پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 69 (تابستان 1397)

Quantum games is a relatively new inter-disciplinary research field in theoretical physics and game theory. It tries to resolve issues like "Prisoner's Dilemma" from classical games and improve efficiency of a game by applying quantum rules and assumptions to it. In this paper we study the effects of "sales integration" in Iran's petrochemical products on the profit of petrochemicals industry by using a quantum game model. At present, there are over 50 petrochemical factories in the country that all of them are owned by private sector. These factories were selling their products in an integrated framework through a government-owned commerce company until 2008, when they were privatized. The results show that integration of petrochemical products sales can improve the profitability of the companies individually and as a whole industry.

In this paper, we explore the level of monopoly in petrochemical products of Iran and the fluctuations of price using the trading data of these products in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME). Considering the level of monopoly in this market, we are looking for a solution that lowers the gap between price and quantity of current market with those of perfect competition market. Our solution is termed “Guarantee” which is a kind of security that is issued in a quantity that equates supply to market demand in the next period. This creates a two-stage game in which we satisfy the expectations for the demand of second stage in the first stage. We develop a model and show that in this
solution, the equilibrium will have lower price and higher quantity in which only the shocks of the second stage are affecting equilibrium price and quantity. Thus, in a situation without an unexpected shock, the price and quantity of market will be equal to those of perfect competition equilibrium. Moreover, we examine the underlying prediction of this new tool by analyzing the performance of an existing security called “Salaf”. These two have the nature of future trading in common and our empirical test show that introducing “Salaf” lowers prices, as predicted by theory.

Empirical studies show that establishment of World Trade Organization (WTO) had a significant role in increasing growth of international trade. After removal of international sanctions, membership in WTO is one of the most important economic challenges for Iran. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential effects of trade negotiations and WTO membership on growth of manufacturing industries, by exploring and simulating based on experiences of acceded countries. To meet this end, we estimated an endogenous economic growth model, using longitudinal data from 179 countries, including 36 newly acceded countries, during the period 1980 to 2015, with dynamic panel data and instrumental variables (Panel GMM) approach. We have used the proportion of value added in manufacturing sector to GDP as a proxy for industrial growth. Also, we have included two dummy variables for negotiation process and membership period to separate the effects related to each of them. Our results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between growth of manufacturing sector and WTO accessing negotiation process, as well as WTO membership. It means that, the effects of accession to the WTO on growth of manufacturing sector is not limited to the period after the full membership, but also - because of required reforms in the economic institutions and policies - the process of accession negotiations can affect economic growth as well.

After world recession in 2008, many papers focused on non-linear relationship between debt and growth. Based on traditional theories, a medium level of increase in debt can improve welfare and economic growth, but a high level of it damages the economy. According to recent studies, the non-linear relationship between public debt and growth is conceivable for other debt items such as household debt and firm debt. In this paper, we test the non-linear relationship between household debt and the growth of per capita income in 31 Iranian provinces during period 2005-2015. In addition, we analyses the different threshold points in Iranian provinces related to above-mentioned non-linear relationship. Based on our findings, we accept the hypothesis of reverse-U relationship between debt and growth in addition to the effect of income inequality on heterogeneity of this relationship in Iranian provinces. The results indicate that provinces with high income inequality have high threshold point than regions with low income inequality, but in the latter ones the sensitivity of economic growth to change of debt is higher.

In Economic literature, different dimensions of financial development have been scrutinized. In this regard, what is important about bank-based financial systems is the distribution of loans and credits among different economic sectors. Actually, in non-competitive markets characterized by imperfect and incomplete information, any sort of distribution of credits and loans which is based on profit maximization for banks will not necessarily result in maximizing the collective interests of a country and it can even have adverse effects for the whole society. With regard to the issue described, this paper aims to study the role of distribution of credits and loans among different sectors on economic growth in Iran. To achieve this goal, we have used and analyzed time series data for the period 1984 to 2015 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The findings of this paper show that the logarithmic coefficient of financial growth index (calculated as the ratio of total outstanding credits to GDP) is positive and significant in both short-term and long-term periods. This means that financial development plays a positive role in economic growth. On the other hand, the estimated coefficient for the ratio of loans allocated to production sectors to loans allocated to non-production sectors is also positive and significant in both short-term and long-term periods. This suggests that loans allocated to production sectors have a positive effect on economic growth. In fact, one can assert that although an increase in bank loans and credits (actually, the ratio of total outstanding loans and credits to GDP) has a positive effect on economic growth, the more these loans and credits are inclined towards production, the more the magnitude of economic growth being stimulated.

