فهرست مطالب

Iranian Economic Review - Volume:20 Issue: 45, Autumn 2016

Iranian Economic Review
Volume:20 Issue: 45, Autumn 2016

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1395/10/06
  • تعداد عناوین: 8
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  • Alireza Shakibaei, Mohammadreza Ahmadinejad* Pages 445-460
    tructural change is defined as a change in the relative weight of the important constituents of the macro-economic indicator such as production, taxes, imports and exports, workforce etc. Since the structure change is one of the main reasons for the growth and economic development of countries, the investigation of the trend of changes in economic important constituents is important. Tax as an important source of state revenue is one of the most significant macro-economic indicators; furthermore it is the most important instrument of the state’s fiscal policy. So due to the important position of tax in the countries’ economy, evaluating the trend of changes in the tax structure is of paramount importance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the structural changes of taxes in Iran, by Bai and Perron method, for the period 1971-2012. The results based on the UDmax and WDmax tests show that there is at least one breakpoint in the movement process of all taxes in Iran; also based on the sequential procedure all breaks have not lead to the structural changes and Iran have not had the structure changes in income tax.
    Keywords: Structural Breaks, Tax Structure Changes, Bai, Perron Method, Iran. JEL Classification: H20, H11, C22
  • Ekundayo Peter Mesagan*, Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi, Nsofor Chinedu Stanley Pages 461-478
    Globalization is a worldwide phenomenon. The concept globalization is a very recent term only establishing its current meaning in the 1970s, which emerged from the intersection of four inter related sets of communities of practice, academics, journalists, publishers. This paper models the channels through which globalization affects financial sector development in Nigeria. To this end this study examines the data for these variables used in this study for the period (1987-2014). The results obtained in this study have established that globalization has a significant effect on financial sector development in Nigeria. Higher pace of globalization is found to be associated with a good financial system in Nigeria and it also serves as a stimulant for the economy. The study calls for an enabling environment for the financial system as well as interest rate targeting to encourage more financial in-flow.
    Keywords: Globalization, Financial Development, Error Correction, Nigeria
  • Sahar Motamedi *, Mansour Zarra, Nezhad Pages 479-500
    In this study, a macro-economic model consisting of twelve behavioral equations and fourteen identity equations was estimated with the aim of investigating the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies set out in the fourth and fifth development plans. In the estimated model, the variables of development expenditures, current expenditures and tax revenues are used as fiscal policy tools and variables of liquidity and long-term interest rates of bank were used as monetary policy tools. The results of solving the model using a dynamic simulation showed that by the implementation of this scenario, one can achieve a steady growth rate for model’s endogenous variables during the period and reduce its deviation from target values. Then, a fuzzy control system was designed with the aim of minimizing deviations and changes in the deviation of non-oil GDP from the values determined in the fourth and fifth development plans. Liquidity variables and government development expenditures were used as control tools in this system. Results obtained from the fuzzy system showed that using control rules, the growth rate of liquidity can be put at a lower level and growth rate of development expenditure around quantified targeted values in the fourth and fifth development plans. Also, the oscillation amplitude of the inflation and growth rates of non-oil production can also be reduced.
    Keywords: Fiscal, Monetary Policy, Fourth, Fifth Development Plants, Simulation, Fuzzy Control Methods
  • Saeed Rasekhi *, Zahra Mila Elmi, Milad Shahrazi Pages 501-523
    This paper investigates the existence of possible spillover effects among four main asset markets namely foreign exchange, stock, gold, and housing markets in Iran from 2002:03 to 2015:06. For this purpose, we have exploited Sigma-Point Kalman Filter (SPKF) to extract the bubble component of assets prices in the aforementioned Markets. Then, in order to analyze the price bubbles spillover amongst asset markets, we have taken several measures. First, we performed a pairwise Granger test. Afterwards, for the sake of studying the shock effects of the bubbles, a multivariate time series model in the form of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system has been implemented. Based on the results of Pairwise Granger Causality test, the assets bubbles have a causality relation amongst each other. Furthermore, the outcomes of impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis derived from the estimation of VAR model implies on the existence of bubbles spillover among asset markets.
