recharge of aquifers faced with greatest damage in climate change. Among the crops, rainfed wheat deal with more damage rather than other crops. The results indicate the need for appropriate infrastructure in order to cope with the effects of climate change.

The land use in Kordkandi- Duzduzan plain mainly occurs by agricultural activities so; the possibility of aquifer contaminations is very high by irrigation returned water contaminated with chemical fertilizers. Thus, vulnerability assessment of the aquifer seems to be essential for the land use management and preventing groundwater contaminations of the area. The main aim of this study is mapping the region's vulnerability by DRASTIC method and then calibration of DRASTIC model with nitrate data to improve this method. Groundwater vulnerability affecting factors such as Depth of groundwater, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone and hydraulic Conductivity, which were prepared with raster format in GIS media. Two nitrate data sets were used for validation and calibration of DRASTIC model. The results showed that the determination coefficient between nitrate concentration and the corresponding vulnerability increased from 0.6783 to 0.7903 by modifying layer weights. Based on calibrated DRASTIC vulnerability map, vulnerability index for the study area calculated between 66.56 to 148.89. The determination coefficient between nitrate concentration values and calibrated DRASTIC vulnerability map were increased in compare with the original DRASTIC map which confirms the validity of calibration process.

As a matter of fact, public funds are not considered to be sufficient and adequate enough for the construction of infrastructures, buildings and socio-economic facilities required by the country. By providing many public-private projects, the government uses the private organization's finance in order to develop and complete the required infrastructures. In this study, we are going to evaluate and rank the risk of public _private partnership in Iran’s water supply projects as discussed. At first, according to works and researchers did intra and internationally, 39 risk factors have been discovered. Then, using FMEA, risk priority number was obtained. After normalization process, 22 factors considered as critical risks have been classified into the following four subcategories such as experimental, legal, financial and technical/engineering. After analyzing and computing the overall level of risk in each subcategory by using Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation method, the experimental subcategory found to be the most critical one and financial, legal and technical / engineering as the next priorities in respect. Finally, the overall risk level of public- private partnerships for water supply projects in Qom has been proved to be 6.19, which indicates a remarkable possibility of risk in these projects.

Comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazards is a challenging issue due to the complexity and uncertainty of its factors. In this paper, the effect of antecedent rainfall (AR) on the debris flow occurrence was assessed by using of Bayesian networks (BN) in Alborz Zone, Iran. In this model, the effect of factors such as average basin height, average basin slope, watershed area, the current rainfall, AR (three days ago) and discharge one-day ago have been used as the model’s input. Six scenarios including the amounts of AR three days ago separately, AR two days ago separately, AR one day ago, cumulative rainfall of AR three days ago, cumulative rainfall of AR two days ago and the effect of excluding AR were considered. The results indicated the performance of BN model in the first case, 13% more than the second, and highest accuracy of the model was computed by the scenario of AR 3 days ago separately with a forecasting accuracy of 91%. Furthermore, excluding the effect of any of the events AR from the model causes reduction of its performance. The proposed model is able to provide reliable results in warning systems of debris flow hazards in watersheds.

This study extended the yield model with usage of fuzzy approach and finally minimizes system vulnerability, increase supply of yield demands and improve system operation in drought. For this purpose, with the aid of artificial statistical time series, the rule curve of model has been developed into rule band. Then, the yield of some reservoirs has been simulated via both new model and classic one. The results in Karaj reservoir shows that the average reliability of system for firm yield in both classic and new fuzzy model are equal. The second yield in classic and fuzzy model has average of 82% and 55% respectively. And the third yield has average of 28% and 22% respectively. The result of resiliently is almost same to reliability. Average vulnerability for both classic and fuzzy model for firm yield is 28% and 22%, for second yield is 98% and 45% respectively and for third yield in classic model for all series is equal 100% and for fuzzy model it has average of 82%. Eventually the proposed fuzzy model has been found as an improved system operation for reservoirs, especially in drought conditions.

