پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال هفتم شماره 14 (پاییز و زمستان 1391)

The effort of this paper is to use 21 indicators related to the subject of the industries with 4 digit codes of ISIC(Third edition) which its information obtained from the Iran center of statistic’s during the period of (1379-1384), this article tries to rank those information by numerical taxonomy, factor analysis and structural change methods. This article also studies the structural changes with 2 digit codes of ISIC. The obtained results from indicators of fundamental analysis show that there is tendency and bias to produce industrial applications such as ungrouping equipments and machinery motor vehicle trailer and mini trailer production other transportation vehicles, fundamental metals, metallic fabric productions, chemical productions and produce the coke and the oil productions is considered during the mentioned period.

The effectiveness of monetary shocks on exchange rate fluctuations in the context of overshooting theory is one of the most important subjects in macroeconomic. Since the economy of Iran after revolution years has exposed to monetary base expansion, so examination of the relation between expansionary monetary policy and exchange rate fluctuations and then the role of increasing the degree of floating exchange rate with increasing of this fluctuation, is the principal purpose of this research. Therefore, in the first section of the research, the effectiveness of a monetary shock on exchange rate during the period of 1370-1386 has examined. In the overshooting exchange rate models form was seen, after a monetary shock, exchange rate shoots over the long run level and in the long run, is adjusted and stands in the level that is over the early level. In the second section research, after the prediction of the exchange rate market by the neural networks, it was seen, by increase the degree of floating exchange rate, the scope of exchange rateovershooting increases

This paper calculates the total factor productivity changes and its components for three energy intensive industries in IRAN during the period of 1363-1383, based on a DEA model. Moreover, we estimate a regression equation for technical efficiency of energy and other input intensities. Attained results represent, that these industries have been the least performance in average technical efficiency during the second development program. There is, the un-metallic mineral industry and the metal industry have been the best and the last performance respectively. Indeed, management inefficiency was the main source of comparative inefficiency. The estimation results of regression emphasize on high magnitude of energy intensity to explanation of technical efficiency changes. The Malmequist index results describe that the total productivity in the first and third development programs was increased and have been the main cause of the technical changes.

The main purpose of this article is to study the impact of banking credits on employment in Golestan province. The type of this research method is applied and it is used of two Procedures descriptive- survey. Regression analysis and panel data model are used for data analysis. The statistical subject of this investigation is credited of all active banks during 1998- 2005 including 11 commercial and specialized banks. To collect information, the survey of documents consolidated financial statements of commercial and specialized banking was extracted and used. Data analysis has indicated that human forces had the most significant effect on the economic growth in the province and is in line with our expectations. The findings also show that the duty credits are of little influence an the province employment whereas non duty credts have been of higher positive role in the province employment.

The optimal use of oil as a natural resource is an important problem in exporting countries. These countries always are encountered with two challenges which are uncertainty and volatility of oil revenues and exhaustible oil resource. The main purpose of this paper is studying of oil prices volatility effect on economic growth in during 1981-2007. Then we implicitly try to evaluate the role of reserve exchange account for controlling oil price shocks. To do it, first, the volatility of oil prices is estimated by ARCH and GARCH methods, and then its effect on the Iran's economic growth is estimated by using state-space method. Findings show that the volatility of oil prices has a negative effect on economic growth and the reserve exchange account completely cannot control the volatility of oil prices.

Poverty and income inequality cause economic, social and political problems and challenges in different countries. Comparison of inequality intensity represents the true nature of huge changes by the economic progress. In this paper, we study the relationship between financial development and income distribution inequality in 11 developing countries with average human development that their average per capita income is higher than the global average per capita income. During this investigation to determine how the effectiveness of development financial on distribution inequality by using the models of regression and Panel technique, to test two theories during the time 1984- 2005. The results of estimations reject the inverse – Urelationship between financial development and income inequality and support the negative and a linear relationship between these two variables.

Theoretically, productivityis recognized as a production factorwhich affect on the economic growth alike as other production factors. Investment in research and development (R&D) affects on the total factor productivity (TFP) in economy. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the roleof investment in R & D on TFP increasingin two-digit industry codes in Iran.Cross-sectional data is used on two-digit industry code (ISIC) for nineindustries during time period from 1374 to 1387. Research and development expenditures alongside with other variables such capital-output ratio, the openness degree of the economy, effective foreign exchange rate, the share of private ownership, skilled manpower, foreign raw materials consumption share, and industry profitability are implied in econometrics model to analyze their effects by panel data approach.The results indicate that in the period of study, skilled manpower, capital-output ratio, industry profitability, foreign raw materials consumption share, the openness degree of the economy, the share of private ownership, effective foreign exchange rate, all by two lags in the model, but research and development expenditures with three lags have a positive effect on total factor productivity (TFP) in various industries.In this regard, the share of private ownership has the most effect on total factor productivity. Also, the higher effect of R & D on TFP is in chemical products, petroleum, rubber, plastics, and fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment industries.