فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال ششم شماره 3 (پیاپی 19، پاییز 1391)

Gradual adjustment of nominal wages and prices is the basis of New Keynesian models. The survey of microeconomic bases of slow adjustment is necessary for the welfare analysis. The reasons for incomplete adjustment of nominal wages and prices are the uncertainty, cost information, and re-negotiations. Note that the correct relationship between inflation and unemployment is important in the political and economic decision. So, in this article, we derive Phillips curve regarded to the incomplete adjustment of nominal wages and prices. In other words, Phillips curve based on the condition is New Keynesian Phillips curve which is related to incomplete adjustment of nominal wages and prices.

This article tries to identify the forward and backward linkages of Petrochemical sector using conventional and improved Chenry-Vatanabe, Rasmussen and Eigenvector methods. It relies on Eigenvector method noted much. This method, based on Perron-Frobenius theory, considers the continuity of durability in one sector to the others due to the quantity of the final demand and added value. So, Input-Output table of the year 2001 aggregated to 27 sectors are used. The results represent that petrochemical sector in all the methods used has strong Forward linkage (FL>1) and weak Backward linkage (BL<1). Thus, this is not a key sector. Strong Forward linkage shows a high level of intermediate demand belonging to all sectors. Hence, we can say that petrochemical sector is a superior industry for most economic sectors and its sufficiency is higher than other economic sectors.

Many countries like Iran are looking to solve the serious problems caused by inflation. In this research, the authors are to present a way for controlling the inflation during 5th development plan during 2008-2016 in Iran by using Optimal Control theory and Time Series data of Central Bank during 1998-2007. The interest rate reaction function will be derived and the central bank loss function subject minimized to exchange rate deviation, inflation as well as production behavior. The results indicate that the monetary authorities should increase the interest rate to reduce the liquidity as the cost of financing investments in the production sector. It leads to the control of the inflation directing to the value targeted.

Agriculture is an important part of the economy having a significant role in exports of any country. On the other hand, the economic integration leads to the increase of trading and income of member states. In this paper, the factors affecting agricultural exports in ECO countries will be studied by using Panel Approach during 1992-2010. The findings present that Export Price Index, GDP and exchange rates have a positive effect and exchange rate fluctuations and population have a negative effect on agricultural exports. So, it is recommended that, for improving agricultural exports, GDP and exchange rate should be increased. In addition, by decreasing the fluctuation in exchange rate, the negative effects will be controlled.

This paper tries to develop a mathematical model to assign an optimal site for Insurance Organization branches in eastern part of Tehran by using the data of Social Insurances Organization. So, designing and developing service network and determining a proper site to set up the centers of services is a vital issue. Factors affecting the location include land price, ensured population, closeness to the parking, organizations, clinics, banks, underground-station, bus-station, highways. By using questionnaire and performing pair-wise comparisons of the determinants and then analyzing the data collected by Eigenvector method, the effectiveness coefficients of each determinant will be determined. Numerical results of MADM model will be inserted in the second objective function defined as 0 and 1 that means the organization branch in that location must set up or not. Finally, the model will be solved by Excel and a proper location determined for setting up the branches.

An important issue in macroeconomics is the effect of monetary shocks on macroeconomic variables. How monetary shocks affect the real production in different economic situations such as recession and expansion is vital for policy makings and the effectiveness of the policies. So, this research tries to test and analyze the asymmetric impacts of monetary shocks on the productions in Iran by using seasonal Time Series Data during 1999-2008 and Markov-Switching model. The results indicate that negative and positive monetary policies in recession and also expansion period have asymmetric effects on domestic production growth. In general, monetary shocks are more effective in recession than expansion.

The trade and investment relations have expanded substantially in globalization process among most developed and developing countries. The development has implemented in form of regional and global integrations affecting differently economies worldwide. The objective of this paper is to explore the effect of such integration on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in where countries where locate in the Persian Gulf, which are mostly oil producing. To this end, a panel econometric model has been specified and estimated using cross-section data of the selected countries in the region during 2001-2008. The empirical results indicate that regional trade integration leads the countries to increase FDI inflows, while they are faced with the inverse effects of discrepancies in culture and language on attracting FDI.