Construction of drainage system is necessary in the south Khuzestan for amending saline soils and protecting the lands against salinity stress. Drainage systems control salinity and reclaim salinized lands. But, this system has some potential environmental effects and has become a major challenge in the areas with drainage systems in recent years. The environmental effects caused by operation can be divided into two parts: short-term effects and long-term effects of primary leaching. According to the salinity distribution of soil, short-term and long-term environmental effects are conflicted together; so that, less salt discharged to the environment due to primary leaching will result in high salt discharged to the environment during operation. Therefore, short and long term environmental effects are discussed in this study to determine the optimal parameters of drainage designing. For this purpose, multi-objective simulated annealing model was used. Also, fair division benefits model has been used to select final optimal points from multi-objective output. To test the ability of presented models, the data of Salman Farsi agro-industrial enterprise was used as a case study. According to the results, the optimum installation depth for output in multi-objective model varies between 1.1 to 2.7 meter; the optimum installation depth is reduced to 1.45-2 meters using fair benefits division model. Optimum installation depth using symmetric Nash method is approximately 1.5 meters.

The aim of this study is to review the effect of excessive withdrawals and recent droughts on groundwater reservoirs of Saveh Plain. The 7 stations were selected between the monthly rainfall data in Saveh plain. In this research, at the time scales of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months for indices CZI, ZSI, MCZI, SPI, the droughts were considered using DIP software. The drop amount of the groundwater level in Saveh aquifer during 22 years (1992-2014) has been approximately 31/86 meters. Statistic of wells during two 10-year periods (1991-2001 and 2001-2011) was taken into account. With two 5-year period, we can conclude that in 1991-1996 years the upper regressed charts and the process is very slow first drop in five years but in the second 5 years has been a steep slope times and in the 2001 to 2011 with the same or slightly steeper slope continues because wells are unauthorized and uncontrolled exploitation. In a review of quality groundwater was used AqQa software that Piper diagram indicates calcic facies is in the study area, and Durov diagram shows a sudden increase in total dissolved solids and close to bicarbonate type that can be due to the formation concerned or leakage from a probable underlying semi-confined aquifer or mixing with another source which requires further reviews.

Evaluation of water quality parameters is very important in knowledge of aquifer-quality conditions, pollution ýsources, and determination the most appropriate management strategies. With regard to role of the wastewater ýand agricultural activities in contamination of groundwater resources such as nitrate and nitrite compounds, water ýsamples were collected from 22 points from urban areas, agricultural lands near residential areas as well as areas ýwith a high density of agricultural activities in Asadabad plain. Sampling and analysis of water samples were ýconducted according to the latest guidelines on standard method. The obtained findings indicate that the mean ýconcentrations of nitrate and nitrite in study area are 19.78 ýþ±þý6.94mg/l and 0.035ýþ±þý0.02 mg/l respectively that by ýtaking 33mg/l and 0.097 mg/l respectively for maximum concentrations of nitrate and nitrite, it can be said that ýpollution by these compounds had been less than the standard limit, while the concentrations of nitrate in urban ýareas and around residential areas reach to 24.53ýþ±þý5.41 mg/l that is indicating the influence of the released urban ýwastewater in these areas. The prepared zoning maps of the two anion and combine them to form a common layer, ýtruly determined increase trend of the two anion concentrations in the urban areas and density of agricultural ýactivities. Thus according to region's conditions, need attention to increased pollution and implementation of ýmanagement plans in line with the pollution control in plain groundwater resources will be felt more than ever

Recent droughts in the unstable and uncontrolled development, especially sharp drop in aquifer has led to a significant reduction in dam's inflow and many dams in Iran do not have the performance that planned at the time of the study. One of the crucial dams to entry severe hypotension, are Karkheh. Karkheh catchment is one of the most important watershed in Iran that there are many dams under construction and under study in it. Thus, accurate planning given the impression in recent years and the decline in groundwater levels, which is essential to consider these studies.
To determine the face of the Karkheh basin water resources development, this basin simulated in MODSIM under various scenarios and the results of it were analyzed. Natural runoff model, where the entrance is, the needs of all dams except for a limited number comes at a high level. In the absence of actual runoff model is input in any of the dams studied, needs are not met. In this case, in order to reduce the need for agricultural, agro-second removed in all dams and a relative increase in the supply of agricultural need were observed.

