فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال یازدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 37، بهار 1396)

This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 28%) and low inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 12%), are identified and causes of regime transition have been surveyed. The results show the significant impact of liquidity growth and the output gap on inflation in both regimes. On the other hand, inflationary impact of liquidity growth in low inflation regime estimated less than the high inflation regime. The results of the Markov model indicate that liquidity growth and money market disequilibrium are the factors of transmission from low inflation to high inflation regime but these variables do not contain any significant implications for the transition from high inflation to low inflation regime. So according to the results, it can be concluded that the use of monetary expansionary policies in a low inflation regime can be more effective on the production than high inflation regime.

This paper, by using household micro-level data over 2010-2014 and utilizing the generalized Logit model and Oaxaca-blinder and Machado-Mata decomposition, investigates the factor affecting educational demands and determining the share of education in income inequality. The results show that increase the parents’ years of educational and decrease in number of children lead to increase the educational demand. The results of decomposition models, also, indicate the share of education in income inequality at the bottom deciles of income is 0.6 and at the top deciles is 2.5 percent. Averagely, the share of education in income inequality in 2010 was equal to 1.46 and in 2014 to 3.26 percent. To increase the efficiency of education in the country, the policies such as creation increase the relationship between university and industry, quality of education and increase investment in sectors whit higher forward and backward linkage is advised.

The aim of this paper is introducing a new method to estimation monopoly power and uses it for 136 Iranian manufacturing industries at 4 digits ISIC level during 2005-2013. The method used is stochastic frontier approach. The results indicate that the markup of nearly 98 percent of manufacturing industries is between 10 and 40 percent and they have an uncompetitive behavior. The average industries markup in Iran had a rising trend over time, reducing their average returns to scale. According to the results; there are suggested canceling the exclusive advantages that used to grant to some industries, lowering the tariff for increasing foreign competition with implementation necessary standards in order to production, importing industerial outputs and expanding industerial activities in the form of cooperatives.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effective factors associated with FDI inflows to MENA region (11 selected countries in Middle East and North Africa). The two-stage least squared pooling method was used for selected MENA countries to analyze the data for 2002-2014. Based on the results of analysis, positive effect of economic growth, rate of inflation, and market openness and a negative effect of good governance on foreign direct investment obtained. The results, also, showed that countries with fixed exchange rate regime were more successful in attracting FDI inflows. Based on the findings of this study, and to attract FDI inflows, MENA member countries should implement policies aimed at, improving public’s perceptions of governance, decreasing the inflation, increasing economic growth, creating stable foreign exchange rate regimes, and increasing trade openness.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impacts of fundamental variables and volatility of oil revenue (as one of the most important of environment prevailing components in Iran economy) on degree of exchange rate pass through (ERPT) into import price. For this, Markov-Switching and EGARCH methods were used on the base of data for 1990:3 to 2014:1. The findings indicate that there are two ERPT into import price regimes in Iran economy. The ERPT is more than unitary in both regimes. Also, volatility of oil revenues has asymmetric impacts on ERPTs of regimes in terms of size and sign but it increases ERPT into import price in both regimes. Therefore, managing of volatility of oil revenues and exchange rate changes are suggested.

This paper studies the pricing issue in a multi-period and multi-product closed-loop supply chain with price-dependent demands. The aim is to assign a location for the collection and disassemble center, vehicle routing, and material ordering in order to maximize the profit. In the study, a non-linear mathematical model is presented for small scale problems. Due to the NP-hardness of the problem, two met heuristics, genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm, are applied to solve medium and large scale problems. The algorithms are validated by comparing their results with those of the mathematical model. Finally, the performance comparison of the two met heuristics through statistical analysis is demonstrated that the particle swarm optimization algorithm performance outperforms the genetic algorithm.

The main objective of this paper is to analysis the impact of Information & Communication Technology)ICT( on the health economics among the selected middle-income countries. The results of fixed effects andGeneralized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the period of 2000-2015 imply that; Mobile cellular subscriptions and the internet have significant and positive effects on the Health expenditure, in private sector among selected countries. If the Mobile cellular subscriptions and internet increased by one percent, Health expenditure in private will be increased 0.136928 & 0.032519 percent in average respectively. Based on the results, it is recommended that appropriate application of modern technologies should be culturalized through education for households, and also in schools and universities.