فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال هفتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 21، بهار 1392)

New international economic theories indicate that the increase of trade integrations is an important and effective element in Business cycles synchronization. This paper investigates the effects of trade integration and specialization on synchronization in ECO during 1993-2007, introducing a new and dynamic cross correlation index and using GMM methods. The results represent that increased trade (intra-industry trade and inter-industry trade) strengthen synchronization in ECO Countries. Also, more industrial similarities of a pair of countries induce higher bilateral synchronization

This study investigates the factors affecting risk management efficiency of banking industry during 2001-2009, taking 15 public and private operating banks in Iran. For this purpose, capital adequacy ratio is considered as risk management efficiency indicator and other determinants are divided into bank specific indicators and macroeconomic variables. Empirical results represent a positive relationship between the liquidity, profitability, operating efficiency, economic growth and capital adequacy ratio while credit risk and inflation rates have a negative effect on capital adequacy ratio as an indicator of risk management efficiency in banks.

This research evaluates the effect of ICT on employment of total and technical workforce. The data will be collected from Tehran manufacturing Industries during 2006-2009. In this study, the production function by Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) will be used after selecting Fixed Effect Model (FEM) according to F Test and Housman Chi-squared statistics estimated by ordinary least squares Least Squared Dummy Variable (LSDV). Instead of ICT, four dummy variables are used. The results represent that the use of ICT has a positive and significant effect on total and technical workforce.

In this paper, a simple model of a speculative housing market will be developed in which the demand for houses is influenced by expectations about future housing prices. Agents rely on extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to form their expectations. The relative importance of these competing views evolves over time, subject to market circumstances. It will be represented that the relative price elasticity of the demand of different views has important role in making speculative bubbles of Tehran housing market. The results indicate that the weight of agents by extrapolative demand (chartists) is more than 90% during last two decades.

The aim of this study, firstly, is to investigate and identify the factors leading to the adoption of high yielding wheat varieties grown by farmers. Secondly, it is to consider the impacts of neighborhood on farmers’ decisions about adoption of wheat varieties as spatial data. For this purpose, Spatial Probit Discrete Choice model and Bayesian method will be used to estimate the model by using MATLAB software. The data are collected by 214 farmers in central part of Qazvin city via Simple Random Sampling. The results of the models estimated by using Bayesian method shows that adoption of high yielding wheat varieties are affected by variables such as rural production cooperatives, farming experience, age, quantity of wheat production and Spatial Autoregressive Coefficient

This paper attempts to evaluate the effects of nano-technology on the economic growth of Europe Union countries, USA and Japan during 2009-1997 in the frame of an econometric model (GMM) and Panel Data. The results represent that the development nano-technology has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the countries under the study. So that, 1 percent increase of the research and development costs in nano-technology makes the economic growth of the above countries to be increased about 0.01 percent.

The aim of this paper is to identify the sectors having the most backward and forward linkage to the other economic sectors in East Azerbaijan. The research methodology is based on input-output, the backward and forward linkages and structural path analysis. the results represent that machinery, chemical products, rubber and plastic, and agriculture, horticulture and forestry sectors have the most important direct and indirect backward linkages, but the sectors like food products, wood products, furniture and paper and petroleum products have the most important direct and indirect forward linkages and the multiplier of these interactions have been analyzed with the path analysis approach and indirect paths of demand increase are differentiated from the direct paths of supply increase.