فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 2 (بهار 1390)

Oil price fluctuations are one of the most important causes of economic crisis among both oil exporting and importing countries. Hence, study of oil price shocks on economy of oil exporting countries which oil revenues is the intensive generator is so vital. In this study, the effect of oil shocks on economic growth in selected OPEC member countries is studied; at first oil price shocks are extracted by Hodrick-Prescott filtering and then the effect of oil shocks on regarded variables are estimated by Vector Auto-regressive Model (VAR). The result of regression analysis show that Emirate and Iran are the most dependent to oil shocks; Indonesia and Ecuador is the least dependent. The experience of Indonesia shows that decreasing in oil dependence is not possible without taking correct policies.

The most attended aspect of the modern economics is its structure which relies heavily on knowledge and awareness. In this competitive world, paying attention to knowledge and relying on innovation is what makes institutions and macro economics pioneers. In the early 20th century, Joseph Schumpeter and later almost all theoreticians came to believe that the emergence of a phenomenon called job creators or in other words innovative job creators played significant roles in the economic development process4 and, in Schumpeter’s opinion, something that makes these people stand out is their innovation power particularly in new combinations. With regard to the deep technological gap between the developed and developing countries, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is one way to transfer modern technologies to the developing countries where these innovations could be applied through this transfer. Since the arrival of foreign direct investment to the developing countries brings about spillovers resulting in innovation expansion in these countries. In this article, the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) spillovers on innovation in developing countries are dealt with, considering that the panel data5 are arranged in the Pool method for the developing countries where the innovation information have been accessible.

The process of skilled international migration from developing countries to developed ones has considerably grown during two recent decades. In 1970s, most economists agreed brain drain resulted in reducing human capital stock and thus hurt developing economies. However, according to the studies of the recent decades, positive effects of brain drain on the source economies have been controversial. In this paper, it is tried to explore the effect of brain drain on economic growth of source developing countries. More than 90 percent of skilled emigrants of the world live in 30 of OECD countries, while more than 90 percent out of this live in the U.S., England, Canada, German, Australia and France. Accordingly, this paper explores the effect of brain drain on economic growth of 79 developing countries where skilled people have immigrated to the target countries during 1991 to 2004. To this purpose, the paper has examined the effect by specifying a panel growth regression model. The empirical results have shown that the effect of brain drain on human capital stock of the source countries has been negative and significant, while its direct effect on the economic growth of such countries has not been statistically significant. It implies that brain drain reduces the economic growth of the selected developing countries by reducing their human capital stock.

Relationship between economic growth and export growth from the perspective of macro economic and political issues is important. gricultural exports have a significant share of non-oil exports which enjoy a remarkable position in exchange. According to the importance of agriculture sector, in this study important and efficient factors of growth & development of agriculture sector are investigated and then the side and influence of each variable is estimated and analyzed by using econometrics and statistical time series techniques. So Feder applied model estimation is chosen. The model is estimated by Co-integration techniques and error correction mechanism using time series data (1355-1388). The results show that agriculture export index has a positive influence on added value index in this sector.

In the history of human societies, Education Institution has been thought of a key factor in human life and development. In Iran, Both before and after Islam, Education and culture have been considered as fundamental tools for human life exaltation. In Islamic republic of Iran’s law, development of education and increasing social welfare are of particular interest. Many scholars believe that, one of the effective ways out of poverty is human capital development. The aim of this investigation is to assess the role of Education in Iranian households’ consumption behavior. To this end, the budget survey of Iranian statistical centre was used to calculate indices such as: share of education in Iranian households’ expenditure and income elasticity of education demand. The results of this study indicate that education is a necessary service. Another important finding is that education expenditure in urban areas is significantly more than rural areas.

Oil industry is one of the biggest and most influential industries all over the world, especially in Iran. Besides being the main source of energy in today’s world, oil plays an important role in determining a country’s national power and international credibility. The oil sector has provided the majority of income for many years in Iran and in fact, this sector plays the main role in the country’s economy. Also, with regard to the fact that developing countries have limited resources and unlimited needs and cannot develop all the economical sectors at the same time, they should give priority to key sectors. This study attempted to identify the key sectors and scrutinize the oil industry as an important and a key sector in Iran’s economy, through Input-Output table of 1380 (Iran's last Input-Output table) which was aggregated into 34 sectors. The sensitivity of dispersion index and the variance index of the oil industry were 1.027 and 0.17 respectively which indicate that the relationship between this industry and the other sectors is well above the average of whole sectors and this relation is distributed evenly among the other sectors. If the oil industry is removed from the output sum, 119219783 Rials (Leontief model) and 137162804 Rials (ghosh model) would be lost in production. Also, 130618 (Leontief model) and 344108 (ghosh model) job opportunities would be lost. Concerning total output elasticity, the oil industry ranks 4(among 34 sectors) and this shows that this industry is very important and has an increasingly role in total output. But Concerning total employment elasticity, it ranks 23. In addition, the oil industry has the highest costs for job opportunities up to 880721697 Rials.

In the study, the function of private investment is estimated to examine the effect of security on the kind of investment in Iran. The study in time series 1363 – 87 with help of the model auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) was done. The results showed that security investment in short term and long term has signification effect on private investment. The effect is more in long term compared with short term. So one unit increase in investment risk rate, in short term and long term cause the decrease in private investment 0.42 and 1.88 milliard rials respectively.