Iranian Economic Review
Volume:7 Issue: 7, Summer 2002

This paper tests the importance of real shocks as sources of fluctuations in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, based on the work of Boschen and Mills, a set of non-monetary variables which can affect economic growth have been selected and by using an illustrative business cycle model in which the production depends on the past and current value of real shocks, the influence of these variables have been studied. Based on the obtained results, the selected non-monetary variables have had a significant effect on the business cycles in Iran at the time period of 1959-1999, and introducing the monetary variables into a model with the presence of real variables have not increased the explanatory power of the model considerably.

Alternative theoretical perspectives have been presented to explain internationally effective factors affecting immigration. For example, the orthodox explanation of migration is based on the concept of wage differentials as an important factor of international immigration. The world system approach declines to interpret theoretically international migration as a phenomenon between independent national economies and the world system approach studies it in relation to the development of the modern capitalist world-economy. The Job-Labor- Reward Hierarchy approach relates international labor migration to the hierarchical structure of production in the division of labor on a world scale. It seems that the globalization phenomenon affects these approaches exactly, because it removes the geographic, economic and social boundaries domestically and internationally generates a new international labor force migration flow in which social welfare is an important factor. In this paper, the roll of social welfare has been considered as an important factor of the international labor force between globally convergent countries.

Stochastic, processes can be stationary or nonstationary. They depend on the magnitude of shocks. In other words, in an auto regressive model of order one, the estimated coefficient is not constant. Another finding of this paper is the relation between estimated coefficients and residuals. We also develop a catastrophe and chaos theory for change of roots from stationary to a nonstationary one and vice versa.

Since 1960s and the following financial crisis in developing countries, a wide research has been conducted on financial capability of states in repayment of their debts. Though having been considered at various importance levels during the past decades, this subject seems to have today become a controversial issue in economic discourses. In principle, three indices are applied to determine the capacity of government revenues: the development degree, the degree of monetarization, and the level of national economy’s interaction with the global economy. No general consensus exists on the variables manifesting their effects. In time, more other factors turned up to be studied and models embraced eye-catching advancement owing to more precise econometric measures. In this essay it has been attempted to discuss these factors and models.

In this article, demand equations for import of consumer, intermediate and capital goods, for the period 1971 (2) to 1999 (1), is estimated and analyzed, using the ARDL Pesaran & Shin method. The results show that the behavior of the different categories of imported goods in Iran is best explained by the parallel market exchange rate, implying this rate is a closer approximation for the opportunity cost of importers, despite their access to foreign exchange at official or controlled rates.