فصلنامه جغرافیا و پایداری محیط
پیاپی 26 (بهار 1397)

Quality of Surface water is one of the important criteria to determine the health of watershed. So its changes determine the state of health and sustainability of environment and human societies. Since in the last decade, due to the use of water resources and its pollution, this vital source has changed, the information of its status in the coming years can play an important role in environmental planning and sustainability of human geography. Taleghan watershed in Alborz province is one of the areas that are affected by these changes. In this research, using the Galinak hydrometric station data and the values of 10 parameters of water quality K, Na, mg, Ca, So4, Cl, Hco3, PH, Ec, TDS in the years (1990-2016), the health status of this area was evaluated using gene expression planning model. Data for years (1990-2006), (2007-2014), (2015-2016) were considered as training, test and error data respectively, and at least one year (from September 2016 until September 2017) as predictive data fitted using an algorithm with R2 0.87 and RMSE 3.003. In this study, the data were normalized and actual data. The results showed that by training in the model, the values of surface water quality variables of Taleghan watershed can be predicted with acceptable accuracy by investigating the data pattern. In general, when the data are normalized, the accuracy of the model is relatively 10% lower than accuracy of model with real data.
The agricultural and industrial activities within the catchment area, as well as the disposal of urban sewage and industrial wastewater, affect the quality of water resources and, in most cases, reduce water quality. The set of changes and behavior that humans create in the watershed changes the state of normal life. One of the manifestations of these changes is to reduce or increase the quality of water. In recent years, we have generally encountered a decline in water quality and quantity. One of the criteria to assess the health and sustainability of a watershed is the study of surface water quality changes. Considering this criterion, the process of watershed changes can be determined. Using normalization of data or data in normal mode plays an important role in research results. We should use models that have the highest accuracy with the least computations and the ability to teach other people to use in all watersheds in Iran. In this study, the gene expression algorithm for modeling water quality data and its changes has been investigated. The current health status of the watershed is determined using the reference table. The proposed algorithm predicts the health status of the watershed until the end of September 2018.
One of the methods for assessing the existing status of watersheds is to review the water quality and its changes. Considering that Taleghan watershed has different land use changes, these changes have reduced the quality of water resources in this watershed. In order to investigate these changes in different years, the gene expression has been used in data modeling and prediction. Normal mode and normalized data usage are two methods to check data on entering the model. First, the variables that had the most effect on the model were determined and then the gene expression algorithm was created. In order to evaluate the generated model, three factors of determination coefficient, mean error of absolute and root mean square error were used.
Using the obtained results, it was found that during investigated time, the use of normalized data provides different results than normal data. As well as, variables whose trend is close to the linear trend shows higher modeling accuracy. Among the variables studied in the model training section, the highest correlation between natural data is related to the amount of PH and the lowest amount is magnesium. In the test section, electrical conductivity has the highest correlation, while magnesium has the lowest correlation. During the period of this study, the EC and TDS are 483.33 and 271.50, which are categorized as "healthy". Recorded data does not show any better value in this watershed. Water quality values, used from variables related to the watershed potential, show a relatively stable trend over time. The results show that data normalization has reduced the accuracy of the model and the impact rank in the model is different. Environmental data often has a nonlinear process which reduces the modeling accuracy. According to the average coefficient of determination 0.87, it is expected that by the end of September 2018, the health status of the watershed will have been reduced to 27 and fall within the scope of recurrent cancer.
This study was carried out using water quality data at Galinak station in Alborz province. The results of this study indicated that normalizing data to reduce the amount of data for increase the speed of their analysis, can affect the true results of modeling. The reference values of variables in each vary watershed according to their potential, and it is not possible to provide the same reference points for all watersheds in Iran. Changes in the natural data process, especially in annual scale, are slow, and it is recommended to pay attention to the causes of these changes. The results of this study showed that data modeling using the gene expression in terms of speed in data processing and accuracy in the results is acceptable and gives accuracy of over 70% in all variables. It is suggested that modeling of water quality data using normalization of numbers and natural conditions in other watersheds should be done in order to evaluate the accuracy of the model in both modes.

Tectonic and constructional movements have always played an important role in geomorphological changes. Identifying the nature of recent constructional movements has been of importance in understanding and interpreting landforms. In this research constructional movements in Eshtehard and Qazvin, located in the south and southwest of Tehran and southern slope of Alborz Mount, are investigated using Radar interferometry and geomorphological map of the basin. This technique is done using the images of Sentinel 1, which is located in band C radar range, with the average wave-length of 5/6 GHz. Geomorphological map of study area is provided in ArcMap GIS software, using Google-Earth images, DEM, Geological map, field visit, and sampling of landforms. Sentinel 1 Radar images are received from European Satellite site. Monitor changes are applied in SNAP software. According to the results of Radar Interferometry from 2015/10/3 to 2017/10/2, the whole study basin is tectonically rising. However, the rate of uplift in west and northwest of basin is greater than eastern and southern parts. Investigating geomorphological evidences such as consecutive alluvial fans, deviation of alluvial fans and remnants of lake terraces is totally in accordance with results from Radar interferometry indicating a high tectonic deviation speed in northwest of basin, that is around the city of Qazvin and Takestan, comparing with south and south-western of the basin.

