پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 65 (تابستان 1396)

In the past few decades, the rapid growth of health expenditure among countries and considerable differences between per capita health expenditures in different countries, have led to extensive studies about determinants of health expenditures. The aim of this study is to identify such factors across different countries which can be put into distinct income groups. For this purpose, panel data regression technique for 148 countries from 1995 to 2013 with fixed effects model was used. The results show that, in contrast to previous studies which use macro data analysis, the effect of population ageing in upper-middle- and high-income countries, which face the greatest rate of population ageing, on health expenditures was shown to be positive at a significant level. Income as being not the sole factor associated with health expenditure, our results show that life expectation and the share of young population (under 14) are among important factors. Another driver of health expenditure was revealed to be the total government expenditure as a share of GDP that was insignificant only for low income countries. This observation might reflect the trade off in domestic health expenditures made by the low-income countries as a result of receiving international aids. The income elasticity for all groups was below unity and suggestive of health care to be a necessity good in all countries.

This paper examines the impact of oil revenues and institutions on the capacity of job creation in member-countries of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The main research question is that how can be injecting unplanned oil revenues into the economy of OPEC members and through what channels and mechanisms lead to inflict the productive capacities of these countries and limit job creation in these economies. In this regard, the hypothesis of research highlights the negative impact of oil revenues in an inefficient institutional framework on job creation capacity of oil exporting country’s economy. Accordingly, due to the severe Interweaving conditions of economy and policy in petroleum exporting countries, the theoretical model used in this study is based on the doctrine of institutional economics and to estimate the model and to test the hypothesis, we use data for 12 OPEC member countries over the period 2002-2014 in a panel-data econometric model.The results indicate that abundance of oil revenues in OPEC countries with inefficient infrastructure and institutions leads to decline in employment capacity. Statistical evidence also confirms the de-capacitation of employment in the economies of OPEC member countries through channels such as undermining the quality of institutions and over-reliance on imports in these countries.Based on these evidence, we come to the point that inconsiderate infusion of oil revenues in OPEC member countries in an inefficient institutional framework, limits the capacity of employment and in this way, their opportunities to achieve economic growth have become a threat to their development and growth.

This paper examines the impacts of fuel price reform on the technology mix of power plants and other outputs of the Iran electricity market. In this regard, Iran electricity market has been simulated by using an agent-based model for a long-term period. Then, as a result of fuel price reform, the changes in the outputs of the electricity market, including the average price, average efficiency, capacity and technology mix of generation has been studied and analyzed. The results show that, the current situation of technology mix of power plants is far from optimum conditions. Accordingly, the reform of fuel prices may change the returns and incentives of investment in different technologies so that, technology mix of power plants would face major changes, and by increasing share of more efficient power plants like combined cycle power plants, the average efficiency of electricity production increase from current 36% to more than 55%.

The aim of this study is assessment of the combination of asset and liability on the banking supervision ratings. In this paper Camels Rating model is used for banking supervision rating. Also, by using financial statements of Iranian bank for the period 2006-2014 and ordinal regression method, we have investigated the effect of composition of the portfolio's assets and liabilities on banks’ ratings. The results of model validity, significance of regression and the prediction power tests show that the model is correct and it is suitability for future analysis and the predictive power of the model is 89 percent. The results show that the riskier the asset portfolio, the less likely the banks to be ranked higher in future periods and the more the probability of losing banks’ ratings in future periods. In addition, the more the share of stable sources in banks’ portfolio of liabilities, the higher the probability of having better ratings and the less the probability of losing banks’ ratings in future periods.

Some researchers consider trade liberalization as a factor for increasing the quality of the environment. However, others argue that trade liberalization leads to some countries specialize in the production of pollution-intensive, energy-intensive or capital-intensive goods and therefore the quality of the environment is reduced. Since theory offers grounds for both positive and negative relationship between trade and the environment, the issue must be settled through empirical analysis. In this context, the main question here is how international trade affects quality of environment in oil exporting countries? For this purpose, in the form of composition, scale and technical effects, we construct a panel data analysis to identify the relationship between international trade and carbon emission of selected oil exporting countries during 1990–2011. Our results suggest that there is positive relationship between trade openness and carbon emission and thus, pollution heaven hypothesis for these countries is not rejected. Also, the relationship between per capita output and carbon emission is N-shape and scale effect is negative. Furthermore, increasing comparative advantage and foreign direct investment leads to a reduction in oil exporting countries’ carbon emissions; which respectively indicate scale and technical effects of the international trade to be negative.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of microcredit provided by Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation (IKRF) on preventing rural outflow migrations. This study is an applied research, its methodology is descriptive-analitical and the instrument used was questionnaire. Without any need for sampling, all 142 persons who received employment microcredits from IKRF in Khomein County in year 2014 were subjects of our study. Because of lack of access to all statistical population, questioning was conducted for 121 households and the resulting data were analyzed by using Wilcoxon test, t single sample, Pearson and structural equation modeling. The results of hypothesis tests using Pearson correlation coefficient show that microcredit provided by IKRF has a positive effect with beta 0/719 on the economic situation and household income and with beta coefficient of 0/340 on population sustainment with an error level of error of less than to %5. In addition, Pearson correlation coefficient for the relationship between household income and population sustainment is 0/369 for an error level of less than %5 and this result confirms this hypothesis. So creating jobs through microcredit and giving priority to investment for creation of new employment opportunities can be one of effective ways to prevent irrational migration from rural areas.

Microfinance programs emerged in mid 1980s. So, microfinance can be labeled as a new phenomenon. The reason for emergence and rapid development of microfinance programs can be weakness of former development strategies, especially those of financial development. In this research by using a three-dimension Delphi query, the important factors affecting microfinance at Iran have been explored. In the resources side, deposits are composed of Qard al-Hasan, donation, subrogation and saving. In the uses side, the loans are divided into consumption (general consumptions and emergencies) and investing purposes. The institutions active in microfinance are divided into two groups of banks (commercial banks and financial holdings) and financial institutions (for profit and non-profit). The group lending and solidarity responsibility were underlined at legal-jurisprudence. At the application aspects, emphasis on usage of electronic systems and separate report of loans by their types and contracts is noticeable.