فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 17 (بهار 1395)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of monetary aggregates on inflation. The present study based on asymmetry of monetary policy related to the phase of the business cycle in place at the time at which this policy was adopted, examines the asymmetric effects of monetary gap on inflation in high and low inflation. Also, due to volatility behavior of inflation in Iran, inflation has modeled as a Markov switching regime. Comparing with other empirical studies, this paper using of Bayesian approach of Markov switching method, has estimated the role of monetary policy in transition of inflation regimes. Also, P-star model has been used to explain the behavior of inflation in Iran during 1990Q2- 2011Q3. In addition, in this study due to ambiguities surround the money measurement and the role of money in the concept of money stock and the monetary gap, simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates have been used. The results show that the effects of monetary gaps in inflation regimes are not same and have also investigated asymmetric. Also, these effects in high inflation regimes are weaker than low inflation regimes that it is opposite with conventional view. This matter could be have the reasons as the interruptions of the monetary policy effects, the instability of money demand and more importantly, reduction in velocity of money due to stagnation in Iran's economy and increase in speculative activities. Therefore, regarding asymmetric effects of monetary policies in high and low inflation regimes suggests that the Central Bank designing the appropriate policies during the regimes. Also, the results show that concerning asymmetric effects, Divisia monetary aggregates compared with the simple sum monetary aggregates is more efficiently. Thus, it seems that Divisia monetary aggregates is a better proxy to examine the role of money in macroeconomic policy.

The central purpose of the present study is investigation of the relationship between market structure and technology factor for Iran’s manufacturing industries. In this paper, we have used the collected data by the statistical centre of Iran for the manufacturing industries (in the four-digit ISIC code level) during the period 1374 to 1389. The model of this paper is based on regression models of Levin - Reiss and Dasgupta - Stiglitz due to the market structural variables consist of: economies of scale, Herfindal Index concentration index, the ratio of R & D to sales and imported capital goods. Research findings indicate that the lowest coefficient of technology among Iranian manufacturing industries related to waste recycling industry. On the other hand, there is a negative relationship between the concentration and coefficient of technology. This means that monopoly industries have low coefficient of technology. In other words Schumpeterian view is violated for the Iran’s industrial markets. Hence, restructuring of Iran’s monopoly markets is required for developing of the technology coefficient. In the most of Iranian manufacturing industries not be utilized of economies of scale due to the small size and activity level of organization of production.

In this study the dynamic relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth using a multivariate model in Iran is examined. The variables used in article are economic growth, labor, capital, natural gas consumption and total factor productivity for the period of 1345-1391. Granger causality is conducted using Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure. Two-way Granger causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth, capital and economic growth as well as one-way Granger causality from capital to natural gas consumption and one-way Granger causality from economic growth and capital to total factor productivity are confirmed. ARDL bound testing confirmed the Long-run relationship among variables. Natural gas consumption and capital stock are two important factors in economic growth of Iran.

In this paper we study the determinants of NPL growth in banking system of Iran. Worsening of loan portfolio quality has been one of the biggest challenges of the economy in recent years. To identify the effects of different factors on NPL, at macro level and bank level, we estimate an unbalanced panel data model, LSDVC, Based on persistence of dependent variable and unbalanceness of our quarterly panel data of banks over 1381-1392. Regressors of our model are NPL, GDP growth, real lending rate and exchange rate, all of which are lagged for one period, as well as market share of private banks, loans to assets (LTA), size and loan growth rate of banks. While the authors find that exchange rate is insignificant, lagged NPL, market share of private banks, lagged GDP, and loan to assets has a significant positive effect on loan portfolio quality. In contrast, real lending rate, loan growth, and size of bank has a significant negative effect on NPL, thereby improve loan portfolio quality. However, square of market share of private banks and square of size have negative and positive effect, respectively.

Given definitions who social capital can be seen as a set of norms in social systems and permit the cooperation between members of the community, and decrease the costs, it is expected that it cause positively the increase in labor productivity and total productivity in organizations and production systems.
In this study after presentation of different definitions of social capital and the channels of influence of it's on other social and economic variables, we used a complex social capital index and indicators that calculated by Iranian data during 1981-2011, to study the impact of this variable on labor productivity by using an ARDL approach. Short and long-term results of model estimations confirm the positive and significant impact of social capital on labor productivity in Iran.
This results shows that we can increase the productivity in production process in Iranian economy by increasing social capital concept, which, is the main principles of Islamic Republic of Iran.

Today, human capital is a key factor in development of countries and Researchers are trying to use the index to human capital in their econometric models. One of these indicators is average years of schooling. On the other hand, there isnt any Institution or organization for calculation and offer this index in the form of time series. So, we have examined the strengths and weaknesses of the studies within the country and full description of the methods used by Barro and Lee (2010), and we have been applied the necessary changes in a pattern that is consistent with the educational system of Iran. In this study, by collecting statistical data on the educational status of the population over six years of age, the average years of schooling in the years 1978-2013 was calculated for the three groups of the population according to sex. The first group includes population over six years of age are Studying. The second group is population literate over six years of age who are not studying. The third group consists of all population over six years of age. The results show that the average years of schooling for all three groups had significant growth and in recent years, about 8 years is calculated. Results calculated for each of the three groups in the form of time series.

