فصلنامه راهبرد اجتماعی فرهنگی
پیاپی 21 (زمستان 1395)

This article aims to prioritize challenges of environmental policies in Iran based on Jones Phase Model. For this purpose, we have used a questionnaire. Statistical population in this project are administrative and scientific experts. As the first step, we chose 50 persons of them using snowballing sampling method. Then, we modified the meaningful quotes. For the second step, the modified questionnaire was sent to 400 experts and they were asked to prioritize degree of importance of each meaningful quote based on five values of Likert Scale. Findings show that the main challenges of the environmental policies in Iran that cause decreasing qualitative and quantitative indexes of critical resources are related to implementation of policies. Lack of coordination between different sectors of administration or state, inadequate supervision and monitoring of policy implementation and laws, and, finally, lack of guarantees to implement these policies and laws are the three main challenges of environmental policies in Iran.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, due to the utilization of hydrocarbon resources and positioned in the desert belt of the Earth, is one of the most important countries influenced and affected by climate change. Based on voluntary commitment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the country committed to reducing greenhouse emissions from 4 up to 12 % of its Business as Usual (BAU) at 2030 and, as well, take important steps in increasing its adaptation level. Identifying the national level of Structure, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats (SWOT) and also challenges and capabilities of the country to achieve an efficient strategic plan on climate change is the subject of the current article. In the current paper, in addition to identifying our national challenges resulted by the national development programs and strategies, describing the National Strategic Programs on Climate Change based on the expert consultation has been conducted. This program is based on four components of emission reduction, water resources management, food security and agriculture, and natural resources and biodiversity (biological resources) to examine the challenges, strengths, and weaknesses, and through a conceptual structure find its way out at two levels of macro and executive policies.

At the end of the Cold War, a new era began in security attitudes that made a review in the concept of "security and threats" necessary. This review caused approaches to develop in international security that emphasized on the future of security multidimensional. In the new paradigm, along with military hardware factors, political, economic, socio-cultural, and environmental factors are considered as they can act as a threat to international security. Climate change is considered as one of the important international issues in the globalization age. This change in Earth environment can be cause due to the danger in climate change in Earth. Today our lives depend on climate change. In the international scene, effects of threats in relation between countries are observed. For example, Darfur War is the first challenge in the field of climate change. This threat, in addition to social tensions, also will follow political unrest and violent conflicts. This subject is acknowledged in United Nation Framework Convention and also follows up to the Secretary General and checks Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Security Council as the threat against peace and international security.

One of the most important of global issues is Environmental Diplomacy and its Impact on International Interactions and World Peace. In this regard, Diplomacy is a practical tool and facilitator in international relations for the ultimate goal of peace and tranquility. Similarly, although we differentiate between international law and international environmental law, international environmental law is needed to be adapted on changing outside world. However, unbroken continuity of international law and international environmental law is surely one of necessary components of the continuity of environmental diplomacy. Therefore, international interactions could facilitate the emergence of international diplomacy during international conferences. In this way, development of international environmental law is affected by the process of diplomacy. We must note that on this issue, the only way out of the environmental hazards and ravages is environmental diplomacy in the light of international cooperation. Active diplomacy within the framework of international interactions between developed and developing countries is the geopolitical understanding of international environmental negotiations. In this research, this is explained within the framework of international interactions in the context of environmental diplomacy.

There are numerous rivers and trans-boundaries between Iran and its neighbors on the one hand and reduction of water resources and water pollution on the other that have added to the importance of international waters and converted it into a source of dispute and tension between countries acquiring provided in the future. International law in recent decades in the attempt to regulate the operation of joint international waters, tries to assume principles and rules to prevent pollution and protection of international waters as part of the regional environment. Ratification of the 1997 Convention is an important step in the development of contemporary international environmental law and has raised many legal principles of international environmental law, including the principle of "equitable utilization and rational use of resources", "prohibition damage on the territory of another State", and the principle of "international cooperation". In the absence of bilateral and multilateral agreements, it seems that the Convention for cooperation between Iran and neighboring countries in the field of protection, management, and contamination of these waters, according to a joint management of legal framework, is to be considered as one of the environmental aspects of cooperation between Iran and neighbors.