The development of discussions about­ industry and its effects on the environment, along with population growth, led to a sustainability paradigm in the world. Sustainability roots in environmental thoughts which is a multidimensional phenomenon nowadays including social, economic, and environmental issues. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate and assess the sustainability of development in economic, social and environmental aspects in the counties of Ardabil Province. The research method is descriptive-analytical and quantitative. The population consists of 10 counties of Ardebil Province, based on census in 2015 and 2014. 3 economic, social and environmental components consisting of 10 economic indices, 16 social indices, and 14 environmental indices were used to evaluate. In this study, Analytic Network Process model (ANP) was used to express the relative importance of each indicator, and the sustainable barometer model was used to analyze the data. The results show ­that among the triple sustainability aspects, the economic aspect has more sustainability in comparison to the social and environmentally aspects. Indices of economic and social with the value of (0.485) and (0.469) have an average level of sustainability and the environmental aspect with a value of (0.383) has a nearly unsustainable level. According to human well-being, among the 10 counties­ studied, only the city of (Sareyn), has an almost unsustainable level, eight cities (Khalkhal, Kosar, Garmi, Nir, Meshgin Shahr, Namin, Pars Abad, and Bableh Savar) have an average level of sustainability and a city of (Ardebil) has at an almost sustainable level. Also in terms of well-being of ecosystems of the counties studied, it suggests that seven cities (Garmi, Nir, Sareyn, Namin, Bableh Savar, Meshgin Shahr, and Khalkhal) are almost unsustainable, and three cities (Kosar, Pars Abad, and Ardabil) have an average level of sustainability.

In arid and semiarid regions, the water quality of some rivers decreases by salinization while passing through some geological formations. This study aims to find the source of the hydrochemical salinity of Namaklan River. Sampling was performed at 6 points along the Namaklan River for 4 seasons and also from before and after the confluence of Godarkhosh River with the Namaklan River. Namaklan River water type is sodium chloride,and due to the persistence and insignificant changes of these elements in water, the chemical composition of river water is constant along the path, which was analyzed by independent samples t-test in Gachsaran and Aghajari Formations. The results showed that, the concentration of different ions and salts before the confluence is low in the Godarkhosh River while it increases at the point of conjunction. This is due to the arrival of different salts and ions from Namaklan River to Godarkhosh River. So that the amount of EC, SAR and RSC in Namkalan River in January were 336, 75 and 23 times more than before joining to the Godarkhosh River, respectively. Based on the chemical analysis and the existence of specific compounds in water samples, it was found that the source of salinity was the influence of Gachsaran formation, because the minerals and salts in the water of the river correspond to the chemical composition of Gachsaran formation.

Agriculture is one of the most important aspect of human life that has strong relationship with climate condition. Therefore, any changes in climatic condition lead to significant changes in agriculture. The main object of this study is to analyze the spatial dynamics of suitable agro climatic area of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan Province under climate change condition. Two types of date were used to determine the suitable agro climatic area for Alo-Vera Cultivation in Hormozgan Province namely: minimum and maximum temperature, long term mean annual rainfall and environmental factors such as slop, aspect, soil type and elevation. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) also has been used to determine the special weight of each factor. The results from combination of variables showed that the southern coasts are the best regions to cultivate this herb. However, some parts were regarded as salt domes causing some limitations. The Northern parts was recognized as less significant regions for Aloe Vera growth. The Results indicated in 4 RCPs scenarios the agro climatic zones of Alo-Vera significantly changed in compared to current climatic condition. The results indicated that under RCP, 6 the spatial changes of Agroclimatic area of Aloe-Vera were greater than other scenarios.

Planning and deciding about consuming water in future, and optimized management of water in line with sustainable agriculture development, need the information the climate change. In this study, the effect of climate change on temperature, solar radiation and precipitation, were evaluated. Daily weather parameters of 30 synoptic stations during 1991 to 2010 were used. HADCM3 in downscaling model of LARS-WG under r scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for three 34-year periods from 2011 to 2045, 2046 to 2079 and 2080 to 2113 were applied to produce future data. The results of evaluation of model in basic period showed that the maximum accuracy of model belongs to the maximum temperature and the minimum accuracy is related to precipitation. In fact, NRMSE and r values of Tmax were 0.005 and 0.999, while they were 0.079 and 0.996 for the precipitation respectively. The prediction of weather parameters in future years indicated that the temperature and the solar radiation values will increase. However, the similar trend was not observed in precipitation. The scenario A2 was considered as the most crisis scenario, so that the increasing 2.13% solar radiation and 24.56 % temperature and decreasing 11.59 % precipitation until 2113 are predicted. In general, with continuing the present condition and prediction of future climate change, the optimized management in agriculture and water resources is necessary.

Natural resources including forests, rangelands, rivers, sea shores, water fall, some mountainous landscapes such as caves, debris and alluvium fan are considered as unique heritages due to their contributions on environmental services and sustainability. However, these valuable resources are degraded mainly through anthropogenic land-use. Overcoming climate change and land resources degradation depends on controlling land-use change and saving our natural heritages, so that it is Achilles heel for overcoming environmental crisis. There are many factors contributing to land-use change mainly including climate change, land tenure and ownership, urbanization, official and legal shortcoming.
Based on literature review and field verification, the climate change is more serious in semiarid areas due to lower precipitation and higher hydrological lost. Despite the drastic increase of water demand during drought both runoff losses and deforestation processes severely accelerate the land-use change. Decline the forest and rangeland area as well as soil nutrient and organic carbon depletion are the important on-site impacts of land-use change. Furthermore, the areas of fair rangeland are being shifted to poor condition due to both conversion to rain-fed lands and overgrazing. Climate change is the main aspects of land-use alteration due to negative change in soil quality, particularly the critical extrinsic characteristics including SOC, soil nutrients, soil aggregates and bulk density. If current land degradation and land-use change continue, other impacts in terms of water deficit, desertification and migration can be spread throughout the semiarid region of Iran. Absolutely, overcoming these challenges depends upon saving our heritages including natural resources, unique landscapes, and an attempt to do proper agricultural activities.