This study investigates the causal linkages between insurance (divided between life and non-life insurance) and globalization in Group D8 countries by focusing on country-specific analysis for the period 1999–2011. For this purpose, we have used the penetration rate of life and non-life insurance and KOF globalization index (as a proxy of globalization) as primary variables. The method used in this study is based on the panel causality test provided by Konya (2006). This method is based on the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model and Wald tests with the country specific bootstrap critical values. Also, this test accounts for cross-dependency and heterogeneity among the members of the panel. Experimental results show that the causality between life and non-life insurance and globalization are not the same in different countries of D8 group, when considering their particular circumstances. For the case of Iran, only a one way causality from the globalization to non-life insurance is verified.

Many years have passed since the adoption of planning mechanism in the development process of Iran. However, Iran has been failed to achieve this goal. The investigation of different levels of decision making in Iran shows that two factors are among the main reasons that lead the planning structure of Iran to be interwoven with a circle of underdevelopment. These two factors are lack of attention to the element of goal orientation, which means lack of proper understanding of concept of development in the planning process, and ignoring the element of rationality, which means not paying attention to the nature of man, his way of thinking and the collective identity of his decisions and actions. In this study, we have used the theoretical foundations of Goulet's classification of rationality and two criteria of coordination and commitment in the implementation of programs to study the interaction between rationality of different planning groups. Then, we have represented some experiences of decision-making in Iran to identify the dominant rationality in planning system of Iran. Our findings show that decision-making priorities in Iran have been derived from a reductionist interaction rather than an efficient interaction between rationalities and it was political rationality that dominated at various levels of decision-making.

Currently, National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company is the exclusive distributor of various petroleum products all over Iran. High price of land in large cities and small amounts of revenue creates a waek competitive environment in which private sector is not motivated enough to invest on construction of gas stations, hence this situation leads to a shortage of gas stations in the country. One of the ways to overcome this insufficiency is to use capacities of private sector in the process of petroleum products distribution. In order to deregulate the market for distribution of petroleum products in the country, it is necessary to reform its structure. However, implementing this change should happen gradually and in different stages. Also, in all stages the government should supervise the execution of the task. In this paper, three stages of restructuring the market for petroleum products distribution in the country has been proposed. The first stage is to creat the necessary conditions for establishment of qualified firms which their duty is to receive petroleum products from oil depots and to distribute the products in filling stations. Because petroleum products in Iran have subsidized prices, it is necessary for the government to determine the commission rate paid to private firms entering this field in a way that their activity is economically viable. In this paper, by considering current and capital costs and using economic engineering- feasibility model proposed by United Nations Industrial Development Organization- and with the help of COMFAR III Expert software, we have calculated the commission rate payable to distribution companies for different values of land prices. Calculation results show that if land price considered to be zero, net commission rate payable to private distribution companies for one liter of petroleum product should be 783 IRRs. In conditions in which the distribution company is owner of either out-of-town or center of province, this number should be 808 and 1153 IRRs respectively. This number for a case in which stations are constructed by the distribution companies in combined locations: centers of provices, other cities and out-of-town stations, is calculated to be 956 IRRs.

Tourism Industry has important role in the job creating and economic development. Because of it, identifying effective factors on foreign tourism demand and attractiveness of tourism destinations is important. We used panel data of incoming tourist and characteristics of tourism destinations in 147 countries between years 2007 to 2015 to examine which factors have significant effect on foreign tourism demand. We used three aggregate indices to identify characteristics of tourism destinations that are regulatory framework, business environment and infrastructure, and human, cultural and natural resources.  Our results show that business environment, tourism infrastructures such as air and ground transportation infrastructure and price competitiveness have significant effects on foreign tourism demand. We have also used thirteen more detailed indices of tourism destination characteristics and show that safety and security (such as the costliness of common crime and violence as well as terrorism, and the extent to which police services can be relied upon for protection from crime) ,  natural and cultural resources (such as cultural heritage and nationally protected areas)  and price competitiveness indices have a significant effect on foreign tourism demand.

The purpose of this paper is to revisit the relationship between inflation and output gap by using wavelet coherence approach. This approach attempts to combine the classical time series analysis with frequency domain analysis, and presents the advantages of assessing the co-movement of two series in the context of both time and frequency dimentions. Using continuous wavelet transform approach, the relationship between inflation and output gap, by considering GDP with oil sector and without oil sector, was studied by annual and quarterly data from 1959 to 2016 in Iran. The results showed that in the long run, the relashionship between inflation and output gap is positive. This result confirms existence of a Phillips curve with negative slope in the long run. However, the relationship between the two variables in the short term and also for the period before Islamic Revolution reflects a Phillips curve with positive slope. Friedman noted this type of curve for high inflation economies for a period of several years in 1977 in his Nobel Prize lecture. This result could have been very important in testing Phillips curve theory in Iranian economy.