فهرست مطالب

Iranian Economic Review - Volume:16 Issue: 31, Winter 2012

Iranian Economic Review
Volume:16 Issue: 31, Winter 2012

  • 160 صفحه،
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1391/05/15
  • تعداد عناوین: 8
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  • Amir Reza Soori, Ahmad Tashkini Pages 1-12
    In this paper we revisited the recent contribution study which examines the determinants of bilateral trade between Iran and Europe Union, ECO, GCC and ASEAN countries in the period 1995-2009, using a panel data approach. The findings indicate that Iran’ trade flows follow the Linder hypothesis, while the bilateral trade is associated with Heckscher- Ohlin- Samuelson theorem. Results show that geographical distance is negative and significant; trade will increase if the transportation costs decreases. We also introduce the economic dimension and income percapita; these proxies confirm the positive effects on bilateral trade. Our results also confirm the hypothesis that foreign direct investment (FDI) is positively correlated with the trade.
    Keywords: Bilateral Trade, Regional Blocs, Dynamic Panel Data, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Dimension
  • Ali Taiebnia, Gity Shakeri Pages 13-31
    Oil revenues and the effect exerted on the economic climate have long captured the researchers’ attention. Drawing on the importance of oil in oil producing countries, this study taps into the impact of a rise in oil prices on different economic sectors, including manufacturing, agriculture and service. To this end, the study has tested the following hypotheses within the framework of Dutch disease theory: oil price rise diminishes agriculture’s and industry’s share of the total gross domestic product (GDP), yet it augments that of the service sector. To assess the proposed hypotheses, a couple of channels through which the natural resource abundance could exert influence on the countries’ economy are addressed along with Dutch disease theory (as one of the channels) before estimating an econometric model with panel data for 10 oil producing countries and 10 non-oil producing countries over a 14-year period from 1993 to 2007 inclusive. The results revealed that oil price rise over the period has diminished the manufacturing’s, agriculture’s and, services’ value added share of GDP in oil producing countries. However, no similar pattern was observed for non-oil producing countries.
    Keywords: oil Price, Industry Sector, Dutch Disease, Resource Curse
  • Abolghasem Mahdavi, Hoora Majderezaee Pages 33-69
    Iranian economy has had a long history of development efforts. It’s now more than sixty years passed from the official attempts in development of the country through the so called economic, social, and cultural development plans. Iran has of course gained the fruits of modern economic era to some extent. However as a fact of observation, Iranian economy has not experienced a sustained economic growth during these many years of the attempts for economic development. The important question is why? This article introduces the framework of a model that intends to clarify the fundamental impediments of Iranian sustainable economic growth and tries to provide an answer, as reasonable as the constraints of the model permits. The model, maintaining the message of H-R-V model, extends it to the Iranian economic growth in a broader perspective. While we recognize the pathology of price distortions and activist policies, we observe the Iranian main development problems on some important binding constraints. In fact in this expanded perspective, instead of governments, the lives of whom are short, “governance”- be it in a market or a non market economy- is at the center of the attention.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Private Investment, Entrepreneurship, HRV Model, Binding Constraint
  • Seyed Komail Tayebi, Leila Torki Pages 71-84
    This paper explores effects of financial liberalization on macroeconomic volatilities (such as economic growth, real exchange rate and exchange rate pass through) in developing countries. It also examines the interaction between such volatilities in a theoretical and empirical framework of a macro-model. To this end, we have used data of 43 developing economies over the period of 1996- 2005, and then estimated a panel-simultaneous equation system to find out the effects of financial liberalization on macroeconomic volatilities. Empirical results show a significant inverse effect of financial liberalization on economic growth volatility. But effects of the financial liberalization on the volatilities of real exchange rate and exchange rate pass-through have been positive and significant as expected. Furthermore, the results show that such volatilities have a significant interacted relationship.
    Keywords: Financial Liberalization, Macroeconomic Volatilities, Developing Countries, Panel, Simultaneous Equations
  • Saeed Rasekhi, Shideh Shojaee Pages 85-99
    Regarding few studies of intra industry trade in the agricultural sector, this study have examined country-specific determinants of intra industry trade of agriculture in selected developing countries by using panel technique for trade data at 6-digit level of HS classification over time period 2001-2007. By employing Greenaway, Hine and Milner and Fontagné and Freudenberg approaches we’ve first divided intra industry trade into its types that is horizontal and vertical ones. Then, based on theoretical and empirical studies, we’ve estimated determinants of the types of intra industry trade. Overall and based on the results, it seems that the level of development and growth (Human development index) has a significant positive effect on intra industry trade of agriculture in countries under study. Also, the revealed comparative advantage has a significant positive effect on vertical intra industry trade and a significant negative effect on the horizontal intra industry trade in agricultural commodity groups. However, there is no definite result on the effect of exchange rate and trade openness.
    Keywords: Intra Industry Trade Types, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Human Development, Exchange Rate, Agricultural Sector, Developing Countries
  • Zahra Dehghani, Nematollah Akbari, Rahim Dalali Esfahani Pages 101-121
    The three basic concepts which are fundamental to the framework of this study are the 3Ds –Density, Distance and Division. These Variables was introduced by World Development Report 2009.Population Density refers to the Population mass per unit of land area, or the geographic compactness of population. Distance refers to the ease or difficulty for goods, services, labor, capital, information, and ideas to traverse space. Distance, in this sense, is an economic concept, not just a physical one. Division is the most important dimension internationally. Religion, ethnicity, and language are among the main attributes that lead to divisions between places. Thus, the main aim of this paper is analysis of the effect of population density, economic distance and division on regional economic growth. For this aim, this study was proposed a simple theoretical framework to study the impact of population density, economic distance and division on regional economic growth. The framework has presented in a unified way the main insights of NEG models with endogenous growth and free capital mobility.
    Keywords: Population Density, Division, Economic Distance
  • Ahmad Jafari Samimi, Yosof Essazadeh Roshan Pages 123-145
    In this paper, we investigate empirically the effect of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and monetary shocks as sources of business cycle in the economy of Iran. We follow of Gali's (1999) who proposes identifying technology shocks by a bivariate structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model consisting of labor productivity growth and working hours. We expand bivariate model into the four-variable model by using annual data covering the period of 1974 - 2008. Therefore, the nontechnology shocks decomposed into labor supply and monetary shocks. The technology shocks also decomposed into two sector-neutral technologies and the investment-ICT shocks. Additionally, we also employed simulating variance decompositions (VDC) and impulse response functions (IRF) for further inferences. Weve reached to this point that productivity-enhancing ICT shocks reduce working hours and increase Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Although productivity-enhancing technology shocks are an important source of economic growth in Iran, they may have a negative impact on employment.
    Keywords: ICT Shocks, Monetary Shocks SVAR, Impulse Response, Variance Decomposition
  • Javad Torkamani, Ali Hosein Samadi, Sanaz Mansouri Pages 147-159
    There have been few studies working on effects of financial repression policies on Iran’s economic growth. Considering the huge share of agricultural sector, we have been trying fill this gap by the help of time series data from 1962 to 2007 on agricultural GDP, unproductive government expenditures, human capital, industrial price index, political instability, and financial repression measurements. Results show that bank reserve requirement control policies as a proxy for financial repression measure, has negative effect which reminds reducing controls on this parameter will help government achieve higher rate of growth.
    Keywords: Financial Repression, agricultural growth, Iran