فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 25 (زمستان 1395)

International outsourcing and intermediate goods trade as a signal of economic globalization have been in progress, one of the benefits of technology transfer, acquire foreign technology with higher efficiency, as technology spillovers author to increased productivity of local firms and technology transfer spillovers. In this study, an objective is to investigate the effects of international outsourcing, high-tech capital, foreign direct investment spillovers and capital stock of R&D on total factor productivity in selected high-tech industries in Iran. we have specified a theoretical framework, and then estimated its empirical version by the panel data econometric method for the selected high-tech industries in Iran during the period (2000-2012). The results show that the estimated coefficient of international outsourcing (OS) is statistically significant at the 5% of significance level. The results also indicate a significant positive effect of high-tech capital and FDI spillovers on total factor productivity in the selected Iran’s high-tech industries. However, the results show that the R&D capital stock has not been statistically significant in the estimated total factor productivity equation for such industries

Is economic growth affected by Post-Keynesian Economists Theory? Is it possible to overcome economic recession in Iran using the Post-Keynesian approach? According to the Post-Keynesian point of view, the economic growth is either wage-led or profit led. In other words, the functional distribution of income determines the economic growth variation path. In this paper considering profit share, capacity utilization, capital accumulation, and net export/GDP ratio during 1967-2013, economic growth path in Iran is determined using Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) concerning the Impulse Response functions. The results show that increase in profit share increases accumulation, net export share of GDP and total demand or economic growth. Thus total demand regime or economic growth is profit-led. The result of this research approves the theoretical results of Bhaduri and Marglin (1990); concerning the income distribution effect on international trade in an open economic, the possibility of profit-led regime increases and may help to overcome the recession.

Subsidy with distortion of prices prevents optimal allocation of resources and decrease economic growth and on the other hand has an irreparable effects on country economic sectors, Thus by determining the trend of macroeconomic variables (production changes, price changes, etc.), economic policymakers become closer to economic goals. In this study, using 65 parts input–output table (2013 table) that modified and updated according to the (RAS) 65 parts input – output table in 2006), the impact of increasing in price of energy carriers (gasoline, kerosene, gas oil, fuel oil, liquid gas, electricity and natural gas) in first (2010) and second (2014) phases of subsidy reform have been investigated on the growth rate of economic sectors. The results showed that the average growth rate of transportation (-16.13%) and industries and mines (-17.37%) decreased and this is due to high dependence on energy, followed by an average high relative price of 2.25 and 1.53 percent, respectively. The average growth rate of agricultural sectors increased (8.45%) and this is due to low dependence on energy carriers followed by the average of low relative price (0.8028). Also coal production had the lowest growth rate, which can be concluded that energy carriers is replaced by coal.

Planning for economic development and making a decision for the implementation of economic policies, need to understand the performance of the whole economy, including the official sector and the underground sector. Understanding the performance of the whole economy requires to know economic information system situation and its efficiency. This study used a DSGE model framework for modelling the underground economy and the effect of oil shock, fiscal impulses (such as changing tax rates) and the shock of productivity on the official economy and underground economy. The results of the evaluation showed that the present model was well able to simulate cyclical behavior and volatility of the variables. The results also showed that a positive impulse to the productivity of official sector caused an increase in official production and a decrease in underground economy and this consequently reduced tax evasion and increased government revenue. On the contrary an impulse to the underground sector productivity of, leaded to a decrease in official production, an increase in underground production and consequently an increase in tax evasion and reducing the government's revenues. Furthermore, a positive shock in the corporate tax rate and income tax rate reduced the official production, increased underground production and tax evasion and decreased government revenue. Positive shock to oil revenues increased official production and reduced underground economy and consequently reduced tax evasion and increased revenue for the government..

Energy is a basic need to continuity in economic development, supplying and providing welfare and comfort in human life. Due to the limitation and scarcity of resources and also considering the extended role and importance of energy in countries’ growth and economic development, determining the effective elements on energy demand is of a special importance. There have been many studies on energy demand in Iran. But this study has taken a different approach.
This study deals with both the effect of energy market integration and the effect of economic growth on energy consumption in Iran’s economy during 1975 to 2014, using generalized method of moments. In this study, empirical results showed that integration of energy market and economic growth has significant positive effects on energy consumption. Also the price elasticity of energy demand in all models indicate the low elasticity in Iran’s economy during the mentioned years. Income elasticity has been estimated larger than one in final models.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of financial development on income inequality and poverty in selected Islamic countries. The selected countries include: Iran, Indonesia, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Libya. This study used the combined data methods to test the research hypotheses during the period 2000-2014. According to survey results, the coefficient of financial development in the Gini coefficient equation (-0.068) shows that financial sector development in Islamic countries has reduced income inequality. The effect of financial development on poverty is positive and significant at 5% level. Based on these results a percentage increase in the index of financial development, will lead to increased consumption per capita cost at 0.4 percent and reduce poverty in Islamic countries.

Prices as the most fundamental variable in the housing sector have the task of optimizing the allocation of economic resources. Statistics show that during the period under the study (1991-2011), housing sector in Iran has experienced four jumps in prices. In this paper, we build a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to study the fluctuations in prices and output of housing sector and identify the effects of monetary and oil price shocks on this fluctuations.
The impulse response functions show that higher money growth rate temporary increases output and inflation in the both housing and nonhousing sectors. In addition, due to the higher elasticity of supply in the nonhousing sector, the effects of monetary shock on production in this sector are more than the housing sector. Higher oil revenues through increased liquidity and then increasing demand of private sector causes higher inflation in the economy. The results show that a shock in oil revenue temporary increases production and inflation in the housing and nonhousing sector simultanously. The difference is that the inflationary effect of this shock is higher than its effect on the production.
Altogether, the comparison of the moments of the model and its impulse response functions with that of real world shows that our model can well illustrate the cyclical fluctuations of most important variables in the housing and nonhousing sectors.

Although the development of agriculture is a function of the economic, social and environmental factors, it seems that the development of agriculture can be a function of the change in innovative human capital and the evolution of knowledge and skills to enhance the efficiency, effectiveness and stability in the sector. In the present paper, the fundamental question is there a significant relationship between four innovative human capital variables and agricultural development?
In order to answer the question, analytical-descriptive research method was used. Findings indicate that there is a significant relationship between the variables of education, health, official agencies, non-official agencies and innovative human capital and development of agriculture. Therefore, it can be said that the relationship between the variable of innovative human capital and development of agriculture is positive. The softwares of SPSS and LISREL are used.

In this paper, optimal development of Iran’s power sector over a long-term period from 2015 to 2050 is investigated. In this paper a system-engineering optimization model (MESSAGE) has been used to explore the medium to long-term power supply options. Minimization of the total system costs for the whole study period is the criterion used for optimization of the MESSAGE model. The main focus of this study is analyzing penetration of renewable energy sources under different scenarios. The main scenarios are defined based on the fossil fuel prices and demand changes. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact of the discount rate on the main results. The results indicate that the total installed capacity would be 160 GW in 2050 under an optimistic scenario, while BAU scenario calls for 250 GW capacity in the same year. The share of renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants would achieve to 25% and 15% under the optimistic condition. The findings reveal that development of green technologies requires a reasonable discount rate below 8%.