نشریه اقتصاد توسعه و برنامه ریزی
سال چهارم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1394)

The exchange rate is one of important macroeconomics indices which its fluctuation has large effects on economic growth and inflation rate. Therefore, the policymakers should take into account when analyzing exchange rate behavior.Applying the econometrics of OLS and SUR methods, the present study uses a yearly time series of 1961 to 2009 to estimate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Iranian economic growth and inflation rate. Both methods of Cover (1992) and GARCH are applied to calculate the fluctuations. In addition to the exchange rate fluctuations, the effects of oil price fluctuations, calculated using a GARCH method, is included in the model. The effect of exchange rate and oil price fluctuations along with other policy variables such as money liquidity and government expenditures are considered in the model.The estimated results show that the exchange rate and oil price fluctuations affect the economic growth and inflation rate:The positive and negative exchange rate fluctuations have direct effect on economic growth.The positive and negative exchange rate fluctuations have negative and positive effects on inflation rate, respectively.The (expected) exchange rate changed has a positive effect on the economic growth. This effect on inflation rate is negative.The oil price fluctuations have a positive effect on economic growth but a negative effect on inflation rate.Taking into account of both money liquidity and government expenditure changes, the effect of liquidity change is positive on economic growth and inflation rate, whereas; the government expenditure change only affects the economic growth positively. Overall, the effect of liquidity change overcomes the effect of government expenditure. Comparing the effects of exchange rate and oil price changes on economic growth and inflation, the impact effect of exchange rate changes is more pronounce.

In recent years, the role and importance of information have been quickly entered into the theories and policies. All reforms of health policies, including voluntary health insurance are necessarily in need of addressing the problem of asymmetric information.The present study examined the relationship between health risk and the probability of voluntary health insurance using probit model. Then, the causes of the correlation between voluntary health information and health risk were identified by ordered probit model. The results of the study show a negative correlation between health risk and probability of voluntary health insurance which is related to moral hazards in insurance market. The main reason is the incompetence and inefficiency of insurance system. According to the study, the negative correlation is related to the information that insurance companies obtained and screenings in the insurance market by choosing strategies for dealing with moral hazard not the heterogeneous risk preferences of individuals.

The efficient and strong financial markets are assumed the main part of economic. Without having an efficient finance could not attain to financial development. In fact the turnover of optimal economic in every society is depended on to two part of real and finance is strong and efficient. The activity of both parts is accounted the necessity and sufficient condition for and economics system. With regard to financial liberalization and openness and the impact of financial development is the most topic important of economics policy. based on impact achieving economics growth and maintaining an economy without dependence to foreign countries this study is besides on examining the assumption that developing the trade and financial development cause economic growth and the impact of financial volatility is decreasing economic growth in selected Asian countries during 1980-2010. In order to finding the best solution in the way of economic policy to economic growth. Therefore the econometrics approach is based on Ranceier and loayza (2006) in panel data and generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. The empirical results show that financial development has growth impact while the shocks of financial depth(financial fragility) has negative impact on economic growth.

The efficient and strong financial markets are assumed the main part of economic. Without having an efficient finance could not attain to financial development. In fact the turnover of optimal economic in every society is depended on to two part of real and finance is strong and efficient. The activity of both parts is accounted the necessity and sufficient condition for and economics system. With regard to financial liberalization and openness and the impact of financial development is the most topic important of economics policy. based on impact achieving economics growth and maintaining an economy without dependence to foreign countries this study is besides on examining the assumption that developing the trade and financial development cause economic growth and the impact of financial volatility is decreasing economic growth in selected Asian countries during 1980-2010. In order to finding the best solution in the way of economic policy to economic growth. Therefore the econometrics approach is based on Ranceier and loayza (2006) in panel data and generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. The empirical results show that financial development has growth impact while the shocks of financial depth(financial fragility) has negative impact on economic growth.

The main propose of this research is the survey of affecting globalization on tax revenue in Iran by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. So other variables such as real per capita income (as an indicator of economic development), degree of urbanization, the share of agriculture in gross domestic product, dependency ratio (as an index of social and economic structure) and exchange rate, effects on tax revenue have been investigated. Stationary test of variables in the model is shown based on adjusted Dickey – Fuller. For the results of this test, the time series used in this model are characteristics I(0) and I(1). In this study, the pattern Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the method of least squares for first or more order differencing is used. Dynamic model estimation results indicate a tendency towards long run equilibrium model. Additionally, globalization has positive effect on the proportion of total tax and the tax on trade in GDP

One of the important issues of Economic and financial researchers are the issue of the effect of economic variables on stock market performance. Because investors have different combinations of cash in their portfolios of financial assets, Shares, bank deposits, bonds, Gold and currency are Maintain Changes in monetary, exchange rate, inflation and interest rates, Individuals, demand is affected to hold each of assets including demand for the stock. This in turn affects the equities. It is believed that the price of the stock by some fundamental economic variables such a Inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate and liquidity, are determined. In this study, the effects of three important economic variables, such as inflation, money supply, exchange rate returns on the market index is investigated. Period of time between contract research (2007-2012) and using a state - space have been analyzed. State-space model is a useful tool for dynamic system state variables are unobserved the results of the econometric models used to study space - the show. There is no Significant and positive relationship between inflation and the liquidity and efficiency of the stock exchange. Also there is significant negative correlation between the rate of return on the stock exchange there.