The lack of complete data should not be the cause for disregarding the hydrological condition and the long-term forecasts for performing a hydrological project in one region. Therefore, various researchers have used different methods such as Ratio Analysis, Fragment, and Thomas-fiering for the reconstruction of incomplete flow data in hydrometric stations. So, in this study, the accuracy of these methods and computerized methods such as, artificial neural network, hybrid wavelet-neural network and support vector machine have been investigated and compared. The results showed that the computerized methods have the higher accuracy than the other three methods. Comparison amongst the computerized methods shows that the artificial neural network method (R^2=0.98,RMSE=6.18,SE=0.476), the support vector machine method (R^2=0.902,RMSE=6.074,SE=0.486) and the hybrid wavelet-neural method (R^2=0.889,RMSE=6.96,SE=0.54) ranking first, second and third, respectively. Although, these three methods of artificial neural network, hybrid wavelet-neural network and support vector machine have not significant difference in comparison with each others, but the support vector machine constructed the data in the less time and with the more ease and hence has an advantage in comparison with the other methods.

This study carried out to estimate monthly rainfall data of Oroumieh that are assumed to be lost from 2006 to 2007 , by classic statistical methods and M5 model tree using the software Weka using Mahabad, Khoy, Salmas, Makoo and Tekab stations . Among the studied stations, Mahabad station (R = 0.90) had the highest correlation with Oroumieh station. 26 scenarios of nearby stations have been introduced to Weka software in estimating monthly precipitation of Oroumieh station that among scenarios, the scenario which was defined as the simplest and most accurate scenario, included three Mahabad, Makoo and Tekab stations with values of (MAE = 7.19, R = 0.90, RMSE = 9.64) because of the lower input parameters to the model. Among the classical methods, the single best estimator (SIB) method has been selected as the best method with the highest correlation coefficient and the lowest error (R = 0.90 , RMSE = 10.51 ,MAE = 7.07). M5 model tree had the best performance in estimating quantities of data (R = 0.91 ,RMSE = 9.94 , MAE = 7.29) and is considered as an alternative and applied method in the calculation of monthly precipitation data due to simple linear and understandable relationships .

Finding sustainable and cost-effective solutions in water resources management is one of the most prominent challenges communities confronting. Urmia lake as one of largest hyper saline lakes has an important strategic position and is one of the most effective factors in the region. While the status of Urmia lake is calamitous, finding management practices to restore a sustainable ecological status of Urmia lake, is vital. In this paper, system dynamics approach was used in order to evaluate the effect of different restoration policies on Urmia Lake. effect of policies such as increasing irrigation efficiency, reduction in cultivated land, changing crop patterns and water transfer from Aras and Zab rivers on the lake was evaluated. The results showed that none of the projects are effective on Urmia Lake restoration individually and the simultaneous implementing of increasing irrigation efficiency, changing crop patterns and reducing cultivated area has the greatest effect on increasing water level of the lake and after about 8 years from applying it Urmia lake can be restored.

flood mitigation and management solutions. The goal of such tools is to simulate probable inundation damage on a given area depending on several flood scenarios with different intensity, duration and return period. Raster-based models have recently gained credence in the modelling of floodplain inundation and flood hydraulics. In this paper, 2D hydraulic model, LISFLOOD-FP, is applied to a 7 km reach of the river Chehlchay in Golestan province to predict floods extent with different return periods. The model is calibrated, for a flood event using floodplain and channel friction parameters, against observed inundation extent as determined from satellite image (in Google Earth). The friction parameters are found through a calibration procedure, where a measure of fit between predicted and observed is maximized. Model validation was performed using a distinct flood event. The measure of fit was obtained in the calibration and validation process 71% and 78%, respectively. Finally, calibrated model was used to predict floods with different return periods.

The salinity of fresh water is one of the serious contamination threat of groundwater in many countries. Garu Spring in the East of Khuzestan province is one of the salty springs in the Zagros zone. Based on field investigations, possible sources of salinity in the region include dissolution of Gachsaran evaporative formation and oilfield brines. To identify the source of salinization in study area, in February and September 2015, 20 samples In order to determine the main elements, and 17 samples to determine Br, were collected from groundwater and surface water resources, and subsequently analyzed. Finally combination diagrams of bicarbonate against calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and the ratio Br / Cl and TDI against chlorine, were used as the best way to separating various origins of the salinity in the area. The results show that the main reason for salinity in the wet season is influx of high volume of Temby river water, and in the dry season is mixing with oil brines.