فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 31 (تابستان 1397)

Inflation, unemployment, stagnation in production, budget deficit and exchange rate fluctuations, are the factors that governments have always sought to control them in order to achieve the three goals of allocation, distribution and economic stability. Economists now accept that economic stability is a prerequisite for continuing high economic growth. The current study, using the VAR model, tries to explore the effects and consequences of economic instability on the major macroeconomic sectors’economic growth in Iran during the 1981-2013 periods. In this study, using the principle components analysis (PCA), an indicator of economic instability was built and then the impact of this indicator on economic growth of Iran was examined. The findings show that only the importance of labor in the Agricultural sector but in other sectors more than other variables, physical capital is the more important in explaining economic growth. In all sectors of macroeconomics, variable economic instability negative impact on economic growth in the sector. Four parts macroeconomic indicator of economic instability in the analysis of variance, respectively, in the fields of Industry and Minerals, Services, Agriculture and Oil and Gas exploration is more important. The authorities should pay particular attention to the economic recovery and to reduce volatility and shocks in the economy to increase economic growth.

The study of the effect of monetary shocks through monetary policy Transmission Mechanism is one of the topics in the macroeconomic field that is divided into two main polepoints of the neoclassical (demand side) and nonnoclassical (supply side) perspective, Researchers in different countries have studied effects of monetary shocks through these channels on macroeconomics, But in domestic studies, the lack of simultaneous attention to the money neutarlity in the long run and the asymmetry of positive and negative shocks in the presence of monetary policy transmission mechanism is one of the main weaknesses in the discussion. This article is intended to fill this research gap with Using the seasonal data of Iran's economy during the period of 1369 to 1395, to study the effect of monetary shocks through transmission channels on production. For this purpose, using the Markov switching model, negative and positive shocks were extracted. Then, the results of the used model by auto regressive distributed lags method showed that; The three-channel exchange rate, housing prices and credits are incapable of transferring the effects of monetary policy in the long run, These findings validate long-term monetary neutrality. also Despite these channels, there is asymmetry between positive and negative shocks, Also the credit chanel has a stronger role in transferring the monetary policy effects on the economy of Iran than the two other channels.

In this paper, for analysis of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import prices, a structural dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used and exchange rate is considered as an endogenous variable not exogenous. Therefor we can calculate exchange rate pass-through conditional on each shock. The advantage of this approach is that it shows to policy makers that ERPT conditional on each shock is different and policy maker should take the cause of the change, into account. Hence a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Iran is presented and calibrated. Then by impulse response functions, ERPT conditional on different shocks (technology, oil revenues, foreign output, money demand, foreign interest rates and monetary policy shocks) has derived. Also, a test for the effects of the changes in variance of each shock on the degree of conditional ERPT has been performed. The standard deviations of the shocks affect the scale of the impulse-response functions, but not their shape. This means that the relative magnitude of these responses and conditional measures of pass-through will not be altered by changes in the variance of the shocks.

The trade balance is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and the macroeconomic strategic constraints for developing countries. The main target of this paper is study the effect of savings rate on the trade balance. According the article target we used time series data of Iranian macroeconomic variables during 1960-2015 with Application of fuzzy regression approach and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag. The results of Fuzzy regression approach shows that savings rate and GDP per capita has a positive effect on the trade balance in the short term and long term. In the other hand the real effective exchange rate Degree of trade openness has a negative effect on the trade balance in long term. Also The results of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag approach shows that savings rate, trade openness and GDP per capita has a positive effect on the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance. The other results improve that: error correction coefficient shows that 93 present of unbalanced short term adjusted to achieving long term balance. According to the results of research to reduce the trade deficit, an increase in gross domestic savings can be one of the important policy recommendations.

Macro-economic relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth has long been considered by economists. In this study to evaluate the more accurate effect of the government's fiscal policy in the economy, Using quarterly data for the years 1367 to 1395, using A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model with time varying parameter model (TVP), Iran's economy has been modeling. The variables as GDP growth, investment growth, inflation, exchange rates, the growth of private consumption expenditure and latent variable of government fiscal policies arrived in model. Based on results the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in the whole period is positive and investment increased the rate of economic growth. Also the additive positive effects of fiscal policy on the unofficial exchange rate has increased over time. In addition, the effect of fiscal policy on inflation is positive, so that the additive effect in economic prosperity period is more. Finally, the effect of fiscal policy on private sector spending is negative. Results of this study show change relationships between variables over time and the effects of economic conditions on How to impact of model variables on each other. So that monetary policy along with fiscal policy as a factor in the change of fiscal policies on the economy has acted.