Escalation of climate changes in the world will lead to serious effects on urban environments and causes irreversible damage. The 10-year forecast of changes in climatic parameters in Tehran metropolis, which is always facing increasing environmental problems, indicates that the rate of precipitation and temperature until 2021 will increase more sharply compared to previous periods. These changes can lead to serious effects on and risks for the urban environment. Identifying the current and future effects of these changes on the urban environment can contribute to the planning for decreasing these risks and benefiting from the opportunities. In previous studies, the most important potential risks of changes in climatic parameters in Tehran are identified and, in this study, 11 potential risks of changes in temperature and precipitation in Tehran are chosen and then, by employing Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP), are weighted, ranked, and prioritized. Following that, some strategies are provided for preventing and decreasing the risks of and adapting with the changes in climatic parameters in order to be employed in 5-year planning of Tehran city. These strategies are developed using SWOT and Internal & External (IE) Matrix and consequently, in order to quantify the strategies, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) is employed. The results of this study indicate that the most optimal strategies are the defensive strategies.

Climate change and its consequences will change human life enormously during coming decades. This has caused the international community to place high priority to conduct evaluation, in order to formulate the necessary control strategies as part of its top actions. Iran is ranked the ninth-largest emitter of GHG emissions in 2015 and, during Paris negotiation, Iran pledged 4% emissions cut by 2030 relative to BAU, and furthermore, if enjoying full technical and financial supports from international community, this could increase to 12%. In the light of this decision, the present research work pays attention to the analyses of Iran’s GHG emissions sectorial trends during recent decades. Evaluations indicate that the pattern is uptrend and power plants, residential-commercial buildings, and transportation are the greatest emitter sectors. Analysis of driving forces influencing the long-term emissions (1971-2012) show that factors such as population, GDPcapita, energy intensity, and carbon intensity are the most effective driving forces with impact coefficients .94, .004, -0.035, and -0.694, respectively. Evaluation of development-revenue patterns from GHG emissions perspective confirms that a large amount of fuels would have to be consumed in industrial sectors with the least economic efficiency. In addition, small industrial units (with less than 10 employees), despite high energy consumption, cannot compete with large industries in revenue production. A closer examination, from justice and equitable distribution of facilities, driving forces, and responsibilities, among provinces in Iran revealed an unbalanced and far from justice existing structure. International reduction goals are not achievable unless adequate identification of current circumstances with a broad view to find solution to existing problems and such analyses and models, as developed in this research, can be used for better understanding of needs and parameters for the development of a model based on equity and sustainability.

Water issues in Iran today have become the "problem" that requires action, and it is essential to find its nature and causes and dealing with solutions through public discussions of all stakeholders. In this context, the present article, in the first section, has provided an overview of the evolution of water governance in Iran. In the second part, with the purpose of the analysis problem, it draws the qualitative and quantitative portraying of water consumption according to numerous national and international reports and compares the water situation in Iran with other countries. The third section uses the interpretation of doctrine and system of reference in the public policy-making framework and explains the most important challenges of these sections alone and trans-sectional. The claim is that the reason for the current situation of water is beyond the sectional weakness and focuses on the level of authority, philosophy, and doctrine that have not been formed based on respect for nature and sustainable development. The final section relies on the recognized challenges and is dedicated to providing policy guidelines.

In the modern global approach toward security, a priority is given to threats for national security caused by instability, destruction, improper distribution, and limitations for some environmental resources. Therefore, it is essential to recognize vulnerable regions and the effects of these challenges on national security with regards to the vast and inevitable consequences of environmental threats and importance of preventing security issues in order to block them from turning into a crisis. This study seeks to answer the question that what are the most important environmental challenges of Iran? And among them, which one is more vitally critical? Consequently, the hypothesis advanced by the present research is that, through the conceptual expansion perspective and multiplicity in security dimensions, Islamic Republic of Iran faces various threats that, among them, environmental threats constitute a higher priority and complexity. Therefore, two main points are to be considered about Iran’s environmental security: 1) understanding and recognizing the expansive concept of security that includes environmental threats as well; 2) identifying causes and drives of environmental changes affecting Iran security. To do so, the present study uses Delphi method and semi-structured interviews to collect, codify, and prioritize the most important challenges affecting Iran’s environmental security. The study concludes that, after identifying the medium weight among the 15 present standards, issues related to water crisis and air pollution because of their critical and security conditions and aspects, are essentially and vitally important. Therefore, what constitutes the significance of this study is prioritizing and positioning environmental security and recognizing a set of most critical environmental challenges that Islamic Republic of Iran is currently facing.