This paper explores the interrelationship between price and nominal wage during the period of Fiscal Year 1997-78 to Fiscal Year 2012-13. An ARDL bound testing approach suggested by Pesaran et al. (2001) is employed to investigate the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship between consumer price index (CPI) and nominal wage rate, while accounting for the underlying macro determinants of price inflation, namely, the bilateral (Rial/US dollar) nominal exchange rate, credit (banks and financial institutions sectors) and real gross domestic product (GDP). The results show that the nominal exchange rate, the nominal wage rate and credit a positive relation with the price level both in the short-run and in the long run. And real GDP is negatively related to price. Granger causality test results also show that indirect causal relationship between nominal wage rate one-way price in the short term and the long-run. So there's wage price spiral be rejected. The results showed that long-term real GDP and exchange rates (balance of payments view) is the most important for the stability of the price level.

Exchange rate policies and fluctuations in national currency play an important role in the stability of the macroeconomic environment as an economic objective of each country. The overall objective of this paper is to evaluate the effects of exchange rate changes on inflation in Iranian economy using quarterly time series data during 1379-1391 and a structural auto-regressive model (SVAR). Using quarterly data unit root test, stationary of time series has been tested in this study and then, the model has been estimated. In the period under review, the results of this study indicate that one of the most important factors and influencing on inflation is exchange rate fluctuations and generally exchange rate policies which has caused to a structural inflation in Iranian economy. Thus, adopted exchange rate policies in the economy including exchange rate integration policy and exchange rate stabilization policy, lead to inflation in Iranian economy.

Nowadays, the optimal and cost effective design and operation in power industry has always been of interest and in development and operation of the power industry, economic distribution of the load among fossil fuel power plants and minimizing operation cost are considered among main goals. One of the issues considered in load economic distribution is coordination between plants. Pump – storage power plants are of the type of hydroelectric power plants with motor function transfer energy from low-consumption hours to high-consumption hours. As a result, unusable and produced electric power surplus in off-peak hours is converted to potential energy.
This study has economically examined the construction of pumped-storage power plant next to the Pir-Taghi reservoir dam using the measures of engineering economics in 2014.Forthispurpose, the four scenarios of reservoir capacity of 1.5,2, 3and4million cubic meters were used. Results indicated that the best case is the reservoir capacity of 3million cubic meters. The value of net present value of the project has varied in various cases from the minimum of 2217 billion Rials in the case of 1.5 million cubic meters up to 3750 billion Rials in the case of 3 million cubic meters.The value of this index is a proper criterion for selecting the preferred case among economic options. The values of finished expenseper kilowhat of generated electricity vary from a minimum of 4248 Rials in the case of 2 million cubic meters up to 4302 Rials in the case of 4 million cubic meters.
In addition, the results of sensitivity analysis of the economic parameters to changes in the interest rate show that although by increasing interest rate the value of economic parameters is decreased, but the reservoir capacity of 3 million cubic meters has still economic justification. The results of sensitivity analysis of the economic parameters to the cost of the environment pollutants indicate that the elimination of the costs of the environment pollutants or increase them by 50% and 100% in each of the sites will not have a significant impact on their economic indicators.

The present article using an autoregressive model, studies the effect of the fluctuations of the oil price on the macro economy variables such as domestic gross production, money volume, price index and the government expenditure in Iran as the fourth oil exporter country. For this purpose it has used the data relating to the variables during the era of 1350-1390 (1971-2011) and the pattern of Vector Autoregressive (VAR). The results show that during the studied years regarding economic structure of our country the money volume has been increased along with the oil income rise which has raised the rate of inflammation. It has also shown that each oil volatility has a negative effect on the domestic gross production in Iran and this effect is being risen during the years. The fluctuations of oil price can impose important effects on the most countrie's economy. in addition to effecting on the economy of the oil importer countries, these fluctuations are considered as one of the main resources of disorders in the economy of oil exporter countries so that the rise of oil price causes a rise in foreign exchange income made by oil sale and it provides the possibilities of fast price rise, the rate of wages and imports in these counties.

One of the main objectives of the government intervention in the economy is to improve equality indices in the society. The economic policy's effects on the justice indices in the society is important for economic authorities. In this paper, a CGE model and Equivalent Variation index (EV) are used to forecast the impact of subsidies reform on the equality of welfare. CGE models with numerical simulations of economics in a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) form are able to assess effective forces on household welfare and also provide a clear numerical perspective of economic policy effects. To evaluate research topics, ten different scenarios of subsidies reform are simulated in two sections. In the first part of the study, indirect subsidies are removed in stages and in the second part, indirect subsidies are removed completely and then are repaid with different ratio to households, manufacturing sectors and government institutions directly in five scenarios. The results predict that by subsidies reform, reduced the welfare gap between households in all scenarios and the equality of welfare of the society is improved. One of the most important results of the paper is that more the subsidies share of governments and manufacturing decrease, the equality index in society will be greater. As well as the comparison of the examined scenarios suggest that, the inequality of welfare index in the repaid directly subsidy rather than scenarios without pay, decreases.

Many studies show that organic products have no side effects of current products. Due to the absence of a specific market for organic products in Iran¡ this study¡ using contingent valuation approach and willingness to pay estimate the value of its organic products. In the recent times due to the issue of human health and safety of food products is one of the most discussed issues in human life has become. The study included 300 families in Shiraz and select from the questionnaire to measure willingness to pay of double binary logit model is used. The results showed that the most important factor influencing the increase in demand in product quality and support producers of organic products can contribute to an increase in organic crop production. The results showed that the variables of age¡ education¡ weekly consumption of milk and inorganic¡ income¡ introduction to organic¡ organic orientation and whirligig of the importance of the nutritional value of the product and the dependent variable was a significant relationship exists significant interest in the relationship. Average willingness to pay for organic milk production 15 160 rials per kg¡ respectively.