Household consumption expenditures one of the main economic variables that reflect the households’ welfare level as well as stimulate aggregate demand and purpose of all production in the economy. Therefore, measuring the income shocks transmission to household consumption is critical for evaluation the ability of consumption smoothing with income shocks or economic stability and hence, for designing stabilization, income-maintenance and optimal social policies in the aim to increasing purchasing power, preserving and promoting the welfare of households. According to the terms of stagflation in Iran economy over the past few years, this paper computes the degree of transmission of temporary and permanent income shocks to using the panel data on the income, meal consumption expenditures and other household characteristics (Age, gender, education, working status and marital status) gathered by Iranian urban and rural households’ expenditures and Income Surveys (HEIS) over the period 1388-1393. The results show that there is nearly complete insurance against temporary and permanent income during the period of study.

The inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate is known as Okun’s law in the economic literature. According to the importance of Okun's law on economic policy, investigating the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth is very important at provincial level. Also, with regard to labor mobility between provinces based on economic conditions, spatial and spillover effects are essential in regional studies; therefore, the main objectives of this paper are to investigate Okun's law in Iran's provinces with spatial econometric approach and whether Okun’s law can be used as a rule of thumb for surveying the labor market response to changes in regional economic growth, in Iran's provinces. A panel data set for 30 provinces during period of 2005 to 2013. The results show that unemployment rates and economic growth of provinces have spatial dependence and labor market performance is influenced by macroeconomic situation and its features the economic situation in neighboring provinces. Hence, in this study spatial panel is employed to investigate Okun’s law. The results of spatial panel (SAC) approve accuracy of Okun's law in Iran's provinces; and the development of regional labor market is not limited to the provincial borders and spillovers to other provinces.

The widespread progress on capital account liberalization and the massive increase in financial flows across the borders, have stimulated a lively debate on the broad economic effects of financial openness.
This paper contributes to the debate by assessing whether financial openness facilitates per-capita income catching-up across countries in Iran and the developing countries? As the current wave of globalization has generated widespread interest among national policymakers on the factors and policies that best promote economic integration, the paper provides empirical evidence on whether financial openness should be included among such policies by focusing on the dimensions that most critically characterize the process of economic integration, namely income convergence?
The key results of the analysis can be summarized as follows:Financial openness, financial integration and internal financial development, significantly facilitates per-capita income catching-up, but the role of internal financial development are more than two other variables.

The investigation of relationship between real exchange rate volatility regime and FDI is one of the main issues in macroeconomics and has been considered empirically in recent years. Economic activity in the world and in every moment of life is faced with a variety of risks and uncertainty. Through of the uncertainty, it can be noted that the phenomenon of real exchange rate risk. This study intends to investigate the impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on foreign direct investment with annual data and during the 1974-2016, by using a Markov switching on Iran deal. The results suggest that, real GDP as an indicator of the size of economy and trade openness have a positive and significant effect, real exchange rate has a positive impact on foreign direct investment in Iran. On the other hand, Risk indicators in the country in both medium- and low-risk diet has a negative impact on foreign direct investment. Both effects are somewhat alike. This result is indicative of the fact that Iran's economy can clearly be seen as a source of financing, targets stable economic. In order to attract foreign direct investment only legislation and the creation of free trade zones is not enough. And decreasing country risk and the improvement in the overall economic, political as well as the political environment for big investors in the country is essential to achieve this.

Barro (1990) by adding government spending into the growth models showed that the amount of government activities have a positive impact on economic growth, But if government spending is increased over a certain size, government activities will have a negative impact on economic growth. In this direction, this paper by using theoretical Barro growth model and an empirical model for Iranian economy tries to investigate the impact of current and capital government expenditure on output growth using ARDL approach and state-space models applying quarterly data during 1967-2014. First, using Lumsdaine-Papell (1997) unit root test and Gregory-Hansen (1996) and Saikkonen and Lutkepohl (2002) cointegration test we determine the degree of integration and cointegration of the variables. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in the variables under study and these breaks affect the relationship between variables. Then we use ARDL model, considering structural breaks, to determine threshold level for current government expenditure which is 15.2 percent and for capital government expenditure which is 8.2 percent of GDP per head. Regarding Lucas theoretical critique and empirical structural breaks in the Iranian economy, we use state space model to investigate relationship between growth and the government size and the results indicate that coefficients are not stable during time and they behave differently regarding the source of the shock.