نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 21 (بهار و تابستان 1395)

Considering the political, social and economic dynamics of the contemporary world, the return of migrants and refugees has become important in recent years. However, despite the mass returns that have taken place in recent decades, the sustainability of these returns has never been guaranteed. This article examines the sustainability of the return of Afghan refugees to their home country from Iran and studies the effects of demographic, contextual and structural factors on their decisions to stay in Afghanistan or re-migrate. For this purpose, a survey of 425 people was conducted in Kabul, Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif cities in 2014. According to the results, the return experience of Afghan refugees from Iran to Afghanistan is not successful and sustainable, as more than half of the returnees are planning to remigrate from the country or are hesitant to stay in Afghanistan. The results of multivariate analysis indicated that such variables as ethnicity, education, marital status, neighbor's composition, duration of migration in Iran, type of return, social satisfaction, feeling of discrimination, and social reintegration levels have a significant effect on staying or re-migrating among the returnees.

The result of censuses show emergence of new current of internal migration with the form of reverse migration. For recognition and better analysis of reverse migration, 12100 reverse migrants in relation to determinants and causes of migration with 23700 metropolis migrants taken from two percent sample of 1390 census have been studied comparatively. Due to the different nature and bio-environmental features of the rural areas and different infrastructure, economic, commercial and political situations of metropolis the reverse migrants who entered rural areas of various states and migrants who entered metropolis (Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Tabriz, Shiraz, Ahvaz and Ghom) have diverse social and economic reasons for their migration. The most difference between the two groups of migrants is due to immigration caused by military service that the percentage for reverse immigrants is much higher than that of immigrants to metropolises. The kind of immigrant job is the most important explanation of probability of occurrence of the type of immigration in this study. Focusing on basic differences of reverse migrants and metropolis migrants and also within each of these migrants, we can propose policies for reasonable spatial distribution of population in rural and metropolitan areas in Iran.

This article presents research-based evidence to examine patterns and determinants associated with childbearing desires in Iran. The sample includes 2878 people aged 15 and above living in the rural and urban areas of Ahvaz, Babolsar, Bojnord, Gonbad Kavos, Mahmoudabad and Hamadan. Generally speaking, the research findings indicate an increasing generational gap in childbearing desires. While such patterns as childlessness and one-child model are not accepted, the two-child model is the most visible pattern of childbearing desire. The findings support the gender convergence suggesting that men and women share close childbearing desires. However, childbearing desires vary substantially by attitudes towards gender roles.

Contemporary social transformations have left individuals in the two ways of freedom in and uncertainty in their choices. Today, childbearing is accompanied by a lot of such contradictions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of these transformations and the risks in the childbearing decision of couples in Rasht, with an emphasis on the theory of Ulrich Beck and Elizabeth Beck-Gransheim. The method of this research was survey and the data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire. The statistical population consisted of all 25-49 years old couples in Rasht. Using stratified sampling method, 383 families were selected as the sample of the study. The findings show that among the women, the variables of decline of traditional values, freedom in choice, education and age at marriage, and among men in addition to these variables, the variable of individuality also contributed to their childbearing and reduced the probability of childbearing. Finally, despite the fact that people face various risks and issues, they are still giving birth to children because of their love in having child. However, in the two ways of childbearing risks and interest in the child, they choose the third route of giving birth to fewer children.

Growth of the population and its impact on economic development is a topic that has long attracted the attention of the experts to the economic and community issues. For many years, economists have come to believe that the factor that ultimately determines the nature and development of societies is the quantity and quality of human power or, in other words, human capital of that country. The effective use of human resources in the process of economic and social development is more than anything related to the level of knowledge, effort and creativity, which depends on the physical and mental health of the members. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of aging on regional and provincial economic growth. For this purpose we have applied the data from statistical center of Iran and the Central Bank in the specified time interval.
The results of model estimation using data panel method during the period of 2011-2014 show that population aging has a negative effect on economic growth. According to the findings of this study, for each unit, the growth rate of the population over 65 years old will decrease to the total population by 0.000455 units of economic growth. Reduction of economic growth will reduce resources and facilities available to people and society as well as reduce the resources and facilities available for public sector and policy making, and will further reduce economic growth

Elderly people are experiencing major changes in their personal and social life structure due to biological, psychological and social changes associated with age during the aging process. In the absence of planning for this stage of life, the elderly and the community will be more or less confronted with the problem.The present study is a qualitative research which has been conducted with the aim of studying the coping strategies of the elderly in dealing with the changes occurring to them. In this regard, we have studied the strategies of coping in 19 elderly men and women aged between 60 and 90 years by applying the Grounded Theory and the technique of deep interviewing. The results of the study show that the transition from old age and trying to survive is most important issue and subjectivity meaning between elderly to cope with changes in their age.The basic premise for the elderly in this area is the adaptation or self-regulation of a person at the biological, psychological and social levels by employing coping strategies such as rethinking interaction with conditions and self-control and choosing a healthy lifestyle to meet the constraints of old age life, weak supporting network and mental burnout.

The working age population, as a potentially productive and active population, is particularly important in economic and demographic studies. However, the epidemiological pattern of mortality and its changes may vary over time with other demographic groups. The goal of this study was to calculate the changes in years of life lost (YLL) in the age group of 15-64 due to the three main causes of death in the country at two periods of time, 2006 and 2015. Required data have been obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education's death record system and YLL is calculated using the WHO standard method. Findings showed that the main causes of mortality and years of life lost of the working age population were different from the general population and other major age groups such as children and aging population in the studied period. In young age groups of working age population, 15- 44 years, unintentional accidents, and at older age groups of this population, 45-64 years, cardiovascular diseases and cancers were prevalent causes of death. The fact that the trend of mortality in the last decade has been such that the percentage share of YLL in cardiovascular disease and unintentional accidents has been reduced, has been a promising result, but on the contrary, increasing the share of deaths and YLL deaths caused by cancers over the past decade is considered alarming.