فهرست مطالب

Iranian Economic Review - Volume:9 Issue: 10, Spring 2004

Iranian Economic Review
Volume:9 Issue: 10, Spring 2004

  • 134 صفحه،
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1382/11/30
  • تعداد عناوین: 8
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  • Zahra Afshari, Iman Sheibani Pages 5-13
    This Paper has used a multisectoral input-output model of Iranian economy to examine the ability of different sectors of economy to create jobs per unit of output as well as capital. The results reveal that there is no conflict in a growth strategy that simultaneously attempts to improve efficiency i.e. reallocating production to sectors with low DRCs, equity and job creation. Although sectoral performance on these measures is not perfectly correlated, but in general we find good performance on equity associated with a relatively high degree of efficiency. The results of this paper led some interesting insights into the debate regarding distributive impact of structural adjustment in Iran. If Iran move closer to free trade regime with undistributed relative prices, it is reasonable to expect that the sectoral allocation of production would be altered in favor of these sectors in which Iran has comparative advantage. The measures of efficiency, domestic resource cost (DRC), provide an important benchmark for measuring comparative efficiency. Thus if Iran were to move closer to free trade, it is reasonable to expect that the composition of production should shift in favor of low DRC sectors. With respect to positive correlation between performance in efficiency (low DRC), employment, and income inequality, this implies that structural adjustment, by shifting the composition of production in favor of low DRC sectors, will contribute to better income distribution.
  • Mahmoud Motavasseli, Shapour Mohammadi Pages 15-38
    Structural changes were the main focus of many studies in recent years. Changes which alter the socio-economic status of a nation from deprived and traditional nature to a developed and modern one. The main hypothesis of this study is that, the economic development does not occur through a regular flow of life (linear fashion), and without resilience, but it certainly needs to pass through a momentum and exceed a minimum threshold. We apply catastrophe and other theories to show the nonlinearity and jump in the economic growth path. Empirical results of the catastrophe models imply that sudden jumps and nonlinearity is a case for NICs economic growth. The CUSP model is a superior one among the other catastrophe models which verifies the nonlinearity of the growth path. In addition to more than 500 regressions with different control variables in each regression for individual countries, some panel regression for all countries data confirms validity of individual results. Chaos models in logistic form results in negative Lyapunov exponent but not significant statistically which cant be reliable. However, Lyapunov exponent estimation by means of Matlab gives negative exponent that are reliable for some of the countries. Terasvirta and White nonlinearity test reject linearity in growth path for Singapore and Thailand. Also jump test agree with our hypothesis which involve with existence of sudden jumps in growth path for all of NICs. Having these results, the policy prescriptions for LDCs could be; targeting nonlinear growth path in development plans, and appealing to foreign resources as well as constructive changes in institutions, polity and incentive structure.
  • Mehdi Pedram Pages 39-45
    The Purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run effect of real effective exchange rate on Iran non-oil trade balance. The methodology is based on ARDL procedure that can be applied irrespective of whether the regressors are I (0) or I (1). The results show the real depreciation has not a favorable long - run effect on the non-oil trade balance of Iran from 1979 to 2001.
  • Hossein Pirasteh, Farzad Karimi Pages 47-72
    advanced industrial countries to give concessions to developing economies regarding tariff and non-tariff barriers on agricultural commodity imports, the ongoing initiatives in Northern hemisphere to establish new and wider free trading areas which will divert trade out of the market from Asian countries, ineffectiveness of deepening and widening existing regional trading blocs in Asia, the only promising avenue for Asian developing economies to expand agricultural trade and increase economic welfare of the majority of their population engaging in agricultural production is to resort to extensive regional integration and cooperation. However, to be successful, all countries in the continent must adhere to the principle of comparative advantage as the engine of regional integration. Further, agricultural resources must be spatially allocated among local, national and regional geographic boundaries according to their natural resource endowments and comparative advantage in production and trade, so as to maximize the benefits of specialization. It is through this allocation arrangement that regional economic integration will be to the benefit of the people in Asia.
  • Mohammad Hossein Pour Kazemi Pages 73-87
    The control problem and Dynamic programming is a powerful tool in economics and management. We review the dynamic programming problem from its beginning up to its present stages. A problem which was involved in physics and mathematics in 17th century led to a branch of mathematics called calculus of variation which was used in economic, and management at the end of the first quarter of the 20th century. This branch of Mathematics stated its actual development under the name control problem from the second half of 20th century. Its solution was made possible through the dynamic programming method, and maximum principle. Experts in economics and management started using these methods. Then In various works from the 1970s. The stochastic optimum control was used. In this paper we will consider from the first article in maximizing the profit of a firm up to its recent applications in economics and management.
  • Seyed Javad Pourmoghim Pages 89-101
    Iran is one of the biggest oil producer and exporter of the world.Due to the special administrative and constitutional structure of thecountry, i.e. economic, social and political reasons, the governmentbudget and revenues depend heavily on oil exports.The aim of this article is to suggest a theoretical proposal on the optimum level of non-oil exports such that it will clear up the idea of export promotion of non-oil exports and being" independent of oil revenues" not only for official authorities, but also be appropriate and meaningful for the economic agents to continue the proper activities. In order to reduce oil revenues a level of non-the dependence on oil exports should be considered such that the expected costs of holding this level are minimized. This optimum level has been analyzed with the selected strategy arising from the administrative and legal structures. The optimum level with respect to a benchmark was estimated, and finally analyzed and compared the relationship between the actual level and the optimum level of non-oil exports.
  • Teymur Rahmani, Hans Friedrich Eckey Pages 103-119
    Convergence hypothesis is one of the results of neoclassical growth model, which has been examined recently. This hypothesis has two forms of absolute and conditional Beta-convergence and implies that regions with lower per capita output have higher per capita growth rates. Since there is no data for regional GDP in Iran, there has been no study to test convergence hypothesis in Iran. Our main contribution in this paper is testing convergence by using the data of demand deposits of Iran's provinces and examining convergence in per capita demand deposits on the base of endogenous demand deposits creation theory in real business cycles approach. Our empirical results have provided some support for Beta-convergence in Iran's regional growth when OLS is used. But our results do not support Sigma-convergence or decrease in regional inequality.
  • Hamid Zangeneh Pages 121-133
    The history of monetary policy in Iran, judging by their performance in keeping the value of the currency, maintaining a steady growth in the Gross Domestic Product, faltering investment, show that monetary policy has not been a portrait of consistent successes, to say the least. As a result of the recent studies two rules have emerged as guideline for policy makers: Taylor rule and McCallum rule. This study finds using the McCallum rule for monetary policy improves its outcome.