فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال هفتم شماره 4 (پیاپی 24، زمستان 1392)

Valuation of environmental resources plays an important role in environmental economics in recent years. This research will assess the preservation value of Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall in Firouzkooh and estimate individual willingness to pay (WTP) for preserving the benefits obtained based on contingent valuation method (CVM) and double-bounded dichotomous choice (DDC). Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall are one of the most important recreation areas in Tehran province and Firouzkooh city. To achieve the goal and estimate the willingness to pay, Logit and Probit models will be used based on maximum likelihood method. The data are collected via 275 questionnaires. The results represent that 78.5% of individuals have the willing to pay for preservation of Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall. The average of WTP when visiting the site is about 12578.23 RLs per household yearly and also, the annual preservation value is calculated about 14339182200 RLs. Also, it is found that the variable of income has the most effectiveness on the acceptation of bid prices and provides enough justification for policy makers to maintain the quality of Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall.

Stagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correction Method (ECM) and the data of the years 1973-2011. Then, by using Threshold Autoregressive Error Correction Method (TAR-ECM), the researchers try to clear that if the growth of the elements identified will equally affect the stagflation or after a threshold level, the effect can be different. According to the results of linear relationship, indices of payment balances, budget deficit, oil revenues and liquidity are statistically significant and considered as the cause of stagflation in Iran. Also, the results of all nonlinear models estimated in this paper represent when the growth of stagflation causes passed the threshold point, their effect on stagflation will be different.

This paper examines the impact of E-Government on the economic corruption in 34 selected countries of OIC during 2003-2011. Therefore, a random panel method like GLS will be used by considering heteroskedasticity to achieve the goal. The results represent that the improvement of E-government can reduce economic corruption of all countries. It can be possible only when more investment to be done on constructing and then improving E-government.

In this paper, nonlinear relationship between insurance penetration and per-capita income will be studied. For this purpose, the researchers specified S-shaped Curve as two-factor logistic growth functions and estimated its parameters by MLE method using panel data of 70 countries during 2000-2011. The results of estimation indicate that there is a level of per-capita income approximately 18697 for life, 7492 for non-life insurance and 10392 for total industry in which the income elasticity of the demand for insurance reaches to the maximum, 1.63, 1.38 and 1.42 respectively. Also, the maximum and minimum of life, non-life and total industry penetrations will be 4.54, 2.9 and 7.44, and 0.75, 1.02 and 1.83 respectively.

Capital plays an important role in increasing the productivity of economic sectors like agriculture. Due to the limitations of financial and capital markets in Iran, banking resources are one of the most important factors to provide capital in the agricultural sector. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the banking facilities including fixed and working capital on macroeconomic variables of agriculture during 1973-2010. To achieve the goal, 3-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method is used. The Results represent that banks facilities have positive and significant effects on the value added, investment and employment in agriculture sector.

In order to make decision about appropriate policies related to resource allocation in economic sections, the identification of comparative advantage is very important. To do this, finding the potentials of the area selected in favor of national objectives is a necessity. Iran economy has a high level of unemployment nationally and locally and so the reduction of this rate can be one of the most vital purposes of any developmental programs. However, different regions of the country have various comparative advantages in creating jobs. According to the plan predicted, industry is considered as the base of development plans in Yazd. The share of Yazd province in job creation based on population and number of unemployment is envisaged more than average. However, geographical and climate conditions of Yazd province made agricultural development impossible. On the other hand, richness of minerals and human resources in Yazd made manufacturing industries as the concentration point in long-term plans. This study by investigating Yazd manufacturing industries identifies comparative advantages of these industries based on employment at the 4-digit industry levels during the second, third and fourth developmental plans. TOPSIS technique is used for ranking the advantages. The results represent that food and beverages industries as well as textiles, non-metallic mineral products, and electrical machinery industries have more comparative advantages in Yazd.

The vital role of gold reserves in balance sheets of world central banks on one hand and its attractiveness in investments as a reliable property within an unstable macroeconomic environment on the other hand caused that this precious metal to be paid attention to by policy makers, researchers and market macroeconomic agents even after the collapse of Breton Woods System. This paper presents the estimates of factors that affect physical demand for gold and its dynamicity using panel data approach and Generalized Method of Moments for 25 during 2000-2011. Results indicate that the most important element affecting the demand for gold is the past times demands. Other determinants affecting the demand positively are per capita income, per capita income growth, inflation rate, private sectors credits and real interest rate. Change in variables such as per capita income volatilities, inflation volatilities and stock market value affect the gold demand negatively.

The main goal of this paper is to investigate the relation between industry performance, market structure and innovation in Iran manufacturing industries. For this purpose, the performance of 130 different industrial groups will be analyzed and discussed by Panel Vector Auto Regressive Regression (PVAR) and Generalized Model of Moment GMM based on International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) during 1996-2010. The findings represent that industry performance has significant and stable effects on Market concentration. Also, the results of Impulse-Response Functions indicate that Structure Shocks affect the profitability of Iran manufacturing sector in short run, but market structure is not related to profitability in long run. The study of Variance Decomposition and R&D activities explain most variations in market structure and market Concentration. However, the profitability is affected by concentration and R&D activities. It has most effects on the variations of R&D activities.