    Keywords: Bubbles Spillover, Asset Markets, Sigma, Point Kalman Filter, VAR. JEL Classification: C32, E44, G12
  • Behnam Najafzadeh*, Mohammadreza Monjazeb, Siab Mamipour Pages 525-550
    Stock returns of companies listed on the stock exchange is one of the most important criteria in assessing the macroeconomic. This study investigates the effect of exchange rate Volatility on the stock exchange Returns of D8 countries. It takes monthly data during the period (2008:1-2015:6) constituting 90 observations. At first we used Panel-GARCH model to estimate Exchange Rate Volatility Index, and then we used Panel data method to investigate the effect of index on the stock exchange return of D8 countries. Simulation results show that exchange rate volatility affects positively and significantly on stock exchange return in four countries, namely Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia and Bangladesh. The variables of oil price, real interest rate, inflation rate, real exchange rate and gold price have been utilized for model analysis. Results show that the variables of real exchange rate and inflation rate have negative effects but oil price has positive effect on stock returns, while interest rate and gold price do not have any significant effect.
    Keywords: Stock Returns, Exchange Rate Volatility, D8 Countries, PANEL, GARCH Model. JEL Classification: E44, E32, F31, C33
  • Hossein, Ali Fakher * Pages 551-579
    The relationship between public sector deficits and inflation is one of the important and controversial issues in the academic literature as well as in economic policy field. On the other hand, a major objective of macroeconomic policies is to foster economic growth and to keep inflation on a low level. So keeping the price stability plays an important role in determining the growth rate of output. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of budget deficit, broad money supply, real GDP, import price index, interest rate and exchange rate on inflation ( price deflator) in selected Asian economics, namely China, Japan, Korea, India, Taiwan, and Singapore in the period of 1993-2013. By applying the Pooled Mean Group estimation-based error correction model and the panel differenced (General Method of Moment) Arellano-Bond estimator, the study finds out budget deficit, real GDP and exchange rate are statistically significant determinants of inflation in both methods of estimation.
    Keywords: Inflation (Price Deflator), Fiscal Deficit, Broad Money Supply, Estimation, Differenced Panel Estimator, Asian Economies. JEL Classification: C12, C23, E31, E63
  • Mirhadi Hosseini Kondelaji *, Majid Sameti, Hadi Amiri, Rozita Moayedfar Pages 581-598
    While economic deterrence models are fully based on maximizing economic utility; social psychology models explain human behavior by examining the underlying attitudes, norms and beliefs. Tax morale is defined as the intrinsic motivation to pay taxes. However, determinants of tax morale need to be investigated for a more comprehensive understanding of tax morale. In this paper we analyze the most important determinants of tax morale in Iran using data from World Values Surveys (WVS). Determinants of tax morale are categorized into four main groups: social capital, conditional cooperation, demographic factors and economic situation of the respondents. Estimating ordered probit model, we find that conditional cooperation and economic situation have the most important effects on tax morality. However, some of the social capital variables like importance of politics and religion and demographic factors like gender and marital status don’t have significant effect on tax morale in Iran.
    Keywords: Tax Morale, Tax Evasion, Ordered Probit Model, World Value Survey (WVS)
  • Farida Farida*, Hermanto Siregar, Nunung Nuryartono, Eka Intan K.P Pages 599-615
    People’s business credit program (KUR) has been launched to alleviate poverty through provision of micro financing to micro entrepreneurs in Indonesia This study aims to estimate the impact of KUR program using cross-sectional data and propensity score matching technique (PSM). The survey was conducted on 332 household entrepreneurs, consisting of 155 KUR receivers and 177 non-KUR receivers. Results show that KUR has impacts on increasing profits, total revenues, number of employees, and asset ownerships. KUR program also has impacted on reduction of food spending share. As such, KUR can play an important role to alleviate poverty and unemployment.
    Keywords: Micro financing, Households, Poverty, Cross, sectional, Propensity Score Matching. JEL Classification: F61, H31, I32, C21